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Topic: What can we expect the price to decline/raise to? (Read 2600 times)

sr. member
Activity: 387
Merit: 250
Think about this:

How many dollars are in the world?.. and... How many bitcoins? $>>>B

How many new dollars are created each day in the world?... and... How many bitcoins? $>>>B


So...

If time => Infinity; then

Value(Bitcoin) >>>>> Value($DOLAR)


Maths are cool Smiley

+1

haha your a genious!
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1001
rippleFanatic
I speculate that the bitcoin bubble began this year, and that when fully deflated the bubble will bottom out at April 2011 prices, unless there is a dramatic increase in the bitcoin economy before the bottom.  Say $1.

There is a dramatic increase in said economy, reflected by the increase in mining and the increase in exchange volume.

Using the price and difficulty correlation, I speculate we're at the bottom of the deflated bubble now between $10 and $15 (historic low in price over difficulty ratio - see charts in my sig).

Rally or bubble reinflation starts again when price breaks through resistance at $18-$20 a second time, which will attract more mining and speculating.  Price increase will outpace the difficulty (difficulty is a lagging indicator), then price corrects but to a higher bottom, supported by the higher difficulty. 

Lather, rinse, and repeat.
member
Activity: 63
Merit: 10
Think about this:

How many dollars are in the world?.. and... How many bitcoins? $>>>B

How many new dollars are created each day in the world?... and... How many bitcoins? $>>>B


So...

If time => Infinity; then

Value(Bitcoin) >>>>> Value($DOLAR)


Maths are cool Smiley
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
I yam what I yam. - Popeye
If it does continue to slide all the way to 0 (which I highly doubt) I will be slightly sad that a great experiment brought a negative result.

No more no less.

The great experiment will bring a negative result if the markets go below 0

He's got a point there! lol
hero member
Activity: 797
Merit: 1017
Here, you can use mine for free.


sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
If it does continue to slide all the way to 0 (which I highly doubt) I will be slightly sad that a great experiment brought a negative result.

No more no less.

The great experiment will bring a negative result if the markets go below 0
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
I yam what I yam. - Popeye
As of today the single undisputed most valuable currency in the world is worth...(can you guess)...ONE DOLLAR!

As long a bitcoin does not go down to 0 I could not care less how it moves because I plan to try and take advantge of it if; 1) it remains stable at whatever price 2) it keeps going up 3) it fluctuates (like almost everything else does).

If it does continue to slide all the way to 0 (which I highly doubt) I will be slightly sad that a great experiment brought a negative result.

No more no less.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
I speculate that the bitcoin bubble began this year, and that when fully deflated the bubble will bottom out at April 2011 prices, unless there is a dramatic increase in the bitcoin economy before the bottom.  Say $1.

Perhaps. However longer term I still think were looking at $50+ in the near future.


So whats your long term ? Think we could see + $20 stable within the year ?
legendary
Activity: 1022
Merit: 1001
I speculate that the bitcoin bubble began this year, and that when fully deflated the bubble will bottom out at April 2011 prices, unless there is a dramatic increase in the bitcoin economy before the bottom.  Say $1.

Perhaps. However longer term I still think were looking at $50+ in the near future.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1010
Borsche
I still do not understand who is buying these coins above $10 dollars. They really will fall below $10, and probably stabalize around $5-$8, then it will be slow growth from this point.


there are two kinds of people - one that buys when the price gets low, and one that waits until the price hits some magic number they have in their head out of nowhere. first kind of people do have some immediate losses but profit later. second kind keep waiting, forever.

It takes one guy with measly 100k usd to decide the price is right for it to make a sharp u-turn, because everyone then jumps in. and you will be left behind waiting for the price to stabilize. It may happen at 10, may happen at 5, may happen at 1, nobody knows this and nobody can know this. So unless you take risks, you will stay behind. Easy as that.
full member
Activity: 139
Merit: 100
What's Your Gig?
full member
Activity: 139
Merit: 100
What's Your Gig?
I'm curious. How can you predict the value of Bitcoin if there is no specific use?

Let's say BTC was used as currency in a popular mainstream game. Then you could maybe predict it's value. There would be a specific use to base your prediction on. I don't think there is a use, at this point, that would justify any predictions.

If a service that depends on BTC comes out tomorrow, and is a Big Hit, the value would skyrocket. How can you predict that?
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
Being that the bitcoin has no real value other then collector/speculator value, it's price will continue to fall as the collectors speculators and not continue to buy up all these coins.

I still do not understand who is buying these coins above $10 dollars. They really will fall below $10, and probably stabalize around $5-$8, then it will be slow growth from this point.

THis currency has  proven to continue to fall slowly, most speculators will not continue to risk buying at these high prices knowing that there is a down trend. They have to be crazy to actually continue to buy. The big holders of bitcoins have to be crazy not to have sold a good portion of their coins above $20.
legendary
Activity: 1246
Merit: 1015
Strength in numbers
I just had a conversation in which the most brilliant economist to ever walk the earth explained why the value of bitcoin was going up 100x this year. Unfortunately, I can't remember any of his reasons or even his name.

Should I start a thread about it?
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 102
Like I said before, were in a dangerous time for bitcoins, its either make it or break it right here right now.  THe feelings from the MTGOX crash is just coming down, trickling down because it took time for people to get there cash out, there coins out, u see the volume of sales has dropped big time, some went to other exchanges, going to be tough to keep the price up until we get some more positive reports, and more businesses online and offline accepting it.  This is what I am hoping happens as I believe in the concept of a bitcoin.

If you are suggesting that the current drop is due to the MtGox incident, I highly doubt it.  People didn't have to get their coins in, they already had them in there, they simply couldn't sell until MtGox came back online.  I'm guessing what happened was someone who had a ton of coins, decided to take profits since the price had slowly been trickling down for the last week.  This caused a sharp plummet, and a lot of people freaked and followed suit.  There wasn't some simultaneous mass loss of confidence in Bitcoins.  I don't know the future, if I did I would have a lot more success on the stock market.  I can tell you that when you have a major sell off like you do today, it is a good time to buy while the price is discounted. 

I have a few BTC from mining, and I can tell you personally there is no way I will be selling at the current price.  I have confidence it will rebound.  Hopefully sooner rather than later.  Once the "weak hands" jump out, it means the only people left willing to sell will demand a higher price, and it should come back up. 

I'll stand by this prediction whether it comes true or not.  This is how I interpret these events at this point in time.  Who knows what I'll believe after tomorrow.
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
I don't remember who nor can I find the thread

I'm not making any predictions..
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 501
Stephen Reed
I speculate that the bitcoin bubble began this year, and that when fully deflated the bubble will bottom out at April 2011 prices, unless there is a dramatic increase in the bitcoin economy before the bottom.  Say $1.
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
Like I said before, were in a dangerous time for bitcoins, its either make it or break it right here right now.  THe feelings from the MTGOX crash is just coming down, trickling down because it took time for people to get there cash out, there coins out, u see the volume of sales has dropped big time, some went to other exchanges, going to be tough to keep the price up until we get some more positive reports, and more businesses online and offline accepting it.  This is what I am hoping happens as I believe in the concept of a bitcoin.
full member
Activity: 196
Merit: 101
Can you cite that economist?

What happens when your prediction is wrong? I bet you will stop replying to this thread...

It reminds me of the scores of people who kept repeating how the price will drop to the single digits once MtGox came back online. It didn't.
member
Activity: 77
Merit: 11
Twitter:@watersNYC
Can you cite that economist?

What happens when your prediction is wrong? I bet you will stop replying to this thread...
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