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Topic: What do you base your speculation on? (Read 2807 times)

sr. member
Activity: 379
Merit: 250
September 12, 2012, 04:38:51 PM
#30
Is the fixed volume candle much more effective than fixed time candle ?
I had never thought about this idea of fixed volume candle, but it seems to make a lot of sense

I have tried fixed time, fixed volume, and even fixed volatility candles. Fixed volume seems to work the best.

The idea actually comes from Whitehead's Process Philosophy. Time is probably not what we think it is.

very interesting. do you happen to have a chart or link with a fixed volume bitcoin chart?

Can you check bitcoin-analytics.com charts which are calculated for predefined volumes, are those charts close to what you were thinkning about?

Not really, no.

None of that gives you a probability distribution for price, and provides no real guidance for how to set your personal risk levels. I know how much to risk because I solve for it, continually. As new data comes in the curves change and there is a whole new solution set to search through, it is adaptable to the market and my own personal market positions. This gives me a personal perspective of the market that nobody else has and that is what provides an edge. As long as everyone looks at the same charts that information gets priced into the market quickly and can make it difficult to pull in profits. Few have managed to train themselves to recognize useful patterns in real time, but this is getting harder to do, even for the best of them, because of the algos that do the same thing. Ultimately, it's going to be a war with the machines.

I can understand that what you are talking is far from what felix was asking. I believe his question was not about probablities but about charts calculated for fixed volumes, that is why I asked my question.
sr. member
Activity: 412
Merit: 250
September 12, 2012, 08:14:46 AM
#29


My palantir never lies
sr. member
Activity: 379
Merit: 250
September 12, 2012, 05:41:34 AM
#28
Is the fixed volume candle much more effective than fixed time candle ?
I had never thought about this idea of fixed volume candle, but it seems to make a lot of sense

I have tried fixed time, fixed volume, and even fixed volatility candles. Fixed volume seems to work the best.

The idea actually comes from Whitehead's Process Philosophy. Time is probably not what we think it is.

very interesting. do you happen to have a chart or link with a fixed volume bitcoin chart?

Can you check bitcoin-analytics.com charts which are calculated for predefined volumes, are those charts close to what you were thinkning about?
hero member
Activity: 700
Merit: 500
daytrader/superhero
September 11, 2012, 11:03:17 PM
#27
Trending.

First off, I wont jump in if the market is too flat. You can make money off the minor swings in a flat market, but you risk getting caught with your pants down because it could trend in either direction quickly. This may mean staying out of the market for a couple weeks until a trend forms.

When the price starts trending upward heavily, I find a comfortable entry point as close to the bottom of the trends trading range as possible. This takes a lot of chart watching, and a little bit of luck. I define my exit points right away. I plan the top price I want to sell at (generally a little above the current trade range) and my low price to minimize losses in case of a crash (generally 25% of my total unrealized gains).

If I'm not confident in the market, I stay out, and most importantly, I don't trade on emotion. I stick to my strategy.
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
September 11, 2012, 10:44:51 PM
#26
This thread delivers  Grin
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1001
September 11, 2012, 09:54:21 PM
#25
It's obviously driven primarily by the price of a shave and a haircut:




Two bit(coin)s!
legendary
Activity: 1708
Merit: 1020
September 11, 2012, 02:46:40 PM
#24
Is the fixed volume candle much more effective than fixed time candle ?
I had never thought about this idea of fixed volume candle, but it seems to make a lot of sense

I have tried fixed time, fixed volume, and even fixed volatility candles. Fixed volume seems to work the best.

The idea actually comes from Whitehead's Process Philosophy. Time is probably not what we think it is.

very interesting. do you happen to have a chart or link with a fixed volume bitcoin chart?
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 251
September 10, 2012, 01:35:20 PM
#23
Is the fixed volume candle much more effective than fixed time candle ?
I had never thought about this idea of fixed volume candle, but it seems to make a lot of sense
hero member
Activity: 740
Merit: 500
Hello world!
September 10, 2012, 01:19:33 PM
#22
I was thinking that press coverage, social media buzz and google search statistics would feature prominently with all of you as sources.

Is this not so?
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1001
rippleFanatic
September 10, 2012, 01:13:06 PM
#21
It beats the market in the time period that I test in, that is my fitness criteria. Even despite spotty execution I have more BTC than I started with every month.

What time range for holding periods does your model calculate?

I'm not quite sure what you are asking. In order to follow the model I would be resetting orders with each candle. As a new candle comes in the curves are recalculated and converged, risk levels are optimized and a new set of orders are placed.

I have found it to be fruitless to issue any kind of public report from the model because the output doesn't really mean anything unless you are trading the model rigorously. There is no set 'holding period'. Candles come in according to how fast the market is trading according to volume. Right now I am using candles of a constant amount of volume, about 14k BTC.

Ah, well that leads to my follow-up question: do you use market orders or limit orders?
legendary
Activity: 826
Merit: 1001
rippleFanatic
September 10, 2012, 12:56:59 PM
#20
It beats the market in the time period that I test in, that is my fitness criteria. Even despite spotty execution I have more BTC than I started with every month.

What time range for holding periods does your model calculate?
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 251
September 10, 2012, 03:32:16 AM
#19
Multi-variant empirical Bayesian recursion. Model risk parameters chosen through a simulated annealing process.

I am still waiting for the day you share anything more substantial than that Smiley

Bayesian recursion is something that is understood, I'm not inventing anything here. I am using empirical Bayes because I am not smart enough to choose a prior that works better than an empirical curve. The eight variants that I am using now come from a constant volume series. That is, I first redimension the time series into candles of similar volume. That bit is not hard, although, sometimes when I make a change to the model I have a hard time figuring out how to get the posterior to converge. The hard part is figuring out where to set risk parameters, that is the maximum amount of available liquidity to place in any given order. Too little and profits are lost from not enough trade volume, too much and the risk is liquidity. Balancing skewness and kurtosis risk is tricky and the search space for the model is large. It is probably either an NP-complete or NP-hard problem actually. The best way I have discovered so far to find solutions that meet my fitness criteria, within my computing budget, is a form of simulated annealing. This is also something that is understood, I am not inventing anything.

Thanks, I don't quite understand what you are talking about but that may be the point Wink

Can you say for your model to be back-tested in a rigorous way based upon available past data or is there still some part of it prone to subjectivity?

Specifically, I back test over the last 400 constant volume candles, right now that means that each candle is for price activity over a span of about 14k BTC of volume. The data used for backtesting goes back about 100 days, I don't actually find it useful to go back any farther.


As someone who build models for a living (system biology), I like what you're talking about.
Still, my question is : Does it work ?

It beats the market in the time period that I test in, that is my fitness criteria. Even despite spotty execution I have more BTC than I started with every month.

Do you think your time period is significant enough ?
I really need to take some time off to play with that  Grin
sr. member
Activity: 434
Merit: 251
September 10, 2012, 02:16:52 AM
#18
Multi-variant empirical Bayesian recursion. Model risk parameters chosen through a simulated annealing process.

I am still waiting for the day you share anything more substantial than that Smiley

Bayesian recursion is something that is understood, I'm not inventing anything here. I am using empirical Bayes because I am not smart enough to choose a prior that works better than an empirical curve. The eight variants that I am using now come from a constant volume series. That is, I first redimension the time series into candles of similar volume. That bit is not hard, although, sometimes when I make a change to the model I have a hard time figuring out how to get the posterior to converge. The hard part is figuring out where to set risk parameters, that is the maximum amount of available liquidity to place in any given order. Too little and profits are lost from not enough trade volume, too much and the risk is liquidity. Balancing skewness and kurtosis risk is tricky and the search space for the model is large. It is probably either an NP-complete or NP-hard problem actually. The best way I have discovered so far to find solutions that meet my fitness criteria, within my computing budget, is a form of simulated annealing. This is also something that is understood, I am not inventing anything.

Thanks, I don't quite understand what you are talking about but that may be the point Wink

Can you say for your model to be back-tested in a rigorous way based upon available past data or is there still some part of it prone to subjectivity?

Specifically, I back test over the last 400 constant volume candles, right now that means that each candle is for price activity over a span of about 14k BTC of volume. The data used for backtesting goes back about 100 days, I don't actually find it useful to go back any farther.


As someone who build models for a living (system biology), I like what you're talking about.
Still, my question is : Does it work ?
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
September 10, 2012, 01:38:42 AM
#17
I base my speculation almost completely on my own theory of the value of such a solution (I think.)

Associated factors include

 - the likelihood of failure or supplantation of the solution.
 - the possible reactions (namely corp/gov) to the solution.
 - the potential trajectories of Bitcoin which could provoke failure or success.
 - the potential trajectories of fiat currency solutions which could provoke failure or success.

Like most of my speculative adventures, I'm not anticipating success for years (if at all) so I don't pay much attention to the routine things which pop up (e.g., thefts, scams, tv shows, etc.)  At least not for the purpose of modulating the magnitude of my speculative investment.  Some of them do lend (or reduce) strength the the various hypothesis I hold about factors effecting the chances of a particular outcome.  And a lot of these routine things are fairly amusing.

---

A completely unrelated factor in my interest in Bitcoin is political.  It is a good way to actively demonstrate my rejection of the USD, for instance.

legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1001
September 10, 2012, 01:17:51 AM
#16
I base mine on gut feeling about bitcoin news and scandals.

This has been unsuccessful for me.
I only trade with pretty small amounts, and I made about 2 bitcoins last month doing the occasional day trade - but it wasn't worth the time and stress.


Now I'm holding some USD when I'd prefer to be all BTC.  If the price doesn't drop soon then I guess I'll buy back in at a loss and wipe out my previous little BTC gains plus some. :/


Basically - I suck at day trading, but every now and then I forget that and get sucked in to giving it another whirl.
hero member
Activity: 575
Merit: 500
The North Remembers
September 09, 2012, 09:25:59 PM
#15
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
September 09, 2012, 09:24:11 PM
#14
Multi-variant empirical Bayesian recursion. Model risk parameters chosen through a simulated annealing process.

I am still waiting for the day you share anything more substantial than that Smiley

Bayesian recursion is something that is understood, I'm not inventing anything here. I am using empirical Bayes because I am not smart enough to choose a prior that works better than an empirical curve. The eight variants that I am using now come from a constant volume series. That is, I first redimension the time series into candles of similar volume. That bit is not hard, although, sometimes when I make a change to the model I have a hard time figuring out how to get the posterior to converge. The hard part is figuring out where to set risk parameters, that is the maximum amount of available liquidity to place in any given order. Too little and profits are lost from not enough trade volume, too much and the risk is liquidity. Balancing skewness and kurtosis risk is tricky and the search space for the model is large. It is probably either an NP-complete or NP-hard problem actually. The best way I have discovered so far to find solutions that meet my fitness criteria, within my computing budget, is a form of simulated annealing. This is also something that is understood, I am not inventing anything.

Thanks, I don't quite understand what you are talking about but that may be the point Wink
Have you tried modeling it after a gamma distribution?

Can you say for your model to be back-tested in a rigorous way based upon available past data or is there still some part of it prone to subjectivity?
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1038
Trusted Bitcoiner
September 09, 2012, 09:04:44 PM
#13
i take in all the  News, current scandals, BS Maths and statistics some poeple post here. and formulate a hunch!

oh and my hunch is that 10$ is the new 5

my fear is the 15 is the new 32  Tongue

My fears are slowly going away

They can both be true...

after a few million coins have changed hands at around 10$ i think its safe to assume 10 is the new 5

so far so good.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
September 09, 2012, 08:55:21 PM
#12
Multi-variant empirical Bayesian recursion. Model risk parameters chosen through a simulated annealing process.

I am still waiting for the day you share anything more substantial than that Smiley
hero member
Activity: 931
Merit: 500
September 09, 2012, 08:01:56 PM
#11
Humans...

11.11 is the new 6.66

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