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So in my opinion lump sum is not the best strategy for this reason to me, mind you I do use lump sum, when I'm buying on dips, but I don't allocate much to it and my basic strategy is DCA which I consider the best for accumulation, if you think otherwise or have anything to point out to me I'm very much ears to listen 😎🥰.
You make a fair point - lump sum investing can work well if you happen to buy at a low point, but dollar cost averaging tends to work better over the long run by smoothing out volatility. There's merits to both approaches and it comes down to personal preference and risk tolerance.
But I can see your example of buying Bitcoin at its peak price as cherry-picking. That was a single data point that ignored Bitcoin's potential for future growth, and that is not the best way to make analysis or draw conclusions. If we take that approach, does that mean every other asset is also in the same boat as Bitcoin? For example, what about gold? If you had bought gold at its peak at the end of 2011, it took more than eight years to recover its value. Eight freaking years! Do you think Bitcoin will ever take that long for a new ATH?
In the end, reasonable people can disagree on investment strategies. As you rightly pointed out combining lump sum purchases with dollar cost averaging can make sense for some investors. Theres no universally best approach - it depends on one's specific goals and appetite for risk.
I'm really sorry about that I know I spoke less in favour of lump sum, I use it strategically when I want to buy on dips and I didn't want to make such points least people start relying on only dip buys as an accumulation strategy knowing that it often leads to procrastination and indecision amongst younger investors.
For me personally, if I had a large amount of fiat to buy bitcoin with, I'd just do it all in one shot instead of DCA'ing--but that's just because I think the price is headed much higher. But I don't, and I'm not even doing DCA so it's a moot point. However, I think for those folks who also don't have enough to buy a big stash of BTC, DCA is probably a smart strategy. I'm not sure if Michael Saylor has been doing that, but he certainly hasn't made one single purchase, and his company has the cash to buy plenty.
I think any kind of buying strategy in the crypto market takes a lot of discipline and steady nerves. The volatility alone can make anyone doubt what they're doing if they've got any reservations whatsoever about bitcoin or whatever altcoin they're buying. It can be a hellish ride at times, ya know?
Your very right about the discipline part, I think at which 3ver point you buy, what matters most is if you can hold till bitcoin starts doing well, and many new investors have not quite developed such mindset and would be more motivated when the overall losses on their is not quite much and DCA helps a lot to balance things out, cause you would be buying every trend, and if the price is bullish or bear you won't even care much since your just buying all the time, so I think newbies should approach with DCA than others.
And lump sum can also be used by new investors if they have the capability to handle the high risk that comes with investing with bitcoin due to volatility, especially when you don't plan to hold for long. But for long term holders, i think It doesn't matter much which strategy your using, but I think beign strategic is good to, who doesn't like having a good result from what their doing, especially investing.