What do you think of my oscillator? | Bitcointalksearch.org

smickles

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Quote from: smickles on December 24, 2011, 12:57:45 PM

ok, so I've changed to using high-low averages -instead of closing price- for the oscillator. It looks more accurate now, although almost indistinguishable at first glance.

using these new numbers and the fact that it is a percentage based oscillator, I've come up with the target %50 retracement of 0.1679. and this assumes that we are in part B of the correction wave from the peak back in June.

this target price will, of course, move as the 2 ~~week~~ month moving average influences the formula which you can derive a price target from this number. However, using the current moving average the 'minimum' target price is 3.6138.

As this number is below the current price, I think that it means the 'true' target price (that is the one based on the future moving average that we just don't know the value of yet) is highly influenced by the moving average.

just 'eyeballing it', it's clear that the 2 ~~week~~month sma's slope is not yet even positive. if this sma doesn't start to rise soon then we'd be in danger of reaching the peak of part B without a significantly higher price than what we currently have. Shocked

EDIT: meant month instead of week Wink

Also, 'just eyeballing it' was a mistake, the 2 month sma's slope is positive.

smickles

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Activity: 446

Merit: 250

ok, so I've changed to using high-low averages -instead of closing price- for the oscillator. It looks more accurate now, although almost indistinguishable at first glance.

using these new numbers and the fact that it is a percentage based oscillator, I've come up with the target %50 retracement of 0.1679. and this assumes that we are in part B of the correction wave from the peak back in June.

this target price will, of course, move as the 2 ~~week~~ month moving average influences the formula which you can derive a price target from this number. However, using the current moving average the 'minimum' target price is 3.6138.

As this number is below the current price, I think that it means the 'true' target price (that is the one based on the future moving average that we just don't know the value of yet) is highly influenced by the moving average.

just 'eyeballing it', it's clear that the 2 ~~week~~month sma's slope is not yet even positive. if this sma doesn't start to rise soon then we'd be in danger of reaching the peak of part B without a significantly higher price than what we currently have. Shocked

EDIT: meant month instead of week Wink

cbeast

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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Quote from: RandyFolds on December 24, 2011, 03:04:39 AM

Red and green are always poor choices, despite their symbolism in the financial world. It does make it hard to pick other colors. A large percentage of the male population is red/green colorblind. It's one of those things to watch out for when you are presenting things...kind of like yellow text on a white background.

TL;DR - I'm jealous cause I'm colorblind.

There is something poetic about Bitcoin being the red/green currency that so many people don't see because they are blinded by disinformation.

smickles

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Activity: 446

Merit: 250

Quote from: RandyFolds on December 24, 2011, 03:04:39 AM

Red and green are always poor choices, despite their symbolism in the financial world. It does make it hard to pick other colors. A large percentage of the male population is red/green colorblind. It's one of those things to watch out for when you are presenting things...kind of like yellow text on a white background.

TL;DR - I'm jealous cause I'm colorblind.

Although I prefer red and green for the bars (for the 'green means go', 'stop on red' that has been drilled into my mind), the color on the bars doesn't really matter, it's their height that's important. So it's really no good to use those colors if it makes it difficult for a significant portion of the community to participate in the conversation.

If we can come to some kind of consensus about a standard color pallet, I'm willing to use it on all my charts (assuming I post any more, of course Wink

).

Sannyasi

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Quote from: RandyFolds on December 24, 2011, 03:04:39 AM

Red and green are always poor choices, despite their symbolism in the financial world. It does make it hard to pick other colors. A large percentage of the male population is red/green colorblind. It's one of those things to watch out for when you are presenting things...kind of like yellow text on a white background.

TL;DR - I'm jealous cause I'm colorblind.

I'd be happy to photoshop it into any alternative colors of your choice or greyscale

I'm about to get some sleep though, so it won't be immediate.

EDIT: I decided to do a quick greyscale conversion before i got to bed

- the darker colors are red and the lighter are green, the squiggly lines are also green. hope this helps Cheesy

i'd be happy to help with similar images that might be tough to see correctly if you pm me a link to the pic

RandyFolds

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Activity: 448

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Red and green are always poor choices, despite their symbolism in the financial world. It does make it hard to pick other colors. A large percentage of the male population is red/green colorblind. It's one of those things to watch out for when you are presenting things...kind of like yellow text on a white background.

TL;DR - I'm jealous cause I'm colorblind.

smickles

sr. member

Activity: 446

Merit: 250

Quote from: RandyFolds on December 23, 2011, 10:16:24 PM

Why does every friggin' TA graph have to be red and green. I can't see shit.

what do you want it to be, I think I can change it

RandyFolds

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Why does every friggin' TA graph have to be red and green. I can't see shit.

smickles

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Merit: 250

Quote from: ineededausername on December 23, 2011, 03:49:24 PM

If this indicator is right, this rally is far from over, and by the time it ends, we'll have at least two digits. It just crossed 0, and will probably take a while to reach the maximum height of the last three "hills."

Also, i'd like to point out that if this is actually indicating that we are in the B wave of the correction from the peak, we would expect this crossover to positive on the oscillator to last only a short time -2 to 4 weeks- and then continue down below 2 $/btc.

NothinG

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I don't oscillat you mean there, but it looks like Christmas.

smickles

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Quote from: ineededausername on December 23, 2011, 03:49:24 PM

If this indicator is right, this rally is far from over, and by the time it ends, we'll have at least two digits. It just crossed 0, and will probably take a while to reach the maximum height of the last three "hills."

As I read it, I think it indicates a target price of 6.19 as the high of wave 3. Beyond that (wave 4 and 5) I have so little clue I won't even venture such a 'wild' guess as I have with 6.19. But, again, i'm new at this.

ineededausername

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bitcoin hundred-aire

If this indicator is right, this rally is far from over, and by the time it ends, we'll have at least two digits. It just crossed 0, and will probably take a while to reach the maximum height of the last three "hills."

smickles

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Activity: 446

Merit: 250

Quote from: zby on December 23, 2011, 12:26:57 PM

Hmm - maybe you could write a formula in mathematical notation or something?

On a weekly chart, this is my first draft:

The oscillator: (SMA4 - SMA8) / SMA8
the breakout bands: average of the past 8 highest highs (or lowest lows, for the lower band) over the past 8 periods only counting the positive (or negative, for the lower band) numbers
pullback lines: 0.1 * highest high (or lowest low, for the lower line) over the past 8 periods only counting the positive (or negative, for the lower line) numbers

zby

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Quote from: smickles on December 23, 2011, 09:54:32 AM

Quote from: zby on December 23, 2011, 09:40:24 AM

How does that work and why is it called oscillator?

I'm using 'oscillator' in the sense that it produces a signal that alternates above and below a center line.

The way it works:
the main thing to look at are the bars. You can think of the bars as forming mountains, a set above zero and a set below zero. from a positive peak to a negative peak (or positive valley for weaker movements) indicates a wave down. they are colored green for a positive slope, red for a neg. slope to help identify peaks and valleys.

the breakout bands (dark green) help identify strong movements.

the pullback lines are like how far 'down' the next valley should be from the peak to indicate a coming strong movement.

Did I answer your question well?

Hmm - maybe you could write a formula in mathematical notation or something?

smickles

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Activity: 446

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Quote from: zby on December 23, 2011, 09:40:24 AM

How does that work and why is it called oscillator?

I'm using 'oscillator' in the sense that it produces a signal that alternates above and below a center line.

The way it works:
the main thing to look at are the bars. You can think of the bars as forming mountains, a set above zero and a set below zero. from a positive peak to a negative peak (or positive valley for weaker movements) indicates a wave down. they are colored green for a positive slope, red for a neg. slope to help identify peaks and valleys.

the breakout bands (dark green) help identify strong movements.

the pullback lines are like how far 'down' the next valley should be from the peak to indicate a coming strong movement.

Did I answer your question well?

zby

legendary

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How does that work and why is it called oscillator?

smickles

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Merit: 250

Quote from: notme on December 23, 2011, 08:44:39 AM

I just don't understand how it is useful. Then again, I don't really get Elliot waves either.

Well, I was hoping to get someone who believes they know a thing or two about Elliot waves.
But from what I understand, the chart I posted basically show that the market is somewhere near the middle of the correction from the peak, or at the (beginning of the) middle part of a powerful upswing after the correction from the peak.

The oscillator is supposed to assist in identifying the beginning and end of the waves.

cbeast

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Quote from: notme on December 23, 2011, 08:44:39 AM

I just don't understand how it is useful. Then again, I don't really get Elliot waves either.

Ditto. If it had a white background it would look more Christmassy.

notme

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I just don't understand how it is useful. Then again, I don't really get Elliot waves either.

smickles

sr. member

Activity: 446

Merit: 250

aw, no one? Did I really get it wrong or something?

Topic: What do you think of my oscillator? (Read 2661 times)