Topic: What do you think the Bitcoin price will do when the Feds sell the Silk Road BTC - page 2. (Read 2637 times)
January 17, 2014, 03:10:18 AM
Personally, I wouldn't want to buy the coins; I'd buy the private key(s). Then I'd hodl. And if I were a manipulator I'd keep that dump in reserve until I thought it best to use it on an unsuspecting market.
January 17, 2014, 02:38:58 AM
Elwar's post is interesting because he's got a good point: we all get to watch the coins move out of this address in almost real time.
I think it is generally accepted by those who carefully follow bitcoin that the coins will get sold at auction and will never touch Gox or BitStamp. BUT, we also know that a bunch of people still think it's possible that "they dump the coins." SO, perhaps this will be a perfectly opportunity to cause a panic.
One possibility:
The coins get moved. Someone who's monitoring this address in real-time notices. It gets posted on BitcoinTalk and on Reddit where it's up-voted like mad because the blockchain contains definitive proof. Some people sell thinking that other people will sell. The price drops and some people who thought the coins were going to be sold at auction start thinking that maybe the price is dropping because the coins are being "dumped" on the market. This causes them to sell before all the bids are eaten. Manipulators are ready--thinking in advance that this may happen--and once they see their opportunity, they dump enough coins to push us over the edge. Next thing we know it's turned into a full-fledge panic although not a single Silk Road coin ever touched the market.
So, yes, perhaps the price will spike lower and then quickly recover. The fact that we can all see that the bitcoins moved adds a puzzling dynamic!
I think it is generally accepted by those who carefully follow bitcoin that the coins will get sold at auction and will never touch Gox or BitStamp. BUT, we also know that a bunch of people still think it's possible that "they dump the coins." SO, perhaps this will be a perfectly opportunity to cause a panic.
One possibility:
The coins get moved. Someone who's monitoring this address in real-time notices. It gets posted on BitcoinTalk and on Reddit where it's up-voted like mad because the blockchain contains definitive proof. Some people sell thinking that other people will sell. The price drops and some people who thought the coins were going to be sold at auction start thinking that maybe the price is dropping because the coins are being "dumped" on the market. This causes them to sell before all the bids are eaten. Manipulators are ready--thinking in advance that this may happen--and once they see their opportunity, they dump enough coins to push us over the edge. Next thing we know it's turned into a full-fledge panic although not a single Silk Road coin ever touched the market.
So, yes, perhaps the price will spike lower and then quickly recover. The fact that we can all see that the bitcoins moved adds a puzzling dynamic!
January 17, 2014, 02:36:42 AM
How will the auction work? Can you only bid for the whole thing, or will every single BTC be sold separately?
Who can bid?
Who can bid?
January 17, 2014, 02:29:09 AM
FEDs are not allowed without public auctioning so that tells you what will happen - pretty much nothing.
January 17, 2014, 01:52:34 AM
The FBI will never sell on bitstamp or gox. Standard procedure is auctioning.
Plus it doesn't make one bit of a difference. It will just move from one wallet(DPR's) to another wallet, that is, just replacing one owner for another, so why would it affect price? Of course if people panic then yes, it would affect price.
IF someone buy and dumps, they will instantly lose money. So that makes no sense at all.
Plus it doesn't make one bit of a difference. It will just move from one wallet(DPR's) to another wallet, that is, just replacing one owner for another, so why would it affect price? Of course if people panic then yes, it would affect price.
IF someone buy and dumps, they will instantly lose money. So that makes no sense at all.
January 17, 2014, 01:47:42 AM
It is evident the coins are going for Auction.
The mean btc auctioned price will be taken into consideration by the market, and price on exchanges will adjust itself.
My guess: auction price will be lower than current price and the market makers might anticipate this prior to the auction.
The mean btc auctioned price will be taken into consideration by the market, and price on exchanges will adjust itself.
My guess: auction price will be lower than current price and the market makers might anticipate this prior to the auction.
January 17, 2014, 01:40:44 AM
The FBI has been given the go ahead to sell the Silk Road bitcoins.
http://www.justice.gov/usao/nys/pressreleases/January14/SilkRoadForfeiture.php
The moment the bitcoins move out of the FBI address, what do you believe will happen to the bitcoin price?
As I recall, when the FBI busted DPR for Silk Road the price dropped from $120s to $80s then climbed back up and weeks later we started the rally to the new high.
I could see something like that happening again. The price will drop because of all of the new coins needing to be traded somehow for dollars. But I know that many people have probably not gone all in because they knew that would happen so many people will buy up bitcoins.
And afterwards, we will not have that sale hanging over our heads so a new rally may begin.
Thoughts?
Selling that much on bitstamp would take it down to single digits, on MtGox down in the $400s. Hopefully they are smart about it but when have we known the US government to be smart?
http://www.justice.gov/usao/nys/pressreleases/January14/SilkRoadForfeiture.php
The moment the bitcoins move out of the FBI address, what do you believe will happen to the bitcoin price?
As I recall, when the FBI busted DPR for Silk Road the price dropped from $120s to $80s then climbed back up and weeks later we started the rally to the new high.
I could see something like that happening again. The price will drop because of all of the new coins needing to be traded somehow for dollars. But I know that many people have probably not gone all in because they knew that would happen so many people will buy up bitcoins.
And afterwards, we will not have that sale hanging over our heads so a new rally may begin.
Thoughts?
Selling that much on bitstamp would take it down to single digits, on MtGox down in the $400s. Hopefully they are smart about it but when have we known the US government to be smart?
If they dump 30K coins at once we will see $500 again, as speculators will also sell along with the fed dump. If they dump the entire stash almost 170k btc then we might see much lower lvls as current liquidity is not enough to buy them up and markets will super panic
They will Most likely sell on coinbase or as an auction.
January 17, 2014, 01:25:24 AM
The FBI has been given the go ahead to sell the Silk Road bitcoins.
http://www.justice.gov/usao/nys/pressreleases/January14/SilkRoadForfeiture.php
The moment the bitcoins move out of the FBI address, what do you believe will happen to the bitcoin price?
As I recall, when the FBI busted DPR for Silk Road the price dropped from $120s to $80s then climbed back up and weeks later we started the rally to the new high.
I could see something like that happening again. The price will drop because of all of the new coins needing to be traded somehow for dollars. But I know that many people have probably not gone all in because they knew that would happen so many people will buy up bitcoins.
And afterwards, we will not have that sale hanging over our heads so a new rally may begin.
Thoughts?
Selling that much on bitstamp would take it down to single digits, on MtGox down in the $400s. Hopefully they are smart about it but when have we known the US government to be smart?
http://www.justice.gov/usao/nys/pressreleases/January14/SilkRoadForfeiture.php
The moment the bitcoins move out of the FBI address, what do you believe will happen to the bitcoin price?
As I recall, when the FBI busted DPR for Silk Road the price dropped from $120s to $80s then climbed back up and weeks later we started the rally to the new high.
I could see something like that happening again. The price will drop because of all of the new coins needing to be traded somehow for dollars. But I know that many people have probably not gone all in because they knew that would happen so many people will buy up bitcoins.
And afterwards, we will not have that sale hanging over our heads so a new rally may begin.
Thoughts?
Selling that much on bitstamp would take it down to single digits, on MtGox down in the $400s. Hopefully they are smart about it but when have we known the US government to be smart?
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