Topic: What do you think the effects of soaring prices and fiat depreciation is on BTC? (Read 437 times)

I have no idea what you're talking about.
I'm one of the guys who is actively criticizing Russia for ignoring the laws with the invasion of Ukraine, how can you say I'm supporting such a violation when I'm against it and expressed so it even on this topic? I don't think there is a single person in his right mind here who is supporting this!
It's probably because we're discussing relatable issues on two topics and you or I have maybe misquoted each other somewhere!

In other words you are admitting to supporting an act of terror and violation of international human rights law and the violation of Article 2(4) of the UN Charter.
That shed some light on your comments so far.

Had a serious laugh on this one!!!



Soleimani, is that you? Oh yeah, you can't be, fortunately for eveyone.
Half a billion dollars for two spies? Seriously???
Again with those numbers when you claimed an Iranian rocket destroyed more property than what the entire damn Burj Khalifa costs?
When I read stuff like this I wonder why do you even try and disguise it as a normal economical discussion.


It was over 100$ from 2011 to 2015, it was over 130$ in 2008, Europe is still here as you can see, and still being able to produce stuff. Like those 25 billions of planes, Iran has bought from us since they run out of ducks?  
I love how when it comes to some facts you want to show off you go for long terms but when that doesn't work here you simply share the smallest timeline to fit your story. Europe is more used to oil in the 60-80 than to oil at 30, and btw prices below 40$ for Brent happened only for 4 months in 15 years.


Of course, the thing is irrelevant because it doesn't fit what you want to paint.
Bottom line is that despite the investors putting their every penny in BTC we are still just 2x from the previous ATH from 2017, so that might raise a few questions.
Second, you're forgetting something, why is it going down from November when there is an incentive to grow even further? Why has it lost 40% since then?


Theory? What theory?
I was telling you the prices are lower now than then!
How can prices be lower when you think people are putting more money into crypto?
What I did is an observation of a real fact, it's your turn to come up with a theory for it on how prices for something can go down when there is more demand and less offer.

The main topic is effects of "soaring prices and fiat depreciation is on bitcoin price". The part about $200 per oil barrel is mentioning some possibilities that are discussed among analysts. I didn't think a detail would mislead some readers to focus on that part and ignore the topic.

A lot of interesting things actually. But only if you are not zoomed in one short term volatility.
[I'm not an oil market analyst so these are just my thoughts.]
The recent events proved once again that there is a concerning level of oil (gas, etc) shortage in the world otherwise those who kept threatening Russian sanctions would have moved ahead and actually sanctioned Russia's energy exports.
The global spare oil production capacity has also been shrinking that is going to continue being a contributor to increasing oil prices.

Regardless of the recent short term volatility the oil price has been rising for a long time. It was about $20 mid 2020 and kept on rising in the past 2 years and it was about $90 before Russian invasion even began (reminder: long term). Interestingly this 350% rise is something that some people don't want to see.

The recent short term volatility is not so different from what we see (maybe in an exaggerated way) in bitcoin. The emotional market behavior doesn't define the overall trend.
For example the jump was the emotional response to a couple of events one of which was Russian invasion and the media's super coverage. Similarly the panic sell is the emotional response to a couple of events including the Russian negotiation and the news about UK buying 2 of their spies from Iran for half a billion dollar that signals possibility of Iran's oil coming back to European markets.

I respect your opinion but as I explained my observation of inflations is different. I have always seen enough number of people investing their fiat into certain assets that actually increases their price.

LONG TERM price from February 2021 to April went up and reached a new ATH. The 16% drop in last week of February is irrelevant since risen costs of everything didn't go back to normal after that week whereas bitcoin price kept rising for about 3 months.
The fact that your theory doesn't work for the February case, you can't use it for November either even though price hasn't gone back up yet.

This was what I was thinking when we first reached 64k and then dropped during the summer period, but then in October it reached 68k again. So, we already had a 50% drop and then another 2x or more in a single year. Which made me question if we are in the bear market cycle of the market right now or could that change constantly?

I am not saying that it will change, I mean it could surely change and go to 60k+ too, but could stay here for another year as well and wait for the next halving. Hopefully we would be more like 2021 where we would go up without waiting for the halving, that would be a lot better to be involved instead of waiting for the next halving.

Bitcoin might not surge like it did during 2020 and 2021 because the bear cycle might be starting. But ZOOM OUT, it might actually give us plebs another golden opportunity to buy near the 200-weekly SMA, which Bitcoin has been crashing through during bear cycles. That's the only DIP I like.

Even if somehow it hits 200 bucks, which I believe it will not and it is already dropping under 100 very fast (104 last I checked) from all the way at 120+, I still think that it will be recovered before the war ends.

I mean USA already found another supplier, and west will find it as well, and china won't be able to buy all oils from Russia, all of these will end up with a better result in the short term as well as long term as well. This is why I believe that we are in a situation where things are looking better. I mean it is not as good as we want, but it is definitely not going to stand like this for too long.

The topic was about the imaginary $200 for the barrel of oil that will bankrupt Europe, in case you've forgotten your first phrase of the starting topic.
And I've already shown you the two scenarios that in theory cold boost the price there as well as why they will fail, a thing that you miraculously again avoided, since it doesn't fit your we're all doom and Iran is a global superpower scenario!

Btw, what happened to the oil price lately?


You're underestimating the poverty levels in the world always and you forget that bitcoin as much as you hate it is a commodity that is basically traded in dollars.
For a guy that lives with 30000 rubles and managed to put aide 8 000 inflation at 20% will munch 5000 of them and the exchange rate will further drop his investments from $130 to $20. Now, do this for somebody who only managed to put 5% aside, they will not be able to invest, they will have to sell to survive.
With everything that is basic for living everywhere in the world the amount of money people afford to invest is going down the drain while the amount of money they have to pull from under the sofa is growing. Common, use logic!


Do I honestly have to put a printscreen for the bitcoin price chart since the first jump in inflation in the US in Europe?
The first jump happened in February 2021 and the second in November...how did the price fare from February 2021?
Where is that buying power-driven by millions seeking refuge from inflation?

My opinion in this is it won't affect much on Bitcoin but if we talk about it in the global market, there we can see shooting prices in all goods and most particularly in oil prices. I see it going worse if the war continues and more people suffer the impact of the conflicts.

But on the crypto side, Bitcoin prices remain calm and growing. Even the war still going on and there is fiat money devaluation, crypto investors will find their way to invest. We don't have to worry about the situation, this can actually be resolved so I believe that investing in Bitcoin is still safe.

We all know that environmental issues affects economy and the same is applicable to the Bitcoin, so from my observation and the looks of bitcoin fluctuations this period, it's seems that Bitcoin regulations starting early this year is showing categorically that Bitcoin is in Flux, saying a particular stages of bitcoin increment and Bitcoin acceleration will get to a specific point in price is just like assumptions, because since 2022 Bitcoin has not done well in price like last year regulations or increase in price, so I'm expecting Bitcoin to get nice increase by next year

The Russians boast that they sell quite enough gas and oil despite the sanctions, and how could it not be when the whole EU depends on their gas, and China, with which they do business normally, can easily buy everything that others do not want.


Sanctions have no effect in the short term, and some analysts say it would take years for Russia to feel them in the right way. Russians are finding holes everywhere, so despite the ban on passenger planes, they continue to fly across the EU using the so-called "Serbian backdoor", which has not imposed sanctions on Russia. What does the EU say about the behavior of a country negotiating EU accession? Nothing, they pretend not to be aware of how someone is undermining their sanctions, if they can be called sanctions at all.

If by West you mean US then Russia wasn't really exporting that much oil to US in first place for this sanction to have a big effect. The rest of the "West" haven't sanctioned Russian oil as far as I know and they are still buying it.
In fact almost all sanctions against Russia have been silly so far like banning Russian cats and stuff like that.

The current oil shortage is artificially created by the western sanctions imposed over Russian.
There might be a short term oil shortage in the western world(despite the fact that the western countries have some oil reserves).This will pump the oil prices in the western world.On the other hand,Russian oil price are dropping,because Russia cannot sell it's oil to the west and China cannot fully replace the western oil buyers.The war will end some day and Russia has to sell the oil to the west.
Long story short,I don't expect the oil prices to hit 200 USD.
All the "Bitcoin price will go up,because money printers go brrr..." mantras sound really compelling,but this simply isn't happening in the recent weeks.Perhaps the BTC traders are too scared of the war in Ukraine and all that BS about World War 3/nuclear war and a new great depression.The fear will continue to dominate the BTC market,so no fiat money printers can pump the BTC price right now.

The point I keep saying from before. Think even in 2020 when economists were predicting a recession to rival or even outstrip the Great Depression, leading to all the talk about Bitcoin rising like a phoenix, I couldn't see it. Yes, it "rose" from the ashes of the great banking collapse a decade ago, but when bills go up and food becomes dearer, people are going to be selling their gold, Bitcoin, dig into their savings, cut down on DCA. Hungry mouths are loud. The first victims are regular Joes and their modest BTC holdings.

Now after the war involvement of Russia against Ukraine had influence the oil price more.When the oil price boost up, surely in turn increase the price for the transport.Transport price which further include the variation in the commodity price.The commodities like fruits, vegetables and food grains.


Now the price of bitcoin and other altcoin was not volatile.So this is best time to inverse your money for the long term for good benefits. The price of bitcoin gonna increase double of current value after the Inflation dramas.

All of those things (transport, groceries, rent, oil, etc etc) caused the fiat to be less valuable and that is correct. However since it became less valuable, people needed more of it to pay for their stuff. This resulted with nothing great for us, not bad but not great neither.

The main reason is that the amount of people who bought bitcoins to store their value ended up being a little bit equal to the people who needed to cash out so they can pay for stuff. This is not exactly 1 to 1 ratio but at the same time the difference is not staggering which is why I believe that there wasn't really that much of a difference between the two that caused the price to go big in any direction.

I would agree with this thinking that people have an understanding of what Bitcoin really is and how it can help them become more financially independent, but I don't think there is a global awareness of that at the moment. If we take into account that according to some estimates there are at least 100 million people in the world who invest in cryptocurrencies (meaning not exclusively in Bitcoin), and even if we double that number to 200 million - globally very few people are willing to invest in Bitcoin.

In times of inflation and wars, people have been very careful with their money so far, I wonder if it is the same now or they will start to think differently.


The beginning of the year was not promising in that regard, but it seems to me that we should not expect any spectacular things in terms of price in the current conditions. I think it's good that the price stays stable in the range of $35k to $45k, and that upper limit so far shows very high resilience. It is difficult to say what will happen with the war and how drastic the inflation will be, and the price of Bitcoin will depend a lot on it.

Where did you get that from?!
I don't even see the world as East/West even though I use those terms because that's the language people understand.

In a way this is also my conclusion. By all logic and history I expected bigger rises or at least the beginning of them in March but when I look at the market sentiment, the manipulation and the ups and downs of past 4 months I can only expect more sideways while market participants remain undecided.
What I'm intently watching is the events I mentioned in OP and their effects on bitcoin price.

There is no denying that, my point is that investors have a "basket" that contains multiple assets. In the past years bitcoin has been part of that basket, specially since bitcoin market has never followed any other markets.

To be honest, currently investors are still hedging to safer investment assets such as Gold and Silver because of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and that has also made world oil prices rise drastically.

I think that currently investors are not very interested in bitcoin because the volatility is quite high and the Fed will increase interest rates, because it makes Bitcoin's purchasing power decrease and it also makes investors more careful to put their money into certain assets.

I can't expect much for the price of bitcoin in 2022 because a lot of drama is not over yet.

for the issue of fluctuations and fears in the energy market may have an impact on this case, because oil is a much needed energy source for now, when this happens and gets worse, maybe there crypto in general will be affected more, but this will take time, and I think in the future if this case of tension escalates and crypto is not affected more, then the achievement of new ATH specifically for bitcoin will be even more likely