Topic: What do you think will happen to the price when all the bitcoins are mined? (Read 758 times)

Ok wow Thailand is my neighbor but I had no idea it was that cheap there. In my other neighbor Malaysia, for 2 TB of a standard cheap brand on offer you pay RM300 (everybody here checks on Lazada at minimum quality if you buy from other cheap sites you will get ripped off with Alibaba fakes, this is the other problem of Asia, you have 50 online shops and maybe 40 of them are fakes and we do not have online purchase protection like a normal country should have lol) where RM 800 is the minimum wage (it is as high as 1200 in one or two states) and nobody who earns minimum wage ever has any savings.

I am actually shocked minimum wage in Thailand is 50% more than Malaysia (or exactly same if living in most expensive state), but I am 100% sure like Malaysia, most workers are not earning minimum wage as employers don't go to jail or even get fined for hiring illegally. I should know this very well as I spent many many years before this being hired illegally for pay way below the legal minimum We all do it here, facts of life.

Thanks for your comments I learn a little bit (also hopefully understand a little bit).

i would have thought (joking here) that asia would be ahead of the game. especially since the hard drives people in the west buy.. come from asia

im just going to use thailand as an example
if we assume a 4mb block full utility for full transaction access.. well thats 1.26TB for the next 6 years( call it 1.6tb for all 18 years back to genesis. you can get a 2tb for 1800b in thailand. which is about 6 days min wage, which should see you good until 2028
(most people update their PC every 4-6 years anyway)

even super fast unlimited internet is only like 2 days(10% of min wage monthly income) which is about standard cost around the world

..
as for pruning.. um.. no. it doesnt have the HASH ID to then interrogate other peers to ensure data integrity of UTXOset nor does it then allow other nodes to then initial block download from you. so by pruning you become an insecure 'leecher' not offering all the decentralised protocol backbone services a full node suppose to offer.

there are many idea's in the pipeline where instead of a endless blockchain from genesis. .. insteat of curent insecure and less network serving pruning.. there is idea's of a hybrid. a best of both worlds 'ball and chain' idea floating around.

imagine in the future where by nodes had code to 'milestone' the utxo set as of block 840,000(2024 halving) and ball up all the unspents as seen from the view of block 840,000. (im estimating about 5gb 'ball' of data) and give it a hash. and then mine that hash for X year(include it in block data). then at a later date when its deemed as a true 'milestone'  EG 945,000(a year later) and 105,000 blocks deep. to secure the utxo hash into record
prune off the chain from below 840,000.  thus there is then a 'ball' (5gb) and chain(upto 210gb) instead of the endless 'from genesis chain' people cry about.
this 'ball' would be under 5gb unspents. instead of the estimated 520gb spent and unspent chain by 2028
but by having a hash and a strong hash at that. it becomes not so easy/cheap for people to manipulate history(having to re-mine 105000 blocks just to edit the utxo hash out). and so a more secure version of pruning while also having a smaller initial (ball)block download to keep and distribute to others
then they start working on the next 'ball' from the next year, with a 1 year including of hash in blocks before pruning off.
thus 2029 (block 945k) has a milestone ball of block 0-840k of 5gb + 210gb of chain of 840,001-945k
thus 2030 (block 1050k) has a milestone ball of block 0-945k 6gb+ 210gb of chain of 945,001-1050k
meaning nodes only store or IBD upto ~216gb securely where the UTXO set can be trusted and authenticated by peers

Many believe bitcoin is the stepping off point for people to get into using cryptocurrencies.
There are some which have zero transaction fees to send their coins such as nano and others take less time to send over their blockchain this being litecoin.
But bitcoin will always be the grandfather if you will of all cryptocurrenies. There is no denying this fact. It was the first and only to start using the blockchain back 13 years ago.
As for the question of what will happen to the price once all bitcoins have been mined?
Nothing.
Michael Saylor even started discussing how bitcoin could go proof of stake just as ethereum will do later this year.
So that will minimize the cost of doing transactions and sending times over the blockchain will decrease as well.

We can’t really tell how it is going to be when the time comes and there are no more bitcoins to be mined. But you all know for sure that the value of bitcoin will keep on increasing, and the level of demand will surely surpass that of supply. As this level of demand surpasses supply, it will lead to heavy increase in the price of bitcoin, which would even make a fraction of bitcoin to be worth more than it is today.

And we all know as well that it is possible for the number of bitcoins in the market to be increased, maybe when we get to that stage, the community  or the developers might then decide  on whether they are to break bitcoin down into more fractional parts, or to increase the number of coins that can be mined and correct the price to match.

Maybe after bitcoin all have mined price pump because have not any demand from miner where selling bitcoin fund, I think the miner is not holder they will sell day by day or sell on weekly when getting mining reward with bitcoin. But still long time for all bitcoin can mined and keep exist with many mining hunter around the world try to build big project how to mining bitcoin, after several country not allowed for mining always have friendly country already accept them with several service by on new country.

Yes, I'm aware of the speed/bandwidth issues that people used to worry about, I am quite old so I remember reading about email attachments one day breaking the internet because people were attaching full sized photos. My company even got us all through training to resize our jpgs

But I never thought about bitcoin block size like this, I thought it was just about the burden of individual nodes keeping the entire blockchain. Because even I right now couldn't afford to do it. I know there is pruning but I'm not so technical. It's only less than half TB but most of us on PC are still using max 512gb disks I know it's different in Europe maybe but that puts most of us in Asia out.

Bitcoin SV for example is I think 3 TB ++ already and it only started a few years ago? I could be wrong but isn't this problematic for most people at least in Asia.

Well to my own understanding, mining all the bitcoins wouldn’t really have any bad effect on Bitcoin immediately, or maybe not at all. First of all let’s talk about the miners: when all the bitcoins are mined, some people may think that it would affect miners, because their main work in the community is mining cryptocurrency, but we are also forgetting that they are also the ones who confirm transactions that we make, so they would continue to make their income through the transaction fees that we pay every time we send and receive money through Bitcoin.

Then as for Bitcoin itself, people won’t stop selling and buying Bitcoin, it doesn’t matter the price it’s at. There will always be those who are buying and selling it every moment, especially the day traders. So that means that whenever you want to buy, you’ll always see coins to buy and exchanges will always have plenty orders being filled in.

As the number of demand continues to increase, it will lead to increase in price. Sure, it is going to take a really long time for it to really have any impact, because Bitcoin also has fractional parts, such as one satoshi, as time goes on as the amount continues to increase, it may get to a point where people would be interested in buying in fraction and no longer buying In full Bitcoin.

imagine we had a 1sat/byte scenario throughout. meaning 250sat for the average 250byte tx in a 1mb block
ever increasing extreme bitcoin price also increases the $ fee
todays ~$40k/btc = 0.00000250sat= $0.10
future ~$80k/btc = 0.00000250sat= $0.20
future ~$800k/btc = 0.00000250sat= $2.00

yep if bitcoin goes over $800k/btc. the fee will exceed $2 in a 1mb block

so in a real byte/fee for real byte/block
if they remove the cludgy 'witness scale factor" bad math. and allowed say 2mb real byte tx utility
bitcoin can go to $1.6m for a $2 (250byte average tx)


seems the propaganda of us still living in the 1990's of dial up speeds and floppy disk removable storage has still got people enshrined into thinking bitcoin cannot cope with any blocksize scaling..

you do know that watching youtube for 10minutes(720p res) is 250mb and youtube has not broken the internet or your computer
hundreds of millions of people have no issue with streaming at 25mb per minute

dont fear allowing more people to make more transactions per 10 minutes. the fear has just been engrained into you by people who want you to use other networks by saying bitcoin cant scale, just so they can offer you a different network to rest your head against

a HD photo on an iphone is 5mb.. but do you hear screams of "dont upload your photo to social media every 10 minutes or your phone will brake the internet".. nope you dont

Totally makes sense to me. No more new blocks means the incentive has to come from somewhere, if this is fees, then it cannot possibly be rational to charge the cost of mining to consumers so fees will never be the solution.

The only solution is to make BTC price extremely high, while encouraging more txs (as more fees like you say) but is there a way to do so without block increase? Different discoverable new technology?

at the moment the economics of value
is that mining a block(6.25btc) costs (at todays 186exa)
$229,883.12  - $541,292.21 per block (depending on regional costs of electric)
$36,781.30 - $86606.75(ber btc)

if there were no more rewards, and completely reliant of fee's

just to maintain the cost of the same $230k-$540k difficulty to mine(cost per block to re-org transaction list)
each blocks fee total would need to cover this expense of security

if transactions were physically real data bytes of say 250bytes average

then we can assume a few things about the amount of megabytes needed to secure the network based on fee's $ cost
cost of fee:      $16             $8                  $4                   $2
blocksize:   3.6-8.5mb   7.2-16.9mb   14.4-33.8mb    28.8-67.6mb

so if you want to hope for a $2 max fee per transactions blocks need to be upto 68mb a block.

now why should people care about the cost of mining.
well if it only cost the network $10 to mine a block. the network can be attacked CHEAP where by malicious people would go back and edit old blocks and then catch up by spending $10.20 worth of costs(51% attack) per block to be just a lil faster then the network. causing lots of chain reorganisations and making pre-confirmed transactions unconfirm
a 51% attack like just explained. would need 6 block timescale to edit the just confirmed block and then have that lil extra speed to overtake in 6 blocks. to skip ahead to become the new chain height to follow. meaning any transaction value over $61.20 is not 6confirm safe

so its important to make sure its not cheap to mess with the block data history
after all if it costs the networks say $230k to make a block, someone that wants to undo their just confirmed transaction he needs to afford $1.38m upfront to cover costs to orphan off the 6 blocks that still contained his spend he doesnt want spent. meaning $1.38m is deemed just about 6 confirm value secure

now, adding in some considerations. if we deem value of $1.4m is 6 confirm safe. we can even calculate that down
using the $2/tx number.
value deemed 6 confirm safe:       $1.4m            $700k               $350k
blocksize:                               28.8-67.6mb    14.4-33.8mb     7.2-16.9mb

meaning if people want to stay at a 17mb block size limit in many decades. and think $2/tx is a good average fee
they have to adjust their thinking about how much of a spend is not worth unspending.
whereby people would wait
~ an hour(6blocks) for $350k value protection before its not worth the sender trying to unspend (block re-org)
   ~ 2hour(12blocks) for $700k value protection
   ~ 4hour(24blocks) for $1.4m value protection

if people wanted to stay at a lower blocksize with $2 fee
3.6-8.5mb: 1hour $175k value protection
1.8-4.2mb: 1hour $87.5k value protection

so now you have all the variable considerations of how it can affect many things. decisions over the next few year/decades will need to be made.
lower the value protection of 6 confirms to keep blocksize from increasing 30x
increase the blocksize to prevent the fee $ cost from increasing ?x

assumptions can be made. like would people use any payment system that cost $2 per use (people hate paypals 20cent fee after all)
EG if your countries min wage was $8/hour. would you want to pay 2 hours of labour to use a payment system($16).. big no no

Very interesting topic.

Well, As i see it..Once all 21 million bitcoins have been mined,there will be no more economic incentives for miner and the entire cryptocurrencies will collapse..People who owned bitcoin will hold it,for the vision of higher returns..
The price of bitcoin will gonna be more expensive because there are no more bitcoins circulated...

I cannot speculate on that as it has not happened yet.It would make sense as more people keep using bitcoin that as the capacity of transactions goes up, the transaction fees or price will climb as well. Still, i do not want to go on the record as there still a long time till then.

Exactly. Neither of us will be alive by the time all 21 million coins are mined. Anything can happen within 118 years from now. If all goes well, Bitcoin can be worth a lot more than what it is right now. You won't be able to reap the benefits of a high-priced Bitcoin in the future, but your descendants will. No one can tell if Bitcoin will get that far due to its widely-unpredictable nature. Either Bitcoin will survive for generations or fade away into oblivion.

What matters is how Bitcoin is doing right now. We should take every opportunity possible to profit from it before it's too late. As long as it stays decentralized, there should be nothing to worry about. Just my opinion

The total BTC number limited to 21mln. and the last bitcoin will be mined no earlier than 2140 years. But something tells me that no one living today will see this moment. Therefore, what's the difference, what will be the price after all BTC have been mined.

It is difficult to make such forecasts, because the world has been changing very rapidly lately. It is also necessary to take into account many different factors. For example, what place in the world economy will take bitcoin. This will directly affect the price.

If try to predict, then I think bitcoim price will rise, as it has been up to now all the time. This should be affected by the fact that this asset can no longer be mined.

The last bitcoin is expected to be mined in 2140. We see how quickly the world is changing, inventing and applying new technologies. Some explain such a boom by the fact that the world government has long established contact with aliens and uses their outdated technologies. In just a few decades, there was a rapid development of radio electronics, and then the emerging digital technologies. Therefore, even in 50 years, our world will change even more in terms of the development of science and technology. What will happen in another 120 years is hard to imagine. Surely the current cryptocurrency, if it lasts until then, will change a lot. But not we, not even our children and grandchildren will see this. It's too long for a human life.

LOL, when were the miners employed anyway that they will become unemployed? Your basic understanding is flawed here, miners dont mine as a job, it is a voluntary thing to do. Anyone can stop mining at any time if they wish to, it will only make the proportionate rewards more for the rest of the miners.

And mining will not stop after the last block is mined, transactions are mined and they will continue, so mining will too.

Once a miner becomes a pro at mining a certain coin, it is very less likely for them to change over, but this might be a personal choice too.

It will be 119 years from now. We cannot predict what economy will be present then.

Why would someone sell bitcoin to buy bitcoin - makes no sense. Unless you are selling for fiat and then using fiat to buy back - then that is a good thing to do. Scarcity of bitcoin is always rising, so the price will also rise - people would want to spend their bitcoin more carefully and likely the price of goods to buy using bitcoin will be low.

Bitcoin will be worth a lot more in the future, so miners will live comfortably off network fees. The block reward is just an additional incentive to help attract as much miners into Bitcoin as possible. After the network is solidified, fees will be their only source of income. Neither you and I will be alive when all of the Bitcoins are mined, so we'll never know what will happen by then. Either Bitcoin keeps going up in price or goes all the way down the drain. With how Bitcoin's been progressing since day one, I'm certain its price will increase to "infinity and beyond". Just my thoughts

If we do reach up on the year 2140+ where the last bitcoin would be mined then it does signify that we had able to reach out that year and bitcoin had able to survive for how many decades which does imply that price is  already high on that point.

No doubt on that but we can really point out on whats the actual numbers since no one could predict on what would be the future looks like.

But that time then miners would be mainly be making money on pushing transactions since all blocks had been mined or even we do see
some other alternatives aside from bitcoin on that time on where the community had been supporting.

if indeed bitcoin mining is carried out thoroughly maybe this will be very bad, especially for the miners themselves considering the bitcoin price changes in a period of time that we cannot determine, if mining occurs thoroughly this will actually make the bitcoin price decrease because there is no rotation that occurs to bitcoin itself.I think it is a big mistake, we don't necessarily know whether bitcoin will soar to such a high price after we have been mining for so long it will be very risky for us

The price after all Bitcoins are mined will be in line with market demand, if market demand is high then Bitcoin prices will be more expensive over time, and vice versa.
Bitcoin will affect the global economy if everyone only uses Bitcoin as the only means of payment, but this will definitely be hindered by certain circles.