Topic: What effect will Monday's US Congressional hearing have on price? (Read 5711 times)

The hearing itself will just function as a giant commercial for Bitcoin.

The price action will happen when they actually write some regulations.

Price went up after the FINCEN regulation announcement.

And in most other markets, regulation causes prices to go up.

However, this is just one country so it may not have a marked effect, especially now that China has so much more volume, and they only give about 1 1/2 shits about what the U.S. regulators do.

Drinking game: Every time someone mentions one of the Four Horsemen of the Infocalypse in the hearing, take a shot.

(the four horsemen is a term referring to drug dealers, terrorists, money launderers, and child pornographers. i.e. the four most common bogeymen used as an excuse for things like the patriot act, the NDAA, CISPA, SOPA, the constant and unrelenting murder of innocent civilians in the middle east, etc)

So bitcoin will slowly infiltrate the current political structures and government agencies, free-thinking individual by free-thinking individual.  The people that haven't yet "got it" may propose anti-bitcoin regulations and then wonder why there efforts are being hampered and the laws that make it into the books are neutered in such a way as to make them useless.  Slowly, more and more will understand that bitcoin is simply better money.  

The hearing itself will just function as a giant commercial for Bitcoin.

The price action will happen when they actually write some regulations.

Price went up after the FINCEN regulation announcement.

And in most other markets, regulation causes prices to go up.

However, this is just one country so it may not have a marked effect, especially now that China has so much more volume, and they only give about 1 1/2 shits about what the U.S. regulators do.

Drinking game: Every time someone mentions one of the Four Horsemen of the Infocalypse in the hearing, take a shot.

(the four horsemen is a term referring to drug dealers, terrorists, money launderers, and child pornographers. i.e. the four most common bogeymen used as an excuse for things like the patriot act, the NDAA, CISPA, SOPA, the constant and unrelenting murder of innocent civilians in the middle east, etc)

IDK indeed... But think about how absolutely impossible it would be to implement a red list or coin validation system.

Think of the jurisdictional issues - we're talking about a worldwide currency with users in dozens of countries with totally different sets of laws and regulations. And businesses that exist in one or multiple countries, with customers in multiple countries. Who would follow whose taint list, what agency would be responsible for maintaining the lists, how would one appeal a listing of one's coins if the agency made a mistake.....
Think of the ethical issues - we'd be penalizing future holders of coins for the misdeeds of their past owners - who are likely not to be connected with the crime whatsoever. Apply this to the USD for a sec. Think about if some of the laundromat's quarters were not accepted at the bank or by their supplier because they came from a drug dealer. What if the grocery store's money was placed on a blacklist because it came from a scammer/thief... or even worse, what if some of that was the money that  ended up in the cashier's paycheck. Could the cashier afford to hire a lawyer to appeal to the "US. Dollar Taint Council," and could she afford to wait the 8 months required for a decision? The ethical issue is a big one. Policymakers may assume that we'll nab all "black coins" the second they become "black" but this is not possible. Innocent people will get fucked, and they will get fucked big time.
Think of the alt-coins... and how incredibly easy it would be to fool, mix, match, color, taint, untaint, etc.
Think of the exchanges... and how different coins would have different prices based on which countries' redlists or blacklists they were on. There would be multiple exchange rates. Users withdrawing coins would have to choose between "clean coins" (and face a 25% withdrawal fee) or "possibly dirty coins" (and get their whole deposit but with the risk that some of them may be useless at participating businesses.

And that's just the tip of the iceberg in terms of potential complications!

If you really think about its implementation... a redlist/blacklist/validation scheme might be a nice pipe dream in the head of a power-hungry politician, but if implemented, it's going to fail harder than any regulation scheme ever concocted in the history of regulation schemes.

Everyone says "It would sure be nice if we could make it so Pirateeat40 could never spend his coins..." Naive retards. Do they really think it will stop there? Give the government an inch and they take a mile. Be careful what you wish for! I gave an example in the other threads. Of the person who says "I oppose the death penalty... except for that really horrible guy that raped and tortured murdered 15 teenage girls... THERE's the exception." Later in life they may find themselves sitting in death row completely innocent because of a DNA lab fuckup which will only be discovered after they are long dead. So be careful what you wish for, folks who "welcome" a taint list program! Think of how impossible such a program would be to implement, and how it could be abused.... You WILL get fucked, and not in any of the holes you like to get fucked in.

If they implement such a program, I'll be laughing and watching... with a sizeable amount of LTC ;-)

The hearing itself will just function as a giant commercial for Bitcoin.

The price action will happen when they actually write some regulations.

Price went up after the FINCEN regulation announcement.

And in most other markets, regulation causes prices to go up.

However, this is just one country so it may not have a marked effect, especially now that China has so much more volume, and they only give about 1 1/2 shits about what the U.S. regulators do.

Drinking game: Every time someone mentions one of the Four Horsemen of the Infocalypse in the hearing, take a shot.

(the four horsemen is a term referring to drug dealers, terrorists, money launderers, and child pornographers. i.e. the four most common bogeymen used as an excuse for things like the patriot act, the NDAA, CISPA, SOPA, the constant and unrelenting murder of innocent civilians in the middle east, etc)

3pm (ET)  Monday on C-SPAN

Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs
Hearings to examine Silk Road, focusing on potential risks, threats and promises of virtual currencies.

Agreed Congressional hearings are always meh anyway. Political theater. Ever see one with Bernanke?

Senator XYZ: Mr. Bernanke, [5 minute grandstanding on related political issue] blah blah blah, what do you think?

Bernanke: Yes, [5 minute speech on economics using academic terminology that neither makes any sense nor answers the question] blah blah, thank you.

Rinse and repeat for a few hours. It will be a chance for the public to hear more about Bitcoin, which is a good thing.

I can't decide.

Will the $ value drop due to the negativity surrounding any perceived regulatory threat? Will the CNY price rise in sympathy, bouyed by the knowledge that the US market is being stifled?

Or, will the conclusions of the hearing add more perceived legitimacy to Bitcoin in the US, and send the price higher?

Drinking game: Every time someone mentions one of the Four Horsemen of the Infocalypse in the hearing, take a shot.

(the four horsemen is a term referring to drug dealers, terrorists, money launderers, and child pornographers. i.e. the four most common bogeymen used as an excuse for things like the patriot act, the NDAA, CISPA, SOPA, the constant and unrelenting murder of innocent civilians in the middle east, etc)

agreed - no matter what gets said, they are simply confirming the reality that this has arrived and has to be dealt with. That can't be anything but good in the long term.

Luckily, the US usually encourages competition in markets, so Bitcoin might be the darling of both Democrats (competing with western union, large banks, etc.) as well as Republicans (monetary freedom, entrepreneurial businesses etc.).

and I'm sure both parties are interested in bitcoin donations!

This could be framed as a win for everyone. I certainly hope that is the case.  

Idunno. I'm pretty freakin' excited just to see a two-hour Bitcoin discussion on basic cable (... even if it is CSPAN). 

This is probably the most extensive coverage of Bitcoin ever on a television station most US citizens have access to.

i'm nervous about this. are there any sources that talk about what US government officials, in any capacity i guess, think about bitcoin? i haven't seen much talk about this. i guess i will hold regardles.