I think the client takes it as most blocks. In most cases, it's identical.
You make a good point about 1/hash. If someone had 1% of the network and mined 5 blocks behind the head of the chain, then once every 500 blocks, they could reverse the 5 blocks ahead of them.
The 2nd one was what I was suggesting. The gain is that all honest nodes would (subject to network latency) all agree on what was the current head of the chain. The disadvantage is that 1/confirmed would be weaker, since the attacker only needs to find 1 block instead of 2.