Topic: What happens to BITCOIN next ? (Read 307 times)

Definitely plausible. I agree that sentiment is too bearish and warrants a short squeeze.

We have horizontal resistance, the descending trend line from June, and the 20-week MA all in the $8,500 area. So that's a pretty smart area to sell (even if the bottom is in).


What's the importance of $5,000?

Basically always on new year bitcoin have lower price and hard to raise with higher price, wait one month later after new year and bitcoin slowly get back to higher price although have halving event, now only take controlling with bitcoin price at day by day have new way to make bitcoin back to higher price or not, or bitcoin keep with lower price.

I think we are basically Long term bullish, short term bearish. I do however think we will hit $8K before we head back down to test the $5000 area. Why? I think that we will retrace at least 50% from the $10.3K top to the $6600 bottom and try and create a headfake. Because right now too many people are bearish and it would be difficult to hit $5000 if there are no longs left to liquidate.

So we might hit $8500 or so, create a huge short squeeze and at the same time start trapping some longs, and those trapped longs will be liquidated to take us below the $6600 and eventually maybe to $5500 which is the 200 WMA and from there we will consolidate around the halving and then hopefully we will reach $10K-$15K sometime in late 2020 or early 2021.

I would like a new ATH but you need to be realistic and look at the weekly charts, the $13.8K top we got this year was a failed lower higher and not looking good. As long as we dont go lower than $5000 then all is good.

analyzing the graph and seeing the state of the bitcoin market really needs to be done before investing in bitcoin. but the existence of technical analysis does not mean we can predict the price of bitcoin correctly. bitcoin prices are very volatile, not easy to predict, it can change drastically at any time. and in my opinion bitcoin will start to increase in March 2020.

That's quite funny. I'm pretty sure that you haven't been warning people in a similar fashion for buying at levels close to the $14,000 peak this year.

Technically speaking, there is far less risk involved buying today than there was buying at any level above $10,000. Everything you do in this market is risky, but one is better off buying into a ~50% dip from the high than buying into an obvious fomo market.

The bull run that we have had this year was very small compared to the ones in the past, so the market has to shake out fewer weak hands. On top of that, it's extremely difficult to get more bearish with the block halving coming up.

remember this is the end of the year, maybe some people will withdraw bitcoin from their assets to accumulate for a year,
maybe if you want to buy it better to wait for the right time this is very risky

well it literally broke out today, however, we have a massive cme gap in price right not of around 200 dollars. Historically all of these gaps get filled so there's a good chance that this week is going to be some steady downwards price action again until we reach the bottom of the gap at around 7250, after that next week maybe moon if we don't break lower than the 7100 support.

It's actually a good read when someone shares his analysis about the market but like they say, it's still unpredictable but I have seen predictions and analysis that became real so I'm open to such analysis because I'm not good at it.

Many have stayed to the forum for how many years because we're all thinking the same although we're still on the early days of it, we can actually see the great future that's on its shoulder. You should go and back read some historical posts of the forum, how much was the price and discussions like this they have before.

Analysis works and every trader must done this thing before trading. The market looks like pumping now and will never touch the support 2 because its time to go up now. If we are able to break the first resistance then it will continue beyond $10k again which is good for us. I do use my own analysis every time i trade, rely on yourself first.

It's good to look for confluence between Fibonacci levels and horizontal support/resistance. In the $5,500 area we have both pivot support from last April and the 0.786 level.

Next, I would look at the $4,300 area because we have pivot resistance from December 2018 and this past February, plus the 0.886 level.

If we hit the $4,000s again I'll be pretty pessimistic though. Retracing virtually all of the 2019's gains will look pretty bearish.

We open the working week at resistance, I'd expect movement from there if main markets enter after the weekend and prior holidays.



Above 2 day and 8 day averages, I dont think its especially in the clear till past the 50 day average.    Seems to me we have a journey ahead over many weeks and its not likely to break out right now but we do have positive momentum for some days now and that can always snowball into more.

Even I have seen similar analyses in the past and most of the users tend to believe in such an analysis wherein everything is clearly explained. Just by looking at the bitcoin trend from the past few days it's heading in the right direction but it will not take a long time for any change. Let's spread positivity about bitcoin as there is a good number of FUDs spread across the forum.

For someone who just recently learned about technical analysis I should say you did a good job, those are very close numbers (or exact numbers could be as well) for what the support and resistance is laid right now which is probably the most important aspects of crypto because those are the numbers we can go up or down to easily yet hard to break when we reach and also easy if we could break those numbers as well which makes the decisions of buying or selling around those numbers very easily.

For example, if 8100ish prices are resistance, then buying at 8200 is smart, you could buy from 8200 and will be able to profit until we fail or succeed until 9300, if we fail you can sell, if we go beyond that you can keep it until next till we can't break any resistance, same method for selling and buying at support levels and if we go below them.

first I will appreciate you, because in my opinion this is an extraordinary analysis for a beginner. honestly I am not too interested in this problem, there have been many people who have made this kind of analysis but only some of them have proven to be true. I am very sure if bitcoin has a very bright future, that is the reason I remain in this forum.

I agree with you ... not as long as technical analysts are able to predict what the market is considering the bitcoin market is always fluctuating and changing always there are other aspects that can hitchhike and change everything ... but I'm just here to give an idea about BITCOIN using the TA that I learned ......
Thanks for your advice

Thanks for your constructive advice .... for honest reference i don't have other than i learned from google in determining support and resist and also learned a lot about indicators in TA, i also learned from twitter some people like johnMcAfee, Tom lee and my others I just learned and am still new to TA but I will try my best .....

I agree with you TA analysts are only to help us better understand the market movement of BITCOIN and certainly not to know the future in the market with certainty...
This is only a precautionary measure what will happen but it all comes back to each of us trusting or not

Thanks you for @AliMan for helping me explain, I just want to add a little to @bittraffic, of course the possibilities are always there but in my opinion each time frame also determines the support and resistance points of a TA could be and did not rule out the possible support points on TF 1H is different from TF in 4H, D1, D4 ... etc BUT nothing is certain in this case thinking TA only helps us to take action

I agree with your opinion that in TA we always have to consider everything temporarily without exception because in the bitcoin market price movements are always fast and fluctuating and cannot be predicted precisely so let's hope for the best for bitcoin prices



I hope that with this tread, it can open up your wider view of TA and its indicators ...
There is still so much we have to learn and let's get dizzy together wkwkwkkw   

Even if it's purely theoretical it has been accepted to be more tgan edycated guessing and is a thousand times more better than just gut-feeling your trade. TA has been used for years in both trading as well as investing even before the crypto market existed if it didn't workout for both the stock market and the forex TA would simply end it's existence for just merely being a theory. TA is more just the study of candles and charts of an asset because like I said in the past TA is actually more about the study of the traders' behaviour and how they will react to the market based on that for example rising volume and price could indicate an increased in demand while a decrease in price as well as volume could inducate a decreased in demand. IMO TA is more than shooting blanks in tge market as you really have a live ammunition helping you.

the problem with TA is that it is purely theoretical and in most of the times it is far from the reality. for example in this case the number you have come up with as support and resistances are theoretically correct but realistically wrong.
what happens is that right now there is no reason for any more drops. there is a very strong buy support and also previous attempts at manipulation dumps failed hard as price bounced back up fast.
as for resistance, all we need is a tiny momentum to see mid 2018 be repeated and in a blink of an eye price reaches something like $13k again with a nice FOMO.

Nice analysis. Though the support levels at 6.4k is a bit low to start off with don't you think? Shouldn't it start off with 6.8k or so? Also, BTC has broken through 7.3k multiple times but it has failed to breakthrough the 7.5k barrier, and has only done so a few times this month. Sadly, it can't force it's way through for these past few weeks. If we were to look at it like this though, the fact that BTC broke down to 6.8k could be the said factor that raised the price of BTC lately to 7.8k, since it failed to break through past 6.8k anymore. Anw, nice analysis bro.

as a trader I have not tried how to use the Fibonacci indicator, usually I only use the RSI and MACD indicators no more, but as a trader I understand because not all have the same way of thinking and always have a different point of view in analyzing, I see buying support in $ 5500 isn't sure it's at $ 44xx, but it's nice to see your Fibonacci

Good analysis, I agree with most of it, but I disagree with you on two points. The quotation is below:

Resistance levels at $ 6,400 require something to happen that pushes the price down for that level, something that has not been proven yet, so it is not likely "in the current circumstances" to see a decline of that level.
If the decline is confirmed below 6,400, we will not stop at $ 5,000, as there is no historical resistance at $ 4,000, so the levels of $ 3,000 are more likely.

So SUPPORT 1 & SUPPORT 2 are just temporary support levels.