Topic: What if it just doesn't go down again? (Read 1901 times)

I'll answer tomorrow in the Astro thread, just moving to house sit atm

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From a very long term perspective, it is super bullish

For most of the people on the earth, after they have established well and have bought their house, the only demand is more money for saving

But it is very difficult to save those money in dollar's form, since in current monetary system, all the dollar saving will incur some debt at somewhere else in the society, cause a backfire and hurt the future income

Housing used to play the role as both living and saving tools, but now when most of people have had their house, it is very difficult to find the next demand that huge enough to push the economy forward, high speed train project, green energy, IT infrastructure modernisation, these are all the desperate attempt to restart the economy growth, but they are in no way getting close to the effect of housing

But saving is different, unlike housing, the demand for saving is endless, especially when many people are currently debt laiden. One might be satisfied with one house, and feel more troublesom to maintain more than 2 houses, but he will not feel uncomfortable with billions worth of saving in his account

Of course if BTC really developed itself into a bubble, FED might be worried and want to tighten, but they also need something to jumpstart the economy, so BTC might give them some help now

Thinking about a future with many professional miners and ASIC companies, BTC online service provider, BTC buyers and sellers... Just like what is happening with gold now. Unlike gold, the BTC business is still in it's early stage, have a huge market potential

Or just say screw that and dollar cost average a set amount with each paycheck.  When it jumps up spend a few.  If it falls, just enjoy the discount when make your buy and spend your USD.

Sure it will pull back.  No trajectory is smooth.  But the question you need to ask yourself is will it pull back to 35 from a high of 50, or to 15 from 25?

Long time no update.  How's the sky look for your vantage point?  I'm seeing deep conflict in general but not sure how bitcoin fits in.

/offtopic

Sure, everything is a Ponzi as soon you become a slave to your own greed. If people just traded assets because they needed them for consumption, the world would never have seen any kind of bubbles.

So we like capatalism and want to get rich, but we blame the system and not our own falwed logic, about money for nothing, when things go wrong.

Humankind is really doomed. But yes, If you are investing. you belive that others are going to loose their money so you make a profit. We are exactly as bad as the banks! Actually the whole world of economics is a ponzi scheme, didn't you know?

funny... this sounds exactly like a ponzi scheme if you believe that this is going to happen you should put a sign on your head: "BAGHOLDER"

it's funny not because BITCOIN IS A PONZI LAWL

but rather because markets don't allow such things to happen. the 'weak hands to strong hands' point is a very prescient one. long squeezes will occur regularly and force some people 'out of the game' so that fewer and fewer profit in the end. this will have the effect of moving the price around a (probably steadily increasing) price point in a very complex way. good luck predicting that stochastic-ass behavior.

Rule #1: Markets go up AND down.

If you put in $1000 in bitcoin 16 months ago, you would have 500 Bitcoins worth $10.000 now. If you invest $1000 today , you will have 40 Bitcoins.

To make as much money as he did, price has to rise to $200 for a Bitcoin, so the money inflow has to be exponential this year also, if you are gonna make as much money as the first investor.
Thats less likely, so you are running a greater risk than the first investor. If you invest $10.000 today, so you are on par with the first investor, your chance is a lot better for a doubling in price, so you get out with $20.000.

Both of you are getting out with $20.000, you paid $10.000 for them, he paid $1000.

So small investors have less chance of a jackpot now, than they did a year ago. Simmilar, the guy willing to pay $10.000 today, to get into Bitcoin is also nesscesary if the first investor want to cash out today.

Bitcoin is attracting bigger but more short term investors.

So the real life business with Bitcoin, trading of goods, has to grow exponentially also, as it might do right now because of a lot of interest in Bitcoin, but it can't continue forever. As soon as the increase in interest is slowing down to a more normal level, the very large and late "professional" only into it for the money, investors will cash out, at that point there might be enough real life business with Bitcoin for it not to crash, but there is no complete market analysis figures of the Bitcoin economy now, everybody are guessing, myself included.

If you buy Bitcoin to use and dont care much about speculation in price, go ahead buy 4 Bitcoins for $100, but don't expect them to be worth $1000 next year, the chance of that to happen is less for every year in any kind of market.

So is Bitcoin a good long term investment? I can't really tell. Will it increase forever? NO, you bet on it.
 

Stops going down != keeps going up

This chart desribed a price bubble caused by central bank's money supply intervention, in BTC's case, since itself is a currency, all the traditional wisdom of investment might not fit

Isn't that why we are all really here? 

But seriously, I highly doubt this upward march will continue without some kind of correction. The price marched up $4usd this week!

But what do I know, I'm just holding my bitcoins and spending some when I find something I want(replacing the balance with my fiat dollars of course). I just like to watch the price @_@

My guess: both at the moment.  I just read a comment on an exchange from a guy who didn't know you could mine coins...  That stuff makes me nervous, though I am still bullish mid- to long-term.  On the other hand, I think bitcoin has survived long enough already for 'serious money' to start taking notice and start moving in.

There has to be USD <-> BTC trades to discover the price, but inflow of money is not necessary. Only changes of the value scales of the bitcoin users.

notig, good point.

Ask yourself, folks, whether the price is moving because 1000 of students decided to make money on daytrading Bitcoin and moved in or because CEO and CFO of wordpress and their ilk have decided to load up on bitcoin and hold it for next 20-30 years in "my wife will not get it" fund.

There is a constant growing flow of money into bitcoin. the only question is........ when these holders of larger sums of bitcoins sell them.. is their money going to come back in or are they out for good? I bet a major portion will just get fed back into the whole system.

That will be only those who do not dump all their bitcoins once it hit 100$ and wait to dump 5% of their bitcoins once it hits 10 000$. Just an example.

Bitcoins are moving from weak hands to strong hands and will continue to move in that direction for quite some time.

What if it just doesn't go down again?

that's what she said

Well I imagine we'd dip again at some point, I'd still like to believe we're in the Stealth to Awareness phases.  Not quite Pubic or that huge spike just yet.

But man, if that curve was even halfway realistic, our little $20+ bump we're seeing could be dwarfed by the climb to come.  Which goes back to that earlier comment of being rich.

It'd be nice, that's for sure!  But the world needs to work with it and pick it up.