P2P and real decentralized exchanges will be the new normal. However, a worldwide centralized exchange ban will come with a total crypto ban probably and that means even the decentralized exchanges won't have much volume because people will be afraid to touch crypto. I doubt that the govs will do something as stupid as this though. In many parts of the world they are taxing crypto gains and it benefits the govs a lot. It is like owning a huge share in the the biggest casino of the world. They won't kill a business like that. They don't care who makes or loses money. The gov will take their cut anyway.
When it comes to Bitcoin, I guess the governments would rather take the if you can't beat them, join them approach than waging an all-out war. They can't kill it anyway. And unlike meth and arms smuggling and other illegal stuff, Bitcoin isn't actually bad for people. So it's easy for them to just allow it, regulate it, and earn from it. It isn't a crime, after all, so why should they allow it to be a cause of unnecessary headaches?
At this point in Bitcoin's adoption, I can't see it losing. So while centralized exchanges are an antithesis of Bitcoin's core principles, they'll definitely be accommodated by governments rather than banned.
