Hi Guys,
I have been wondering lately about bitcoin and what could drive adoption. To me the problem with bitcoin from an end user perspective is that there is no reason for anyone to use it really.
I am a huge fan of BTC and i have invested a big chunk of my cash into it. I have also played with it and payed with it, switched buying on amazon to overstock etc. However the key issue is that from an end user perspective there is really no reason to use it just yet. It seems everything is a bit more complicated, technical and risky with bitcoin.
I believe that in order for bitcoin to be adopted we need an app or functionality that really is new and satisfies a need of a large amounts of people and value.
The internet has many examples (email, chat, IM, twitter, facebook etc) that from the beginning provided some key innovations that could only be done with the internet and there is no technology that can substitute. Bitcoin has a bit of an issue with coming up with similar examples. Now a killer app does not need to be completely new, but radically improve. I.e. chat is possible over the phone or on the street, but to do it over the internet is a major improvement.
I believe one of the killer apps has just been launched: betting. I know most people think this is not significant but let me explain why betting could be truly huge and how it is different from the gambling that we know.
As an example take sportsbetting. Currently via counterparty you can bet on the world cup peer to peer. Why is this huge? Why should you care and even place a bet if u care about bitcoin and want to support.
1. Sportbetting is big business. It is estimated to be a $1 Trillion market. If bitcoin will take over this market that means $1 trillion USD needs to flow into bitcoin. that would roughly increase the price 1000 fold. However it could be much larger because of 2. Think a factor of 2-5 times as big as it is today because of bitcoin (my guess).
2. Sportsbetting today is practically unbeatable. The reason is players are always betting against a sportsbook or bookmaker. In order for that 3rd party to make a profit they need to give players bad odds. They change the odds usually by 10%. This fee is so high that only very few players can actually beat the game, due to variance/luck involved. think about it if it were easy to beat the house some corp would simply take a bunch of money and break the sports book. Since you can't beat the house most sane people will either bet small amounts or simply not bet on sports. However if the vig (name of the fee) is removed the game becomes profitable or break even for a large amount of players. It now becomes a good bet for many players and an actual skill game.
In essence sportsbetting and other forms of betting are naturally good things and markets that find its balance naturally but are highly distorted by a 3rd party that needs to make a profit and charge for risk and running the system.
So there is one potential app in the western world to pick this up rather quickly. Because it is $1 trillion I think it is the first potential killer app out there that could solve a real problem for people that like sports and want to wager on it.
This is different from gambling because it does not really matter if you make a game with negative expectation (i.e. roulette ) into a game that is just a bit cheaper (i.e. dice) the end game is the same: you make a bet and lose a tiny bit of it every time to make it for the chance to win sometimes when luck is on your side. This is why gambling ans satoshi dice is not a killer app.
If you agree with me go over to xbet.io or counterparty.io and support these guys by making a bet or tell ur friends that bet on sports about it. You can even go to a sportsbook and lay the exact same odds as the casino and hope some idiot takes your bet.
Also I would like to know from you, what do you think is the next, or first killer app for bitcoin. What else can you image that would truly make people have to buy and use bitcoin?
