I do not believe that this is accurate, right now we do only have two options. Since the BIP proposals you mention are a part of the Bitcoin Core and have not been implemented,
and as far as I understand it, never will. So unless you can point me towards an alternative hard fork away from core that is not XT, then unfortunately we do still only have two options.
Nobody can be sure of that.
There are people who believe in the first option (that is block limit should
never be raised). This is different opinion than something like the second option "Wait (until full blocks are generated and transactions rejected) then, after several weeks or months (but not years) of this situation, change Core implementation to address this issue".
Of course, situation is complicated by number of people who say "Lets wait, lets discuss more", but in reality they want to postpone block size increase forever. (But not all of them are such dishonest. Staying with Core for now, rejecting both XT and BIP101 does not mean block size limit 1MB forever.)
On the other side there are also dishonest people who say "Lets increase block size limit", but actually want to disrupt economics of mining or piggyback and enforce some other changes (not, they are not bitcoins blacklisting, yes they are unfriendly to TOR, security risk and a potential pre-step to higher government-friendly/business-friendly control).
Fierce discussions stem from the fact that Bitcoin is many (different) things to many people and they have different interests (financial and others). Should Bitcoin serve more the early adopters, recent adopters, new adopters, general public or business startups? Should it serve as store of value, payment system, underlying technology for other projects? Should it promote anonymity, responsibility and freedom or rather social utility, security and regulation? What to what extent?
Well said, you should know that there is actually an alternative version of XT that only changes the block size. You could even run a patched version of Core that implements BIP101. The block size increase is the only fundamental change to the protocol, the other features within XT are all optional. Therefore the discussion should be about BIP101, since those other features should be irrelevant to the discussion in terms of reaching consensus.
You ask many good questions here, and I think that it is important. Sometimes I think that some people are only looking at it from one perspective. For instance it might be true that from an engineers or IT specialist perspective it makes more sense to not increase the block size, however from a political or economic perspective the answer to that question could be different. A centralized network is certainly more efficient then a decentralized one, however from a political and economics perspective, a network that is decentralized is "better" depending on your ideology. What I am trying to say I suppose is that it is a question about politics and economics and should not just be perceived from the perspective of an engineer or IT specialist.
I would like to ask you the question since you seem like a reasonable person. How long would you wait for Core to switch to BIP101 if they do not increase the block size? I hope that you would switch over to BIP101 before the network becomes overloaded.
Oh. This will be a "little" longer than I expected.AnswerPersonally, I will wait for other alternatives than BIP101. I do not like the idea of doubling max block size every two years up to 8 GB in 2036. I do not like the change which is so controversial. If there ever is block size change, I tend to support dynamic resize based on algorithmic rules and influenced as little as possible by politics and economics.
I also think that no block size change is quite good solution (but not the only possible one and the only right one). I do not think that network overload (if it means filled blocks and competition for free space in blocks and/or reach of transaction per second limit) is a big problem.
So, personally, I am quite close to the "never ever increase max block size" opinion. But if there is reasonable consensus (not judged by quantity, economic or political power of supportive majority, but rather by absence of reasonable opposition) about block size changes, I will switch.
Foundation of the answerPerhaps I should explain my reasons for this opinion. (Although I might be called blockstrem proponent and opposing natural Bitcoin development. - I will get to this.) I was not part of blocksize increase debate, so I might be repeating some things already said.
My main reason is this: Bitcoin is what it is and it should remain this way as unique alternative. People (economics, business, politics, security habits of general public, etc.) should adapt to Bitcoin (original proposal and hardcoded rules), not the other way around. Or they should use something else. The former (BTC protocol and rules) is relatively easy to objectively define, the latter (people opinions and interests) is very subjective, varied and prone to manipulation.
Bitcoin is unique in some of its rules, is offers an alternative which is absent elsewhere. All these voices about "Bitcoin should support this and Bitcoin should support that..." call for something which is already there, which is close to something which is already there, or for something which can easily be constructed separately from Bitcoin. One of the most valuable things about Bitcoin is its predictability. Even if it sometimes goes against some ideas of fairness or utility. People base their decisions, security habits, investments, business plans according to these set rules. It is not right to change rules on the go, even if majority (by the number of votes, economic strength or political power) thinks so. Ideologically, this is question whether popular democracy (with "everything is subject to voting and majority overrule") is better or constitutional republic (with almost unchangeable Constitution everybody can rely on) is better.
Where I see dangers of XT-like path of Bitcoin development and decision-makingSorry for several straw-man arguments in the bellow examples. They are here to demonstrate principles. I do not actually believe this is the way of thinking of XT proponents and their intentions or "next goal".Let me state several examples: coin cap leading to natural deflation, big bitcoin wealth of early adopters, destroyed bitcoins, all money laundering/crime fighting/counterterrorism concerns. What if someone designs Bitcoin hardfork (client distributed primarily in the form of mass-user-friendly and business-friendly binaries, distributed as part of Windows OS/iOS/official Android distro, but with verifiable open source and clearly stated intentions). Doing this:
- remove of coin cap (block reward halving) - because it is "unfair" to the late miners. Also there is prevailing economic opinion (not among the early bitcoiners, but among general public and respected economists) that inflation is necessary for debts to work and decrease, that hoarding is worse than malinvestment, etc.
- blocking bitcoins older than 2011 which did not move since then - just imagine someone designs client ignoring such bitcoins and rejecting blocks containing transactions with them. Offering this client widely to the miners and users, selling this as "You will profit on this! Only ones who will lose are some undeserved long forgotten early adopters!"
- recycling bitcoins unmoved for longer than 5 (or 10, or 25) years and slowly distributing them to the block rewards - all miners would jump on this!!! Who cares about few lunatics with hoarded BTC and plans for century. They probably lost their privkeys and do not contribute to the society, right? Right??
- implementing some AML/KYC/anti-terrorism/anti-pedo/anti-gunmen4hire/anti-blackmail features - with simultaneous (or closely preceding) clear commitment of governments and/or big business: "If this is implemented, we will allow BTC, endorse BTC, jump in"
Is it right to construct such client (implementing some or all of above) and throw it into wild for "public vote"?? Yes, it is possible (and actually quite easy) to do such a thing, it will happen more and more and free market will decide. However we must be very, very careful to change core rules according to some group interests and perceived good. Because once we open this Pandora box, we will never stop and there will always be some next one and next one majority group hijacking the rules.
Concerning Blockstream... and LTC counterexampleThis is a part, where I will be like... I do not know much about it, but nevertheless I dare to have a strong opinion. Also more straw-man-like arguments for clarification of some unreasonable principles. Again, I do not believe that all (or even majority) of XT proponents would actually say that.Accusation of side interests of many core developers is serous thing. And it means their proposals should be subject to greater scrutiny and discussion because of that. But what it they are right nevertheless? If we can not reasonably refute their arguments, we should not reject them just because it (also) serves their interests.
I do know almost nothing about Blockstream. I should read about it, what exactly it is, what it does and how. I understand it is project (where core developers are participating) addressing some perceived flaws and limitations of Bitcoin. For example allowing higher transaction rate and transactions aggregation using Bitcoin blockchain as source of settlement and trust and so on. So what? Some people are using current, expected, well known Bitcoin characteristics to build business project around it (and to earn money, and fame and influence). They are not the first nor the last. Anyone can do that or even copy and improve their solution.
I was not around when Litecoin was created. But I think, it was also created to address some perceived flaws. Eg. faster block generation and resistance to ASIC. Imagine dispute in those times. Nobody knew if Litecoin will take over due ti its "advantages". Imagine people fiercely accusing Litecoin creators of blocking natural Bitcoin development (ASIC-resistance for example) so their child Litecoin could be only viable alternative. "Because ASIC-resistance and scrypt is CLEARLY way to go for cryptocurencies if we do not want big-miners centralization... we are FORCED to use their LTC if they block such changes in Bitcoin core." I would probably say in those times: "Yes, scrypt is advantageous to some people. So let them use Litecoin if they believe so. Others can create another solutions (now called Altcoins). Perhaps they will be (eventually) right and some altcoin will prevail. But let the ones who believe in core Bitcon rules their alternative!"
So nowadays, I am not convinced that bigger block is CLEARLY way to go for cryptocurencies. I see how it can benefit some groups of people. But I do not think that even small groups with "extreme" views such as "Bitcoin should be exclusive to small responsible tech-savvy group and majority of population should use some user-friendly solutions build on top of (predictable and stone-ruled) Bitcoin." should be overruled. This is not because I entirely agree with them. This is because I do not know how exactly limited block size will affect different groups and I am not convinced it will surely prohibit mass adoption of Bitcoin technology. I see Bitcoin working for 6 years with unparalleled resistance to all problems. An it is due to fact that Bitcoin is what it is and it is unique.
Status quo is the most natural state of things for Bitcoin! "Opposing the natural development of Bitcoin" is problematic assessment, because people disagree on what is the natural development and what it should be. People promoting block size limit (staying fixed) expressed such opinions long before Blockstream. Blockstream was created from the preexisting conviction that rules should not change. Not the other way around.
It might seem
little insidious to make your business plan with the assumption that Bitcoin rules will not change and you will make money of this. (By offering some solution which bridges the gaps and disadvantages.) But many people do this! Many subject did and do relay on (very strongly) fixed rules and make their competing business plans. Do we accuse SPV wallets designers like Multibit, Electrum, Mycellium to block changes that would make Bitcoin more accessible and easy to use? Did we accuse Slush in 2010 of blocking changes in mining rules, so that he can profit from his pooled mining? Or do we accuse hardware wallet developers of blocking Bitcoin security changes (that would made their hardware wallets uninteresting)? No. All these started with the deep understanding how Bitcoin works, assumption that Bitcoin is not perfect, that it will reasonably stay this way for a very long time, identified their view of disadvantages an opportunities and adapted.
It is
much more insidious to make your business plan with the assumption that Bitcoin will change exactly the way you want it to change and then force that change as necessary. If you tailor the changes the way you feel right then only people thinking like you or with similar interests can compete with you. This can create difficult to reproduce solutions, because if you know that Bitcoin will change some specific way, you can prepare in advance.
If Bitcoin changes or evolves too much too often, which changes should you then expect and plan for? On the other hand if people can expect that almost nothing will change then overwhelming number of subjects can plan for this and try to come up with their competing solutions built on top of the Bitcoin infrastructure.