Topic: what is data size of a transaction? (Read 510 times)
Thank you DannyHamilton for the example above that is like a written play between three people.
3 blocks in a row: 5392 times.
The current block height is 717,165
5392 / 717165 = 0.75%
That's a 0.75% chance of pulling off the scam in any single attempt and an 18.75 BTC cost if you fail.
Unless you get quite lucky, you're going to need a scam value of 2,494 BTC (that's more than $112,230,000 at today's exchange rate) for an equivalent expected value.
pooya87 successfully mines a block containing Transaction_B, and decides to broadcast it immediately cashing in on both the 6.25 BTC block reward as well as the 10 BTC DannyHamilton just paid him, and then runs off with the 10 BTC. There is nothing DannyHamilton can do. pooya87 can simply deny all knowledge, and even if DannyHamilton can prove that pooya87 has scammed him, he can only do so by first outing himself as an attempted scammer.
True. My example was built on the assumption that pooya87 and DannyHamilton could be relied on to actually cooperate with each other. Other examples can be bilt that would reduce or eliminate this risk, but they pass additional risk on to one of the other 2 parties and/or increase the overall risk that the scam fails entirely.
0.1467 works out to a chance of 0.00014%.
This is indeed the chance per block.
That gives them about 0.6% chance of finding 7 blocks in a row in a month. With 5 large mining pools, the chance of either one of them finding 7 blocks in a row during a month becomes a few percent. During a year, it becomes quite likely one of the large pools will find 7 blocks, which is indeed what happens once in a while. This is indeed the chance per block.
That 0.088% chance is per block, right?
Thinking about this more closely, I think I'm wrong to use the equation in the whitepaper.The equation in the whitepaper is looking at overcoming an x block deficit at any point, whereas here we are looking at mining blocks in a row. So for example, if I mine 3 blocks in secret, but then the main chain mines 1, I can still keep going with my chain but my advantage is now only 2 blocks. Whereas in our scenario here, if I mine 3 blocks, but then the main chain mines 1, my chain is broken and I have to start again.
I think the equation to use here is simply proportion of hashrate raised to number of blocks in the chain, so in this case 0.1467.
With 14.6% of the hashrate, F2Pool have a probability of 0.146 to find the next block. If they do find the next block, they again have a probability of 0.146 to find the block after that, or 0.1462, and so on.
0.1467 works out to a chance of 0.00014%.
This is indeed the chance per block.
According to https://btc.com/stats/pool?pool_mode=month, F2Pool have had 14.6% of the hashrate over the last month. There was therefore a 0.088% chance of them finding 7 blocks in a row.
That 0.088% chance is per block, right? Not per month? If it's per block, it becomes quite likely to happen during a month with thousands of blocks. The one on top happened just last week, and all three happened in the past 10 weeks.
According to https://btc.com/stats/pool?pool_mode=month, F2Pool have had 14.6% of the hashrate over the last month. There was therefore a 0.088% chance of them finding 7 blocks in a row.But that also means 19 out of 20 times you missed out on the block reward, and that makes it very costly to attempt, especially since 2 confirmations is probably not enough for a large transaction to be accepted.
It's even worse than that. The calculations given in the whitepaper are to overcome a (for example) 2 block deficit and catch up to the main chain. But even if you pull that off, then you are only at the same height as the main chain, and every other miner on the network is already working on the next block for the main chain and won't accept your alternate chain unless you overtake the main chain. So with 10% of the hashrate, you have a 1 in 20 chance of catching up to the main chain, and even if you do that then you only have a 1 in 10 chance of finding a block at height+1 and overtaking the main chain. The GHash.IO numbers skew things a little, since they did control over 51% of the hashrate for a brief time in 2014.
That's why I added the block numbers. If I ignore the very old blocks, these are the recent ones:Code:
7: 715912-715918 F2Pool
6: 707977-707982 F2Pool
6: 706455-706460 AntPool
Quote
With 10% of the hashrate, you still have a 5% chance to overcome a 2 block deficit
So if you try 20 times, it becomes quite likely to succeed once! But that also means 19 out of 20 times you missed out on the block reward, and that makes it very costly to attempt, especially since 2 confirmations is probably not enough for a large transaction to be accepted.This got me curious: how often has it happened?
As your data show, it is not that rare. Although you need 51% of the hashrate to be sure of overcoming the main chain eventually (provided you can sustain this hashrate for the length of time needed), you do not need 51% of the hashrate to have a reasonable chance of overcoming the main chain. Although not quite the same (since it is calculating ever catching up to the main chain, as opposed to mining x blocks in a row starting from now), this is essentially laid out in Section 11 - Calculations of the whitepaper. With 10% of the hashrate, you still have a 5% chance to overcome a 2 block deficit. With 30%, you have a 45% chance.With 20% of the hashrate, which some large pools frequently have, then you still have a 0.1% chance to overcome a 10 block deficit. The GHash.IO numbers skew things a little, since they did control over 51% of the hashrate for a brief time in 2014.
So the pool owner himself can do this with less risk.
Yes, provided the users mining on that pool don't realize what is going on and abandon that pool, which could lead to complete collapse of the pool forever. Meanwhile, unless the pool controls nearly half of the entire world's hashpower, the chances that they will solve the next 3 blocks in a row before the rest of the world succesfully solves 3 blocks are very very slim.
This got me curious: how often has it happened? At Bitcoin block data available in CSV format, I have Blockchair.com's guessed_miner data (with 36% Unknown).I checked (from yesterday's data) how many times a
10 blocks in a row: once.
9 blocks in a row: once.
8 blocks in a row: 4 times.
7 blocks in a row: 13 times.
6 blocks in a row: 60 times.
5 blocks in a row: 234 times.
4 blocks in a row: 1033 times.
3 blocks in a row: 5392 times.
2 blocks in a row: 35045 times.
Code:
occurrence: block-range guessed_miner
10: 308424-308433 GHash.IO
9: 299449-299457 GHash.IO
8: 414125-414132 F2Pool
8: 305003-305010 GHash.IO
8: 303131-303138 GHash.IO
8: 303107-303114 GHash.IO
7: 715912-715918 F2Pool
7: 578401-578407 BTC.com
7: 522022-522028 BTC.com
7: 509782-509788 BTC.com
7: 508731-508737 BTC.com
7: 414688-414694 F2Pool
7: 412349-412355 F2Pool
7: 403771-403777 AntPool
7: 391394-391400 AntPool
7: 349830-349836 AntPool
7: 308180-308186 GHash.IO
7: 305153-305159 GHash.IO
7: 284432-284438 GHash.IO
6: 707977-707982 F2Pool
6: 706455-706460 AntPool
6: 680586-680591 AntPool
6: 658974-658979 F2Pool
6: 630804-630809 F2Pool
6: 630266-630271 F2Pool
6: 525832-525837 BTC.com
6: 524568-524573 AntPool
6: 522065-522070 BTC.com
6: 516800-516805 BTC.com
6: 514250-514255 BTC.com
6: 500800-500805 AntPool
6: 495737-495742 AntPool
6: 480198-480203 AntPool
6: 476916-476921 AntPool
6: 432537-432542 AntPool
6: 419118-419123 BW.COM
6: 414777-414782 F2Pool
6: 410351-410356 F2Pool
6: 409903-409908 AntPool
6: 402257-402262 AntPool
6: 397804-397809 F2Pool
6: 396191-396196 F2Pool
6: 383310-383315 AntPool
6: 383069-383074 F2Pool
6: 373894-373899 AntPool
6: 369377-369382 AntPool
6: 332841-332846 GHash.IO
6: 330193-330198 F2Pool
6: 326306-326311 F2Pool
6: 316569-316574 GHash.IO
6: 316512-316517 GHash.IO
6: 314858-314863 GHash.IO
6: 311072-311077 GHash.IO
6: 308892-308897 GHash.IO
6: 307634-307639 GHash.IO
6: 307509-307514 GHash.IO
6: 306597-306602 GHash.IO
6: 306505-306510 GHash.IO
6: 305487-305492 GHash.IO
6: 305479-305484 GHash.IO
6: 304605-304610 GHash.IO
6: 303980-303985 GHash.IO
6: 303485-303490 GHash.IO
6: 303152-303157 GHash.IO
6: 302543-302548 GHash.IO
6: 301403-301408 GHash.IO
6: 301356-301361 GHash.IO
6: 294369-294374 GHash.IO
6: 290653-290658 GHash.IO
6: 286954-286959 Eligius
6: 286150-286155 GHash.IO
6: 281134-281139 GHash.IO
6: 278970-278975 GHash.IO
6: 278310-278315 GHash.IO
6: 276090-276095 GHash.IO
6: 273238-273243 GHash.IO
6: 261362-261367 GHash.IO
6: 260899-260904 50BTC
6: 224466-224471 OzCoin
5: 710573-710577 ViaBTC
5: 704378-704382 F2Pool
5: 704051-704055 AntPool
5: 697769-697773 AntPool
5: 686618-686622 Poolin
5: 674320-674324 F2Pool
5: 671680-671684 F2Pool
5: 664892-664896 Binance
5: 662149-662153 F2Pool
5: 655986-655990 F2Pool
5: 645666-645670 F2Pool
5: 634068-634072 F2Pool
5: 624578-624582 F2Pool
5: 621569-621573 F2Pool
5: 617204-617208 Poolin
5: 613750-613754 BTC.com
5: 612276-612280 F2Pool
5: 611449-611453 F2Pool
5: 604445-604449 BTC.com
5: 601322-601326 F2Pool
5: 597549-597553 F2Pool
5: 588024-588028 BTC.com
5: 587176-587180 BTC.com
5: 585644-585648 BTC.com
5: 583194-583198 BTC.com
5: 565462-565466 F2Pool
5: 564965-564969 AntPool
5: 553993-553997 SlushPool
5: 545505-545509 BTC.com
5: 545270-545274 F2Pool
5: 541302-541306 BTC.com
5: 540394-540398 SlushPool
5: 536337-536341 AntPool
5: 535142-535146 BTC.com
5: 529863-529867 F2Pool
5: 529572-529576 BTC.com
5: 529520-529524 BTC.com
5: 527215-527219 BTC.com
5: 518347-518351 BTC.com
5: 515563-515567 BTC.TOP
5: 512686-512690 BTC.com
5: 512323-512327 BTC.com
5: 510842-510846 BTC.com
5: 510656-510660 BTC.com
5: 510461-510465 BTC.com
5: 509274-509278 BTC.com
5: 507117-507121 BTC.com
5: 503611-503615 BTC.com
5: 502337-502341 AntPool
5: 499301-499305 AntPool
5: 498580-498584 SlushPool
5: 498304-498308 BTC.com
5: 497630-497634 BTC.com
5: 494866-494870 ViaBTC
5: 489575-489579 AntPool
5: 476752-476756 AntPool
5: 476159-476163 AntPool
5: 473231-473235 BTC.TOP
5: 468672-468676 BTC.TOP
5: 463832-463836 F2Pool
5: 450171-450175 AntPool
5: 448745-448749 AntPool
5: 448564-448568 AntPool
5: 445890-445894 AntPool
5: 445530-445534 AntPool
5: 444662-444666 AntPool
5: 444318-444322 AntPool
5: 440323-440327 AntPool
5: 437032-437036 F2Pool
5: 436685-436689 BW.COM
5: 428491-428495 BW.COM
5: 425865-425869 F2Pool
5: 423331-423335 F2Pool
5: 421067-421071 AntPool
5: 418741-418745 AntPool
5: 418664-418668 F2Pool
5: 418510-418514 F2Pool
5: 417266-417270 F2Pool
5: 416487-416491 F2Pool
5: 415872-415876 AntPool
5: 415151-415155 F2Pool
5: 414825-414829 F2Pool
5: 413884-413888 F2Pool
5: 412838-412842 F2Pool
5: 412178-412182 AntPool
5: 412056-412060 AntPool
5: 411718-411722 F2Pool
5: 411194-411198 F2Pool
5: 410922-410926 AntPool
5: 409897-409901 AntPool
5: 409635-409639 F2Pool
5: 409278-409282 AntPool
5: 408624-408628 AntPool
5: 408308-408312 F2Pool
5: 407627-407631 F2Pool
5: 407206-407210 AntPool
5: 407000-407004 AntPool
5: 406547-406551 AntPool
5: 405426-405430 AntPool
5: 405209-405213 F2Pool
5: 404133-404137 AntPool
5: 403183-403187 AntPool
5: 402677-402681 F2Pool
5: 402625-402629 AntPool
5: 402481-402485 AntPool
5: 401754-401758 F2Pool
5: 400218-400222 AntPool
5: 398530-398534 AntPool
5: 393485-393489 AntPool
5: 393435-393439 AntPool
5: 393102-393106 AntPool
5: 392764-392768 F2Pool
5: 391689-391693 F2Pool
5: 387574-387578 AntPool
5: 386776-386780 F2Pool
5: 386454-386458 F2Pool
5: 385662-385666 F2Pool
5: 384532-384536 F2Pool
5: 382076-382080 BitFury
5: 381855-381859 F2Pool
5: 381439-381443 F2Pool
5: 379132-379136 F2Pool
5: 375885-375889 BitFury
5: 374286-374290 F2Pool
5: 371745-371749 F2Pool
5: 370875-370879 BitFury
5: 369435-369439 F2Pool
5: 367246-367250 AntPool
5: 362535-362539 F2Pool
5: 361702-361706 F2Pool
5: 359438-359442 AntPool
5: 359179-359183 AntPool
5: 357438-357442 F2Pool
5: 352616-352620 F2Pool
5: 350260-350264 BW.COM
5: 350160-350164 F2Pool
5: 350088-350092 F2Pool
5: 348635-348639 F2Pool
5: 338127-338131 F2Pool
5: 336817-336821 F2Pool
5: 336012-336016 F2Pool
5: 333753-333757 F2Pool
5: 333727-333731 F2Pool
5: 332608-332612 F2Pool
5: 331608-331612 F2Pool
5: 330971-330975 F2Pool
5: 329689-329693 F2Pool
5: 328608-328612 F2Pool
5: 328246-328250 GHash.IO
5: 328118-328122 F2Pool
5: 327687-327691 F2Pool
5: 325682-325686 F2Pool
5: 322346-322350 GHash.IO
5: 321006-321010 GHash.IO
5: 320350-320354 F2Pool
5: 317892-317896 F2Pool
5: 316501-316505 GHash.IO
5: 314391-314395 GHash.IO
5: 312959-312963 GHash.IO
5: 312188-312192 GHash.IO
5: 312055-312059 GHash.IO
5: 311481-311485 F2Pool
5: 311393-311397 GHash.IO
5: 311286-311290 GHash.IO
5: 309189-309193 F2Pool
5: 309036-309040 GHash.IO
5: 307798-307802 GHash.IO
5: 307710-307714 GHash.IO
5: 307517-307521 GHash.IO
5: 307121-307125 GHash.IO
5: 307039-307043 GHash.IO
5: 306964-306968 GHash.IO
5: 306457-306461 GHash.IO
5: 306125-306129 GHash.IO
5: 305854-305858 GHash.IO
5: 305420-305424 GHash.IO
5: 305195-305199 GHash.IO
5: 304654-304658 GHash.IO
5: 304587-304591 GHash.IO
5: 304422-304426 GHash.IO
5: 304333-304337 GHash.IO
5: 304194-304198 GHash.IO
5: 304179-304183 GHash.IO
5: 303993-303997 GHash.IO
5: 302970-302974 GHash.IO
5: 302476-302480 GHash.IO
5: 302322-302326 GHash.IO
5: 302036-302040 GHash.IO
5: 302030-302034 GHash.IO
5: 301935-301939 GHash.IO
5: 301681-301685 GHash.IO
5: 299784-299788 GHash.IO
5: 299338-299342 GHash.IO
5: 296778-296782 GHash.IO
5: 296221-296225 GHash.IO
5: 292121-292125 GHash.IO
5: 291994-291998 GHash.IO
5: 290890-290894 GHash.IO
5: 290616-290620 GHash.IO
5: 289528-289532 GHash.IO
5: 289210-289214 GHash.IO
5: 288676-288680 GHash.IO
5: 288574-288578 GHash.IO
5: 288297-288301 GHash.IO
5: 287703-287707 GHash.IO
5: 287459-287463 GHash.IO
5: 286364-286368 GHash.IO
5: 285322-285326 GHash.IO
5: 285191-285195 GHash.IO
5: 285041-285045 GHash.IO
5: 283504-283508 GHash.IO
5: 282057-282061 GHash.IO
5: 280799-280803 GHash.IO
5: 280030-280034 GHash.IO
5: 278163-278167 GHash.IO
5: 276765-276769 GHash.IO
5: 276470-276474 GHash.IO
5: 275408-275412 GHash.IO
5: 274956-274960 GHash.IO
5: 274011-274015 GHash.IO
5: 272628-272632 GHash.IO
5: 272535-272539 GHash.IO
5: 270094-270098 GHash.IO
5: 268471-268475 GHash.IO
5: 267368-267372 GHash.IO
5: 266521-266525 GHash.IO
5: 266257-266261 GHash.IO
5: 264471-264475 GHash.IO
5: 248046-248050 ASICMiner
5: 245294-245298 50BTC
5: 243162-243166 50BTC
5: 241562-241566 50BTC
5: 235774-235778 50BTC
5: 204488-204492 SlushPool
4: 714846-714849 ViaBTC
4: 714711-714714 F2Pool
4: 713378-713381 F2Pool
4: 713042-713045 AntPool
4: 712262-712265 F2Pool
4: 712242-712245 Binance
4: 712237-712240 F2Pool
4: 711304-711307 AntPool
4: 711138-711141 AntPool
4: 709809-709812 AntPool
4: 709256-709259 F2Pool
4: 709003-709006 F2Pool
4: 708635-708638 ViaBTC
4: 707987-707990 F2Pool
4: 707528-707531 AntPool
4: 707190-707193 F2Pool
4: 706859-706862 AntPool
4: 706740-706743 AntPool
4: 706178-706181 AntPool
4: 706123-706126 F2Pool
4: 704484-704487 AntPool
4: 704394-704397 F2Pool
4: 704085-704088 F2Pool
4: 703795-703798 F2Pool
4: 703149-703152 AntPool
4: 702872-702875 Poolin
4: 701708-701711 SlushPool
4: 701662-701665 F2Pool
4: 701346-701349 F2Pool
4: 701335-701338 F2Pool
4: 700200-700203 Poolin
4: 699776-699779 AntPool
4: 698972-698975 AntPool
4: 697658-697661 AntPool
4: 697519-697522 AntPool
4: 697502-697505 AntPool
4: 697246-697249 ViaBTC
4: 697215-697218 AntPool
4: 695474-695477 ViaBTC
4: 694426-694429 AntPool
4: 694221-694224 AntPool
4: 692884-692887 Binance
4: 690030-690033 AntPool
4: 689403-689406 Binance
4: 687914-687917 F2Pool
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4: 685552-685555 F2Pool
4: 682211-682214 AntPool
4: 681756-681759 AntPool
4: 681677-681680 F2Pool
4: 681388-681391 F2Pool
4: 681382-681385 F2Pool
4: 681074-681077 Huobi
4: 680599-680602 F2Pool
4: 680170-680173 ViaBTC
4: 679851-679854 BTC.com
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4: 679229-679232 ViaBTC
4: 679130-679133 ViaBTC
4: 679104-679107 F2Pool
4: 678327-678330 F2Pool
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4: 677855-677858 Poolin
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4: 665654-665657 F2Pool
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4: 664924-664927 Binance
4: 664031-664034 F2Pool
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4: 655607-655610 Poolin
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4: 654358-654361 Poolin
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4: 649961-649964 AntPool
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4: 647530-647533 F2Pool
4: 646760-646763 F2Pool
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4: 643891-643894 Poolin
4: 640613-640616 F2Pool
4: 640252-640255 Poolin
4: 638668-638671 AntPool
4: 638185-638188 BTC.com
4: 638025-638028 F2Pool
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4: 634958-634961 BTC.com
4: 634565-634568 F2Pool
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4: 632870-632873 BTC.com
4: 632451-632454 F2Pool
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4: 625430-625433 BTC.com
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4: 620201-620204 Poolin
4: 618995-618998 AntPool
4: 618976-618979 F2Pool
4: 617780-617783 Poolin
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4: 608287-608290 BTC.com
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4: 305789-305792 GHash.IO
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4: 305650-305653 GHash.IO
4: 305625-305628 GHash.IO
4: 305407-305410 GHash.IO
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4: 304998-305001 GHash.IO
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4: 302710-302713 GHash.IO
4: 302674-302677 GHash.IO
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4: 301839-301842 GHash.IO
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~snip~
On the contrary, there is a huge risk to DannyHamilton from this step:
So the pool owner himself can do this with less risk. Now, there are no risks to DannyHamilton at all.
On the contrary, there is a huge risk to DannyHamilton from this step:- DannyHamilton provides pooya87 Transaction_B and asks pooya87 to include it in the pool's next block AND let him know when the mining pool has solved the block, but NOT to broadcast the solved block to the network. Instead, he tells pooya87 to have the pool immediately start working on a second block on top of the solved block, and broadcast both blocks together once the second block is solved.
You said is possible for a pool operator to coordinate with a scammer to include the scammer's transaction in their block.
If transaction is verified by a node operator it will stay in the operator's mempool until a miner will add it to a block.
The only scenario that could work is this:If transaction is verified by a node operator it will stay in the operator's mempool until a miner will add it to a block.
The scammer creates tx1 and tx2 that are spending the same exact UTXOs (double spend) but have different outputs. The scammer sends tx1 to the bitcoin network so it propagates among all nodes and sends tx2 to the participating pool so only that pool sees the double spend and nobody else.
So at this point, everyone's mempool has tx1 so the person receiving the funds in tx1 sees the good propagation and lack of double spend and accepts the unconfirmed transaction and makes the trade. Then the first block found by that pool contains tx2 and invalidates tx1, effectively ripping off the receiver.
Obviously, this is solved if the receiver waits for confirmation.
That's one example. If we want to take a look at a more extreme example, imagine the following:
uchegod-21 will play the part of the naive scam victim.
DannyHamilton will play the part of the scammer.
pooya87 will play the part of a mining pool operator willing to collude in a scam.
- DannyHamilton agrees to purchase a VERY valuable NFT from uchegod-21 for 18 BTC.
- uchegod-21 agrees to provide the NFT to DannyHamilton after he sees 1 confirmation on the Bitcoin blockchain because he heard that transactions are permanent once they are confirmed.
- DannyHamilton notices that the mining pool operated by pooya87 has a LOT of hashpower and that it OFTEN solves 2 or more consecutive blocks
- DannyHamilton contacts pooya87 and tells him that if the pool succeeds in assisting, then he'll pay pooya87 10 BTC
- pooya87 agrees to attempt to help
- DannyHamilton creates 2 transactions. Transaction_A that pays uchegod-21 18 BTC, Transaction_B that spends the exact same bitcoins but pays pooya87 10 BTC, and the remaning 8 BTC are sent to a second address that DannyHamilton controls.
- DannyHamilton provides pooya87 Transaction_B and asks pooya87 to include it in the pool's next block AND let him know when the mining pool has solved the block, but NOT to broadcast the solved block to the network. Instead, he tells pooya87 to have the pool immediately start working on a second block on top of the solved block, and broadcast both blocks together once the second block is solved.
- As soon as DannyHamilton hears that pooya87's pool has secretly solved the first block (Secret_Block_1), he broadcasts Transaction_A paying the 18 BTC to uchegod-21. (This block is at block height x)
- At some time after that some other miner solves and broadcasts a block (Public_Block_1) that includes this Transaction_A and uchegod-21 sees a confirmation. Transaction_A is in the blockchain. (This block is also at block height x)
- uchegod-21 immediately sends the NFT to DannyHamilton
- A short while later, pooya87's pool solves a second block (Secret_Block_2) on top of the secret block (Secret_Block_1) that contains Transaction_B (This block is at block height x+1)
- pooya87 broadcasts BOTH of the blocks (Secret_Block_1 and Secret_Block_2) that his pool has solved.
- The entire network sees that this is a longer chain (Their current chain that includes Public_Block_1 is only x blocks long, whereas this new chain that includes BOTH Secret_Block_1 and Secret_Block_2 is x+1 blocks long)
- The entire network (including the wallet that uchegod-21 is using) abandons Public_Block_1 and replaces it in their own copies of the blockchain with Secret_Block_1 AND Secret_Block_2.
- Suddenly uchegod-21 no longer has the 18 BTC. The transaction paying him those bitcoins doesn't exist.
- Initially the nodes all consider adding Transaction_A back into their mempool to be confirmed later (since it was in the block that was replaced and is not in the replacement blocks). However, when they attempt to validate Transaction_A before putting it back in their mempool, they see that those bitcoins are already spent in their blockchain (in Transaction_B). Therefore, they reject Transaction_A entirely as an invalid transaction.
- DannyHamilton quickly finds a buyer for the NFT for 16 BTC, and completes the transaction before uchegod-21 can make it publicly known to the world that he's been scammed.
- The participants of pooya87's pool all go paid their normal expected payouts, and don't even realize that they participated in the scam.
- pooya87 himself is 10 BTC richer.
- DannyHamilton is 6 BTC richer (acquired an NFT for free, sold it for 16 BTC, paid 10 BTC of that to pooya87).
- uchegod-21 lost a very valuable NFT, and in exchange, he received a very important life lesson about needing multiple confirmations on very high-value transactions.
Now, there are no risks to DannyHamilton at all. Worst case, if pooya87's pool fails to find that second block before the public blockchain adds a second block then DannyHamilton paid 18 BTC for an NFT worth 18 BTC. DannyHamilton gets a fair deal and so does uchgod-21 in that situation.
pooya87 did take on some risk in this situation though, which is why DannyHamilton needed to offer pooya87 the majority of the profits in order to convince pooya87 to cooperate. If pooya87's pool couldn't solve that second block fast enough, then he wouldn't get the 10 BTC payment from DannyHamilton (remember DannyHamilton agreed to pay pooya87 "if the pool succeeds in assisting"). If pooya87's pool doesn't solve that second block fast enough, then pooya87 will be sitting on a secret block (Secret_Block_1) that is invalid. He therefore won't ever get paid the usual 6.25 BTC (at today's block subsidy) for having solved that block. Normally, he wouldn't get to keep most of that 6.25 anyhow (since he'd have to pay the pool participants for their shares in mining that block). Now, if he's set this all up carefully enough, then perhaps his pool participants won't know about Secret_Block_1, and therefore they won't expect to be paid for solving it. In that case, pooya87 only loses out on the small percentage of that block reward that he would normally get to keep as a pool operator. However, if he's paying his participants for every share they submit, then he's going to owe his participants nearly 6.25 BTC of his own money to keep them from wondering why their revenue dropped suddenly for a few blocks.
This exact same scam can be pulled off for 2 blocks (2 confirmations) or 3 blocks (3 confirmations) or more, but the risk to the pool operator grows with every additional block. First, the chances that they'll actually be able to stay ahead of the rest of the network long enough to succeed becomes much much smaller with each additional block needed. So their chances of successfully accomplishing the attack approaches 0% very quickly. Second, the amount that the pool fails to earn from the blocks that they don't broadcast increases by 6.25 BTC (at today's block subsidy level) for every additional block. So, it becomes a more expensive attack with a smaller chance of succeeding.
This is why a lot of services are willing to accept transactions after 3 blocks. At that point, any cooperating pool is risking 18.75 BTC (over $800,000 at today's exchange rate), and trying to hide this fact from their participants long enough to solve 3 blocks in a row without anyone noticing. Meanwhile, unless the pool controls nearly half of the entire world's hashpower, the chances that they will solve the next 3 blocks in a row before the rest of the world succesfully solves 3 blocks are very very slim. Now, if you were accepting a transaction valued at 200 BTC or more, then there's enough of a pay-off there that it might be worth for a pool to try. In that case, the transaction recipient might require 4 confirmations (or more). For smaller amounts, 3 confirmations is probably enough.
It's up to the transaction recipient to be aware of the value of the transaction and to make a demand for a reasonable number of confirmations before allowing the transaction sender to receive whatever they are getting in exchange for the bitcoins.
Alternately, the transaction recipient can make sure that they have some other method of enforcing payment. If I have a strong personal relationship with the transaction sender, and I know with relative certainty that I'll be able to find them and force them to pay, then I can accept fewer confirmations (perhaps even 0 confirmations). If I am holding as collateral something of value that belongs to the transaction sender, then I can perhaps accept less (even zero) confirmations with the knowledge that I can simply refuse to release the collateral. These are but a few examples where it may make sense to accept few or zero confirmations. Perhaps you can think of others. Essentially, any situation where you might be willing to accept a paper check written against a bank account is a situation where you might also be willing to accept a bitcoin transaction with zero confirmations. A check might be written against an account with insufficient funds. A Bitcoin transaction with zero confirmations might not ever confirm, and may become invalid before it can confirm.
Every node maintains it's own mempool. The transactions in one node's mempool will generally be pretty similar to the transactions in another node's mempool simply because they've both received the same transactions relayed throughout the entire network, and the same blocks. However, there is no guarantee that any one node has exactly the same list of transactions in their mempool as any other. One node may not have heard about a transaction that another node did, or one node may have already dropped a transaction from it's mempool that another node has not.
And as a node operator, I could configure my node not to accept transactions with low transaction fees. For example, anything below 3 sat/vByte won't be included in my mempool. Another node might not include transactions below 5 sat/vByte. The reasons why they might want to do that aren't important, but it is possible. With such a difference in the configurations, nodes A, B, and C can't possible have the same unconfirmed transactions in their mempools because Node A accepts a minimum fee of 1 sat/vByte, Node B requires 3 sat/vByte, and Node C accepts nothing below 5 sat/vByte. 
You said is possible for a pool operator to coordinate with a scammer to include the scammer's transaction in their block.
If transaction is verified by a node operator it will stay in the operator's mempool until a miner will add it to a block.
The only scenario that could work is this:If transaction is verified by a node operator it will stay in the operator's mempool until a miner will add it to a block.
The scammer creates tx1 and tx2 that are spending the same exact UTXOs (double spend) but have different outputs. The scammer sends tx1 to the bitcoin network so it propagates among all nodes and sends tx2 to the participating pool so only that pool sees the double spend and nobody else.
So at this point, everyone's mempool has tx1 so the person receiving the funds in tx1 sees the good propagation and lack of double spend and accepts the unconfirmed transaction and makes the trade. Then the first block found by that pool contains tx2 and invalidates tx1, effectively ripping off the receiver.
Obviously this is solved if the receiver waits for confirmation.
Quote
A miner can chose a transaction to confirm.
Miners connect to a mining pool that is running its own node and can decide which transactions to mine. You'll see people write about "the mempool" as if there is a single mempool somewhere that everyone has access to and which represents the current list of all unconfirmed transactions. This is not how it actually works. Every node maintains it's own mempool.
Quote
Therefore, they may choose a transaction that nobody else has in their own mempool, and they may not choose a transaction that nearly everybody else does have in their own mempool.
Quote
It's even possible that a pool operator might coordinate with a scammer to include the scammer's transaction in their block in exchange for a share of the scammer's profits (or the pool operator might even BE a scammer themselves).
Thank you for still replying in this thread. I have learn many things. I quote some of your statement for learning.You said is possible for a pool operator to coordinate with a scammer to include the scammer's transaction in their block.
If transaction is verified by a node operator it will stay in the operator's mempool until a miner will add it to a block.
A miner can chose a transaction to confirm. Does a node operator has the opportunity to chose the transaction to stay in his mempool. If yes, scammer can manipulate. But if no, please explain a little how the scammer and pool operator coordination will work.
Since you're here in the "Technical" Support section of the forum asking questions of a somewhat technical nature, here's some additional information that I don't see in this thread that might be helpful to know:
You'll see people write about "the mempool" as if there is a single mempool somewhere that everyone has access to and which represents the current list of all unconfirmed transactions. This is not how it actually works. Every node maintains it's own mempool. The transactions in one node's mempool will generally be pretty similar to the transactions in another node's mempool simply because they've both received the same transactions relayed throughout the entire network, and the same blocks. However, there is no guarantee that any one node has exactly the same list of transactions in their mempool as any other. One node may not have heard about a transaction that another node did, or one node may have already dropped a transaction from it's mempool that another node has not. While it is commonly stated that transactions will hang around in a mempool for 2 weeks, that is not a requirement of the system. Anyone can modify or configure their software to increase or decrease the amount of time they are willing to hold transactions in their own mempool.
You'll also see people write that miners choose transactions from the mempool when building the blocks that they mine. As you can perhaps deduce from my previous paragraph, mining pools choose transactions from their own mempool running on their own node. Therefore, they may choose a transaction that nobody else has in their own mempool, and they may not choose a transaction that nearly everybody else does have in their own mempool.
Additionally, most mining pools are trying to generate a profit, so they generally will choose the transactions from their mempool that pay the highest fee per vByte. However, they are not required to use that criteria when choosing transactions. They can use any criteria they want. As such, many pools won't include non-standard transactions (even if they include a high transction fee per vByte). Some pools may choose to be altruistic and helpful to the community overall and as such may choose to include a limited number of very low fee transcation in each of their blocks (a bit like a type of charity). Some pools may allow the mining participants to submit a limited number of low fee or even free transactions for a block. Some pools may provide an alternative means for people to pay the pool directly in exchange for a promise that a specified low fee transaction will be included in the next block that the pool successfully mines. It's even possible that a pool operator might coordinate with a scammer to include the scammer's transaction in their block in exchange for a share of the scammer's profits (or the pool operator might even BE a scammer themselves).
You'll see people write about "the mempool" as if there is a single mempool somewhere that everyone has access to and which represents the current list of all unconfirmed transactions. This is not how it actually works. Every node maintains it's own mempool. The transactions in one node's mempool will generally be pretty similar to the transactions in another node's mempool simply because they've both received the same transactions relayed throughout the entire network, and the same blocks. However, there is no guarantee that any one node has exactly the same list of transactions in their mempool as any other. One node may not have heard about a transaction that another node did, or one node may have already dropped a transaction from it's mempool that another node has not. While it is commonly stated that transactions will hang around in a mempool for 2 weeks, that is not a requirement of the system. Anyone can modify or configure their software to increase or decrease the amount of time they are willing to hold transactions in their own mempool.
You'll also see people write that miners choose transactions from the mempool when building the blocks that they mine. As you can perhaps deduce from my previous paragraph, mining pools choose transactions from their own mempool running on their own node. Therefore, they may choose a transaction that nobody else has in their own mempool, and they may not choose a transaction that nearly everybody else does have in their own mempool.
Additionally, most mining pools are trying to generate a profit, so they generally will choose the transactions from their mempool that pay the highest fee per vByte. However, they are not required to use that criteria when choosing transactions. They can use any criteria they want. As such, many pools won't include non-standard transactions (even if they include a high transction fee per vByte). Some pools may choose to be altruistic and helpful to the community overall and as such may choose to include a limited number of very low fee transcation in each of their blocks (a bit like a type of charity). Some pools may allow the mining participants to submit a limited number of low fee or even free transactions for a block. Some pools may provide an alternative means for people to pay the pool directly in exchange for a promise that a specified low fee transaction will be included in the next block that the pool successfully mines. It's even possible that a pool operator might coordinate with a scammer to include the scammer's transaction in their block in exchange for a share of the scammer's profits (or the pool operator might even BE a scammer themselves).
If the mempool full or congested and miners start to add the transaction with high transaction fee. What will happens to the transaction with very low transaction fees if the ones with high transaction keep coming into the mempool after each one get confirm.
Will the ones with low fee need to wait until anytime or anyday the mempool will become empty. What of If the mempool stay very long without bin empty.
You weren't using Bitcoin in Dec 2017/Jan 2018 were you? Or indeed, for the first 4-5 months of this year? Will the ones with low fee need to wait until anytime or anyday the mempool will become empty. What of If the mempool stay very long without bin empty.
If the mempool full or congested and miners start to add the transaction with high transaction fee. What will happens to the transaction with very low transaction fees if the ones with high transaction keep coming into the mempool after each one get confirm.
Will the ones with low fee need to wait until anytime or anyday the mempool will become empty. What of If the mempool stay very long without bin empty.
You weren't using Bitcoin in Dec 2017/Jan 2018 were you? Or indeed, for the first 4-5 months of this year? Will the ones with low fee need to wait until anytime or anyday the mempool will become empty. What of If the mempool stay very long without bin empty.
It would seem not:
Date Registered: 2021-09-01, 11:17:57
Well, to answer your question, this graph shows the size of the mempool... basically, the amount of unconfirmed transactions... remembering that as a rough guide, 1 meg = 1 block worth of unconfirmed transactions.
source: https://www.blockchain.com/charts/mempool-size
You can see that the mempool at some points had in excess of 80 blocks worth of transactions for months on end.
So, basically, confirmation times for low fee transactions will stretch into days/weeks rather than minutes/hours. There are literally hundreds (if not thousands) of threads on this forum in the "Beginners & Help" section (and littered in the Tech Support section) about "stuck transactions": https://www.google.com/search?q=site%3Abitcointalk.org+stuck+transaction
In addition to pooya's reply above:
The limit on block size is not 1 MB anymore, but rather 4,000,000 weight units, which is the same as 1,000,000 virtual bytes or vbytes. Segwit transactions have a similar amount of raw data to legacy transactions (often slightly more in fact), but a smaller weight and a smaller vbyte footprint because of the way that data is counted.
It is fairly uncommon for the mempool to be so full that transactions start dropping out the bottom, or for it to take so long to confirm that they are dropped after two weeks. Additionally, you can use methods such as CPFP or transaction accelerators to boost your unconfirmed transaction and get it confirmed sooner.
The limit on block size is not 1 MB anymore, but rather 4,000,000 weight units, which is the same as 1,000,000 virtual bytes or vbytes. Segwit transactions have a similar amount of raw data to legacy transactions (often slightly more in fact), but a smaller weight and a smaller vbyte footprint because of the way that data is counted.
It is fairly uncommon for the mempool to be so full that transactions start dropping out the bottom, or for it to take so long to confirm that they are dropped after two weeks. Additionally, you can use methods such as CPFP or transaction accelerators to boost your unconfirmed transaction and get it confirmed sooner.
This show why sigwit transaction is faster because the witness is separate from the 1mb block of transaction.
SegWit transactions are not faster or slower, they have smaller weight compared to similar legacy transactions which means you end up paying lower fee in comparison.The witness is also not separate, it is part of the transaction and a part of each block in the maximum 4 MB weight.
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What will happens to the transaction with very low transaction fees if the ones with high transaction keep coming into the mempool after each one get confirm.
They remain in that nodes mempool until it is their turn to be confirmed or until the node drops it after a predefined period (default is 2 weeks) or they become invalid (like in case of double spending through RBF).Quote
and the data size of your transaction.statement 3
The size or weight of the transaction depends on the number of inputs in your transaction, the number of outputs in your transaction, the type of addresses you are sending to and from, and the exact script requirements (such as a standard transaction, a multi-sig transaction, etc.) This is what is meant by the data size. The actual amount of bitcoin contained within that data is largely irrelevant.This show why sigwit transaction is
I have
If the mempool full or congested and miners start to add the transaction with high transaction fee. What will happens to the transaction with very low transaction fees if the ones with high transaction keep coming into the mempool after each one get confirm.
Will the ones with low fee need to wait until anytime or anyday the mempool will become empty. What of If the mempool stay very long without bin empty.
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