Topic: What is going on, who is selling at these prices? (Read 2037 times)

Well the fact is that the Chinese people are dumping because there are mostly coming some regulations what is bad for them.

Thank you for that, I am learning about BTC pricing

If Bitcoin's own value doesn't change, its price will depend mechanistically (like in a knee-jerk reaction) on the USD/CNY exchange rate, since Bitcoin is largely traded for these two currencies (and consequently priced in). So, if the dollar goes up against the Yuan, the Bitcoin price in dollars will evidently go down. But given that Bitcoin volatility by far exceeds the changes in the USD/CNY exchange rates (let alone changes in the USDX index), Bitcoin price is determined more by market manipulation than the value of the US dollar itself (which was your point), and that could play any way...

Regarding 600 dollars per bitcoin, this is a possibility but surely not due to dollar appreciation in the range of only a few percentages

Indeed not smart at all, they can better wait on a better price that is coming without any doubts, that is also why they are just so stupid, just have patience people.

Yeah, correlations have been all messed up since the beginning of the year, well, since the election, but really bad since the New Year. The positive oil/USD/ES correlation just broke over the last two days, started on the 3rd when markets opened for the year.  I was not trying to imply that the two were 100% correlated, and I am sorry if that is what you came to believe.  I am not sure what you mean by mechanistic correlation, would that mean current sentiment is fundamentally always right implying efficient market theory?  Anyway, I am not saying that under 600 is def going to happen either, but it is important to keep in mind that it is a possibility.  I totally agree that prices are manipulated (which does not jive with efficient market theory) and that is something that we all have to deal with on a daily basis. As far as the USD I think that it could get much higher before it falls making USD the more sought after currency and credit risk than others during the run.  As far as the big picture is concerned I think that the USD will fall pretty far and given the state of other nations and the fact that it is the world reserve currency I could see BTC going much higher.  Mostly because it is not acknowledged as as much of a risk as say gold by the major parties at the moment.  Thank you for your input! This is a great conversation    

I don't think this is very likely

The price of Bitcoin doesn't depend much on the value of the US dollar (I mean beside simply mechanistic correlation). It mostly depends on the price manipulation and that could work either way, i.e. if the manipulators see that they can safely grab traders' money, then the Bitcoin price will rise simultaneously with the dollar (and vice versa). Otherwise, you will have difficulty explaining the recent Bitcoin rally while the USDX had been on the rise too

The one that sell, is the one that afraid of the price will going lower again, and the one that desperately need fiat to fulfill their needs, and specially in this newest case where china being search, is because they need to exchange the coin before the government declare whether bitcoin is going to be banned or not, if bitcoin being banned they will have difficulty to cash out

Should the DX rally to 106, BTC could easily fall to unter the $600 mark.  It is a very thin trade and therefore prices are subject to extreme movement, that said, it could hit $3K this year as well. To be perfectly honest the Chinese have better ways to get their money out of China than BTC at this point, esp with the new capital controls placed the last year.  One thing that is very important to remember in trading is that nothing is for sure. Always set stops and follow your rules.  I have found this to be relevant in all types of transactions, mostly the hard way.

Prices never move in a straight line, and if people are right and the majority of BTC IS in fact own by the Chinese, all you have to do is look at how their stock market moves and you will understand the exhaustive nature of their trading practices.  When it comes to a rally and a crash, they sure know how to do it right.  Here is the shanghai index, check out copper, hot rolled steel, the HSE, its all there in the charts.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C2DIbFKW8AAzWD1.jpg:large  

  

I wouldn't call these people stupid

Most wannabe traders are not stupid, they are simply extremely naive in this field. They may have read it somewhere that most traders and their money are just cannon fodder for market makers, that 90% of traders are losing over long enough time frame, but they either don't take this info seriously as they should or just think themselves smarter than the rest of the pack. Their biggest mistake is that they should be as smart as (or even smarter than) market makers since just being smart or smarter than their fellow traders obviously won't suffice

Not impatient. Either people extremely smart, or extremely stupid. If I had to take a guess, I would say that more than half would be stupid, and are small-minded lemmings who sell when the price drops.

Yes you are right I think Bitcoin holders were ready for a dump so the price is continuously falling from ATH but the price will not fall less than $600 and and after few months Bitcoin will start to raise again in the sky and each time Bitcoin raise in the sky it goes to new height than  previous ATH so hold your horses and keep your Bitcoin hand because in long run there will be profit only.

It was just a matter of time

As you correctly noted, a small announcement triggered an avalanche of panic sell-offs. But if it hadn't been this announcement, there would have been another such triggering event setting off massive correction. Simply because most people felt that the price was rising too fast and that wouldn't last for long. In a sense, the correction (or dump) had already been scheduled

The same people who sell all the way to 800. There is many people, scared Chinamen miners, scared chinaman, scared investors who invested at the top, people taking profits, longs being called. For someone who has been here since 2012 you don't seem to know much.

We have to accept the truth that there are many people who do not believe in Bitcoin and many others still consider Bitcoin as a type of investment. Therefore, when Bitcoin prices are high enough, they will sell bitcoin so as to get some profit. This makes the Bitcoin prices drop and cause other people feel nervous about holding Bitcoin. Then, most of the nervous people will sell their Bitcoin because they scare that they could lose the profit

The incident that has triggered the panic selling started at China when the central bank of China made an announcement to bitcoin holders in China to be careful in investing in bitcoin due to its volatile nature. Though the announcement was simple but the impact was great, Chines bitcoin holders who are newbie to the business sold their bitcoins that has instantly put down the price of bitcoin from 1000$ down to 900$. That event was not the end after that drop in price bitcoin holders around the world panicked and also sold their bitcoins and that has turned bitcoins price down to 700$.

After the panic halted, bitcoins price has started to increase slowly again and hope it will hit back to 1000$ by the end of January.

Every user doesn't have the same need and requirements. Everyone plan to sell at the increased price which is not at all possible. Only the person making closer predictions will sell at the right time. The same has happened now, though they knew that the price moves up, the need makes them sell even at lower prices.

Obviously, there are different types of people involved in Bitcoin trading

Most likely, you refer to day traders who are scalping small profits, they will always be selling and buying at whatever price. Apart from them, there are arbitrageurs who may be seeking for arbitrage opportunities with Bitcoin at different exchanges or with different currencies at the same exchange (or with different currencies at different exchanges). Other than that, have you ever asked yourself who are all those people that were buying when the price went above 1,000 dollars?

People will follow the market trend that's why selling.
lucky not a big panic. 

also quite surprise for me the action of china even before that i think the price up too fast to 1k and want to selling .

They are selling because they think price will continue to go down and you can't blame them, it's just human nature to panic when they see that their investment is starting to loose its value so better sell now than sell later at a more low price specially this week when there is a big drop of BTC rate in a span of hours. If they don't sell it right away, they might be selling their BTC way below their desired price.

Users just selling it because they are panicking. Greater percent of coins are being owned by the Chinese people. The bitcoin inspection by the Chinese central bank caused them to panic and now they are selling them causing the price to drop, while others seeing this drop are also doing the same.