Topic: What is more Likely to happen the next couple of months ? (Read 2000 times)

I'm more inclined to think that it'll be more like the second option. It just seems that way to me.

One of the reasons I feel this way is after doing a quick second level analytic look, we're still in the point where higher volume days are usually days with significant declines (i.e. days with over 3 times the average volatility and "drop" of the previous week). There may be a bubble brewing soon, but one of the leading indicators I'm looking for before I'm inclined to think we'll experience another breakout is a change in this dynamic.

I said none of those because I think somewhere in between, but for now closer to number 2.

Here's my course prediction chart: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.8334672

So you are assuming that Usa and Europe people have all btcs? Lol this is ridiculous.. one thing is that almost all the people have heard about bitcoin and other is that they are participating actively in the market.. most of them dont own any bitcoin and that can change with some triggers.

All it takes is ebay to get in the game for once, everyone will be aware of the "pay with bitcoin" option and it will explode. This is personally for me the idea of how bitcoin will really take off, all kind of tv news ill ensue.

Voted option 3, ment for number 2.. although both work, cuz I expect a bull trap, then what you drew.

there is nothing perfect out there, but everything depends on your ability to make good calls that can benefit your position, right now cryptos are what I do to put food on the table, I did quit my job mainly for this and I don't care about hdolers or perma-bulls or perma-bears I change my sentiments depending on market signals and as long as I am able to make calls and be confident about them I will still be able to put food on the table for my kids.

Reading topics on this subboard makes a really terrible impression to me. Can you see how maniac a lot members are? Can you see it? Not the smallest part of their brain has place for any downward momentum. If you tell them it could go down only 5,00$ they will call you a stupid bear! If you tell them it could go even lower they are able to kill you! They are only shouting, cheering and being astonished when price does not do what it was supposed to do.

Of course, not all people here, but the majority.

We are playing this maniac now in a very small room, where a few nerds and venture capitalists are in. If bitcoin will proceed his journey, I could imagine that in a couple of years we play this game of maniac at least once globally.

Can you imagine where the price will go if this disease of blindness to one direction will infect the world? Or only a part of it? The game has just started, and of course it could end very quickly.

But if not...and the journey will proceed there will be a never seen spike, that will let see our current growth like a dwarf, quite likely followed by an equal gigantic decline.

Nice summary. The manipulation stories are just that - stories. No way to know for sure. This break down is technical. But I don't know where the bottom is. My guess would be 420-450. So given that I'm often wrong, maybe 400!

I agree with that, let me add a quote from Risto's thread before Risto delete it (he like to do that)



of course I don't agree to "the crypto is over" thing, but think he addressed solid points.

3. drop lover and never recover

Option 3, stay in 400-600 for a month or two more then slowly start accelerating and explode in the autumn. whatever it is, your graph #2 is funny and surely won't happen.

Also I know that most people here don't know the great buy-in price even when they are hit with one on the head, like right now. Waiting for sub-$400 coins would be quite a tedious adventure, and while it might still happen you sure should not blink much or you might miss it.

similar to 2014, with some spike here and there, august is surely bad for a pump, i don't remember, but there was ever a pump in august in the others years?

None of them will happen I think. This is just a small purging of the market due to too many people expecting a bubble for months now and their delusional talk about buying cars, expensive vacations and castles with their massive profits. Fundamentals look really good though but the current exchange infrastructure still sucks too hard, not many people want to send their money to an exchange so there is a general lack of fiat on there and this does not help the price. Merchant adoption doesn't help either, we need something to improve this infrastructure so it's easier for people to buy coins and they don't have to fear losing their money like in the MtGox disaster. Something like an ETF or NASDAQ exchange. Until then the market will stay mostly flat but I do think the current price is pretty cheap so I will pick up some more coins soon. I don't believe we will go lower than 450 though.

yes, I edited the first post to clarify.

I would say a similar pattern, although not with the same timing.

That's how I see it. Even it could go down into the ~300. Of course, bearisher (and bullisher) scenarios are possible, but in my eyes lesser probable. I see it more as a rough orientation, not a prediction.

Edit: oh, I see your first chart is similar ;-)



Well, I will deepen my impression of the current market situation here since this Wall Observer Thread cracks me up.

In the past months we had a lot of of people supposing an accelerated trendline. I could never see this trendline before 2014, where it got quickly broken. The former touches of this non-existing trendline, were carried by older, both (5x) proven and mature trendlines.

The price was driven high by expectation of a soon incoming bubble. This expection was slowly destroyed from 680,00 downwards. After breaking the imaginary accelerated trendline and the hope of an incoming bubble, frustration has taken the place of hope. People started to sell and the stone begun to roll downwards, now building up his own dynamic.

I think the bigger money(institutional buyers etc.) is waiting on lower support levels. First support is given in the ~400, but I don't see that the fall must stop there. I think somewhere between 440-300 the price will be caught up.

All the talk of manipulation conspiracies...to me it does not look more than, simple price had no support at this levels (for now) and a few clever players are making money with delusional hot bullish fever.

The posted scenario is my favorite. But as I said earlier, there are lot more possible ways market could go, even the extremely bearish ones. I see no reason to fulfill such horrible scenario, but one could be simple: overspeculation in the past years.  I don't think so, but who knows.

I have to add that the second scenario was exaggerated, I didn't see give allot of attention to the time stamp at the bottom of the chart and I didn't follow the MACD or AO or MFI in both scenarios, I just went with how did it look in my imagination. so 2nd chart should be: cycle 3-4 months and the bottom would be $200-300

keep going down, bitcoin can only drop from here and might hit $0.00x after the final capitulation

Id say option 2. We need a new market to move in to get the price up again. Existing markets already bought all they are going to. So Africa and SAmerica and rest of Asia need to get on board which wont happen for a while imho (~2 years?)

I think my newbie status does not give me permission to vote. Both are unlikely. Both are not impossible.