Topic: What is safe asset? And If USA dollar weakining what is Next Fiat? - page 4. (Read 968 times)

if the US dollar becomes weaker then what might be used as the global and main currency is the Chinese yuan. why chinese yuan? we know the second strongest country after America is China. China has a hefty economy and also has the most population in the world. so in my opinion if the US dollar collapses it will be replaced by the Chinese yuan. and I think safe assets are assets that have a low risk of loss.

If there is a war threat in the world, gold is the most important investment tool. Gold is a very valuable mine. But there is a more important issue. I think he's being ignored. Yes you can have too much gold so how do you move. The cost of moving Bitcoin from one place to another is very low You can carry a bitcoin worth millions of dollars with a small wallet.

There is no 100% "safe" asset. Nothing in this life is guaranteed, it is just a matter of risk/reward, probabilities, psychology, mental energy, managing your emotions, etc. Gold is just a metal nothing more and has proved itself to NOT be a reliable "hedge" type asset during crisis like in the 2008 stock market turmoil. It dropped around 30% ! How's that for a safe asset?

I would put more trust in real estate as space is limited on this Earth and people will always need a place to sleep at night. But yet if we colonize new planets like Mars and Moon and people will be able to migrate there the RL might lose some of its value.

Maybe European euro? I mean it is still not a great fiat currency that we can support, no fiat currency is good enough to support but at least they do look like they are doing alright. It is strong in the sense that nations in Europe is not having some sort of crisis right now, looking at USA they have a ton of problems economically, looking at china they are doing amazing economically but politically it is a dictatorship that kills and harvests people so maybe not so strong politically.

However, there is nothing going on in Europe, maybe this brexit thing could have affected but it looks like it affected UK more than it affected EU and that is why Euro could be the strongest currency in the coming years. Still not that amazing considering it is still fiat but looks stronger than dollars.

Gold might be the safe alternative asset during the war because people trusted it and it has been used since the ancient times also it is more stable, but the problem is we cannot store a lot of gold safely, then the best alternative might be bitcoin, people can save a lot of money and without limits, as long as they hold their private key safely, then their assets will be safe, but no one can guarantee the price will be stable, especially during war, it is just too volatile.

If we want to invest in safe asset then invest your money in gold. Gold is a safe investment and rich people are keep investing in it because they know that they can survive in the next financial crisis. It is a reality that the dollar is weakening because of the bubble that happened. Financial crisis will come and gold and silver are the safest asset that we can acquire. 

For me, the safe asset is the gold where you can put your hard earned money and expect to survive even when the us dollar is continuously getting weak. Cryptocurrecies are also a good choice for a person who want a store value but it is not a safe asset because of the volatility in the market but it could also be use as an alternative to fiat since it is already popular.

It's so hard to USD be replaced to another fiat currency that we can talk about something else
But seriously, if a war happens, most probably USA will gain more strength and USD can stay the same or even stronger, there are a lot of reasons for that

Of course, each national currency of those countries that have a very strong and progressive economy has real value.  But if you take into account the US dollar, then this currency still remains the leader of the financial arink.  I think that it is not in vain that the United States of America is expanding its sphere of influence in many countries in order to support its economy by a political method.  Moreover, a lot of economies of different countries depend on the dollar.  Perhaps it is precisely because of this that the United States does not speak very favorably about cryptocurrency and, in particular, Bitcoin, since it is cryptocurrency that can become a real replacement for all fiat funds.

Gold and bitcoin both have a good potentials as they continuously getting attentions from investors views. If ever US dollars suffered it will bring
most of the fiat to its same trends, super nation like US won't allow that the fiat currency will be dominated by another currencies for sure they
will do something to regain it and continue to have the dominance.

Although China is aggressively propagating Yuanisation throughout the world, it is almost impossible for Yuan to replace the dollar with consideration:

The US dollar has been the world's main reserve currency for decades. According to the IMF, the US dollar currently covers 58% of the total foreign exchange reserves in the world and around 40% of world debt denominated in dollars. The IMF said the total world foreign exchange reserves in the second quarter of 2019 was equivalent to US $ 11.735 trillion. Of this amount, US $ 6.777 trillion (57.75%) was the US dollar while the Yuan was only around 1.85%. Gab is too big to compete with China. (Source: http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)


The global conspiracy of dedolarization will succeed if many countries agree and act to de-diversify their foreign exchange reserves into other forms or another currency. But because the axis of the world economy is the United States, foreign exchange reserves in the form of dollars are very necessary because at this time the dollar is still considered the safest save heaven and its value tend to rise when conflicts occur. So foreign exchange reserves in the form of large dollars can buffer domestic economic problems and external impacts.

The trade war between China and America is only an attribute, the real war between China and America is the ideological war of socialism vs. capitalism. The OBOR (One belt one road) program in China is a form of aid diplomacy not much different from the American Marshal plan or the Soviet Union's Molotov plan. The current conflict between the US and China is a struggle for the US (the dominant power) and China (the challenger) to expand their sphere of influence. In addition, Trump's inward-looking orientation (American First) is maximally utilized by China to maneuver into a regional power.

hopefully with the weakening of the USD can provide a new perspective on global currencies, many countries are starting to think of the USD because of price volatility. indeed gold is an alternative for their thinking, and it is not impossible that bitcoin will emerge and provide a view of the new currency

EURO has a horrible policy backing by its central bank, to consider that is to leap out of the saucepan into the fire it seems likely.   Dollar is still stronger over the last year so its not exactly displaying the weakness many think it might and that's usually explained by its use globally which still does not seem to be changing any time soon.

The safest asset according to ongoing thinking would be national government debt and its still dollars which are favoured.    That also is a trend which in theory should break, with interest rates and so inversely the debt priced at all time highs.   Its not a good asset to buy when over priced but that's the current market rating for safest asset.
  
The next FIAT after US dollar is already been established for 40 years since Nixon's administration.   He altered the terms of the Bretton Woods agreement by leaving the gold standard and so SDR came into existence which is a IMF scheme backed by every major country of the world now including China.  That's very likely the next candidate for world currency though its an unknown to most as it can only be traded by central banks as an asset not any smaller entity.

Consider Norway if you want a country running surplus not deficit - https://commodity.com/debt-clock/norway/
In theory they are far safer then most but some think debt makes you rich 

I do not trust trading with the Chinese Yen, there must be a different currency if you are looking for a volatile economy and gold is not a good alternative right now as the price keeps on rising for the past several days and bitcoin is the only asset that will not be linked with the real world issues as it is the one true global currency.

Euro? I doubt that. US is has quite a large reputation, and even if the debt is already way out of hand, the common populace still believe USD as the global currency. Plus, if your determining safe asset through price, that's already a mistake. Chinese Yuan would make a lot more sense as a choice tbh. There's also the issue of why are you depreciating Gold as an asset? Unlike USD, its fully backed by itself, which is a hard asset, when compared to USD which is backed by the "words" of the government. Which is more trust worthy at that point, gold or usd?

As a possible global currency which can be used by the majority of nations I did not see any of the commodity currencies or digital currencies you listed being an option.
Bitcoin could be used as a global reserve currency but not in the nearest future and no nation would trust their reserves on any current alternative currency.

The Chinese Yen should surely be included in your portfolio as they boost of one of the strongest economies in the world. Gold is a good alternative now, but not for the long term, in my opinion

If you are looking for a different fiat currency then every fiat has a weak point in them and they might crash at any point but the issue i find with your statement is that even if there is a war between Iraq or Iran how can you say that the dollar will weaken, if the crude oil prices rises then we can understand but how the valuation of dollar weakens confuses me.

Gold prices are soaring right now and hence i will not invest in gold at this point, i consider bitcoin much safer than any other asset to invest during a war.

The dollar isn't weakening. Despite "war", it's still the safest asset on the planet.

If there is a war in the middle east, the euro is not the currency to buy as the eurozone has no oil of it's own and will be badly affected by high oil prices, plus will also be affected by refugees.

There's no safe asset everything is at risk in having a recession just like what happened in the great depression where the cost of living was very expensive because of the USD collapsing. All we can do is migrate to a different investment to avoid loss, like for example gold its the only asset that doesn't have any huge volatility or bitcoin and crypto currency with innovative technology but has huge volatility.

I don't know why you considered gold as an unlikely choice. Unlike the dollar which is backed by the government, gold is a hard asset. It can easily retain its value even if US dollar crashes. Same can be said with Oil and Properties and the like. As for euro being a possible fiat, not likely. Euros are priced higher than US cause of the limited supply the government brings out, but this doesn't necessarily mean that the economy of Euro is greater than US.

Not likely. At least for now. Bitcoin is way too volatile, and it becoming the backbone of the economic situation right now? The chances are close to null really. Maybe after the last halving is done, Then YES, it has a chance, but right now? Nope.