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Topic: What is the deal with hoarding? (Read 5016 times)

sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
April 08, 2013, 04:40:51 PM
how does your approach compare to Ripple?

I think what he is describing is exactly what Ripple is....

Ie. Someone can have a ripple account backed by BTC, with the transactions happening in ripples and but ultimately guaranteed by bitcoins.

The beauty of that is we can be free to have a hundred different payment systems off the back of Bitcoin. And they can all be the best at what they do and we can fill lots of different niches in the best possible way.

Think of Bitcoin like the gold standard.
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1007
April 08, 2013, 04:18:10 PM
Bitcoin is unlikely to achieve a stable value in the foreseeable future, but that doesn't matter. Bitcoin is not destined to be used directly in ordinary commerce. Think about how HTTP is built on top of TCP/IP. In the same way, we will build new, stable currencies on top of bitcoin. They will be pegged to dollars, gold, oil, and anything else your heart desires.

I wrote a paper about this future, and if you come to the bitcoin conference in San Jose in May, you can hear me talk about it and ask questions at the "Bitcoin in the Future" panel.

The take-away is that buying bitcoins now is the best way to bet that these "child currencies" will be successful. They depend on bitcoin, and if they are successful, bitcoin values will go up.

how does your approach compare to Ripple?
legendary
Activity: 1988
Merit: 1012
Beyond Imagination
April 08, 2013, 04:12:22 PM
With inflative fiat and ever degrading physical goods, there is no way to store value, bitcoin was created to fill this demand vacuum, not to compete with fiat currency in payment function, its price will always rise, indicating a good store of value

There is a false education in economy school saying that people saving now for future spending, but I've seen many rich families saving their wealth now to be transfered to generation after generation, especially those banking families
yvv
legendary
Activity: 1344
Merit: 1000
.
April 08, 2013, 03:17:27 PM
Early adopters are going to get rich because late adopters are going to loose money.
I really wish that people would stop talking about loosing money. I, for one, intend to tighten my money. If it gets loose I'll use some duct tape.

Thanks for correction. English is not my first language, and this is were spell checker does not help.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1031
Rational Exuberance
April 08, 2013, 02:48:11 PM
Bitcoin is unlikely to achieve a stable value in the foreseeable future, but that doesn't matter. Bitcoin is not destined to be used directly in ordinary commerce. Think about how HTTP is built on top of TCP/IP. In the same way, we will build new, stable currencies on top of bitcoin. They will be pegged to dollars, gold, oil, and anything else your heart desires.

I wrote a paper about this future, and if you come to the bitcoin conference in San Jose in May, you can hear me talk about it and ask questions at the "Bitcoin in the Future" panel.

The take-away is that buying bitcoins now is the best way to bet that these "child currencies" will be successful. They depend on bitcoin, and if they are successful, bitcoin values will go up.
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
April 08, 2013, 02:20:06 PM
Early adopters are going to get rich because late adopters are going to loose money.
I really wish that people would stop talking about loosing money. I, for one, intend to tighten my money. If it gets loose I'll use some duct tape.
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 510
April 08, 2013, 02:11:45 PM
#99
Quote from: Cluster2k
Right now we have a problem.  Bitcoin's price is rising so fast, so high that you would be silly to spend any of them on goods and services.  Yes, downright stupid.  $15 in January, $60 in March, $160 in April.  At this pace we're looking at well over a thousand dollars before the end of 2013.  Parting with any bitcoins now is leaving a huge wad of money at the table and literally walking away.

One can look at the trade volume on MtGox as evidence that people are spending, but it must also be considered that people are rather speculating and trading.  One side wants to get out before a probable bubble pops, the other side wants to buy as many as possible and dump before the bubble pops.


WHY ON EARTH DO PEOPLE KEEP SAYING THAT NOBODY IS SPENDING BITCOINS?HuhHuh

It just keeps popping up... and I can't for the life of me figure out how we come to this conclusion.
Bitpay is getting a RECORD number of new merchants, and their sales figures are increasing at a record rate, so it's not just merchants signing up for an unused service... it doesn't even matter whether or not the merchant cashes out to USD; people are SPENDING BITCOINS. Sure, it sucks when you buy something with bitcoins when they're $24 and then at $150 you think of how much more money you could have... but what are you going to do, throw every single cent of FIAT at MT. GOX and live in a cardboard box on a hunger strike until bitcoin hits $1,000,000? DUDE, THAT'S SO TOTALLY NOT HOW IT WORKS. (Is anybody doing that? PLEASE tell me if you're doing that, so I can laugh at you, for being the one idiot that doesn't spend during deflationary opportunity)

Your theory is whack because it is based in a Paul Krugman wet dream fantasy world where people don't spend deflationary currencies since they will be worth more in the future. People are human, they have needs that must be fulfilled in the PRESENT MOMENT. When the need for something in the present moment surpasses any potential future benefit of putting off that need, the person will seek to meet the need in the present. Sure, I'll give you this: The faster the currency deflates, the saving:consumption ratio increases. But we're not at a point where nobody's spending bitcoins, because if that were the case, NOBODY WOULD BE SPENDING BITCOINS. By the way, the charts above say this a little better than my violent stream of arrogant language so I apologize. The problem you describe - we simply don't have this problem right now. When bitcoin starts going up 1000% a day then maybe people will start throwing every cent of fiat into bitcoin and living in cardboard boxes - then I'll concede to your superior logic :-P

People are spending bitcoins. So, Q.E.D. wipe Krugman's inflationary emission off your face and buy something with your bitcoins.  Grin Grin Grin


Transaction fees = spending Bitcoins.
legendary
Activity: 2506
Merit: 1010
April 08, 2013, 01:42:26 PM
#98
So it appears that the impression is that hoarders are hurting Bitcoin because we are not using it as its intended purpose, as a currency.

Which is only a problem when instead of hoarding these speculators turn into dumpers.   If the coins were mostly used in commerce for purchases, then there would be less volatility based on whatever the response is to the next news article on Bitcoin.     But when the (temporary) price top is reached and the exchange rate direction turns south -- those hoarders all stop hoarding and race to the exits.  Some will have made it out with plenty of gains, others roughly break-even, and the last ones who bought will see losses, sometimes heavy.

Now if the merchant can set prices in dollars and uses a payment processor who converts all bitcoin revenues to dollars at the spot rate at the time of sale (less the conversion fee), then the merchant can be pretty much agnostic about the exchange rate (though 10% swings in a day mean delays simply in waiting the hour for payment to confirm before the coins can be sold is something that will eat into profits)

But if the exchange rate is dropping and the hoarders start dumping, they will also be using their coins making spend purchases.

So bitcoin wins either way thanks to hoarding.   When the exchange rate is on the way up hoarding causes the exchange rate to rise which attracts others to buy bitcoins causing them to become familiar with buying bitcoins and using them in transactions.   When the exchange rate is headed down bitcoins get spent with merchants causing it to gain traction as a payment method.
hero member
Activity: 1302
Merit: 502
April 08, 2013, 01:40:36 PM
#97
Why?

Because it will crash as soon as newcomers will stop bringing their money into system. It will not stabilize, but crash. This system was not intended to be a pyramid, but it acts like a pyramid. Early adopters are going to get rich because late adopters are going to loose money.


Deflation is a pyramid, honestly. The only difference being it benefits everyone with savings in that currency.
legendary
Activity: 1176
Merit: 1010
Borsche
April 08, 2013, 01:39:14 PM
#96
Early adopters are going to get rich because late adopters are going to loose money.


Why would they lose? Only if they cash out lower, but they don't have to. The guys who "get rich" now didn't cash out at $2. That's how it works.
yvv
legendary
Activity: 1344
Merit: 1000
.
April 08, 2013, 01:33:36 PM
#95

Why?


Because it will crash as soon as newcomers will stop bringing their money into system. It will not stabilize, but crash. This system was not intended to be a pyramid, but it acts like a pyramid. Early adopters are going to get rich because late adopters are going to lose money.
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 106
April 08, 2013, 12:43:33 PM
#94
Agreed. I've seen some very sharp moves that indicated someone was dropping $250-$500k into the pot, I believe from $120 to $140. And I believe someone does keep prices stable before bidding up again. This kind of money can manipulate such immature markets, and is very scary.
hero member
Activity: 1302
Merit: 502
April 08, 2013, 12:39:36 PM
#93

I see his point though, I read it wrong. It was that last sentence that threw me off, which is %100 incorrect.

I wrote it based on my experience. When I learned about bitcoins several month ago, I got a couple of BTC to test the technology. Technology is a piece of cake, but since then I did not find any use for my btc yet, except wasting some mbtc in online casino.

If you think that bitcoin is good for storage of wealth your are 100% wrong for a reason I mentioned above.

Why? I can buy a house, car, any electronics device, anything on any website that Bitspend accepts, so pretty much anything besides groceries that can spoil.
At the moment I am gaining on my savings, whereas in any bank account in the US I would lose. Dollar averaging will make my savings fine all the way down to $20.
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 106
April 08, 2013, 12:32:21 PM
#92
I know 5 individuals who buy BTC simply to purchase "stuff" from Silk Road.

They don't care how much a bitcoin costs...This is why trade is so important. and why bitcoin is so different. Unlike gold and almost every other kind of investment, you can actually spend your bitcoin directly so as long as that demand continues the price of bitcoin will continue to appreciate over the long term.

In the short term I think we are clearly in a bubble and there will be winners and losers as you say.
Well, I meant moreso the inflows to pay for the 3600 new bitcoins minted per day at the current market value to maintain the current market value. Basically mestar's argument. I think he grew tired of the discussion hehe.

Hm, now that's interesting. You think it's 1 individual/entity?
yvv
legendary
Activity: 1344
Merit: 1000
.
April 08, 2013, 12:31:30 PM
#91

I see his point though, I read it wrong. It was that last sentence that threw me off, which is %100 incorrect.

I wrote it based on my experience. When I learned about bitcoins several month ago, I got a couple of BTC to test the technology. Technology is a piece of cake, but since then I did not find any use for my btc yet, except wasting some mbtc in online casino.

If you think that bitcoin is good for storage of wealth your are 100% wrong for a reason I mentioned above.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
April 08, 2013, 12:29:04 PM
#90
What hasn't really been addressed in this thread though, is where all that new daily inflows will come from. The higher the price goes, the more pressure it will face.

I know 5 individuals who buy BTC simply to purchase "stuff" from Silk Road.

They don't care how much a bitcoin costs...This is why trade is so important. and why bitcoin is so different. Unlike gold and almost every other kind of investment, you can actually spend your bitcoin directly so as long as that demand continues the price of bitcoin will continue to appreciate over the long term.

In the short term I think we are clearly in a bubble and there will be winners and losers as you say.
hero member
Activity: 1302
Merit: 502
April 08, 2013, 12:22:23 PM
#89
What hasn't really been addressed in this thread though, is where all that new daily inflows will come from. The higher the price goes, the more pressure it will face.

Truth.
Hopefully there are more libertarians with deep pockets out there.  Wink
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 106
April 08, 2013, 12:16:43 PM
#88
What hasn't really been addressed in this thread though, is where all that new daily inflows will come from. The higher the price goes, the more pressure it will face.
hero member
Activity: 1302
Merit: 502
April 08, 2013, 12:14:49 PM
#87
But that's what you have right now. You're making his point.

Hoarders will never get punished unless Bitcoin tanks significantly, which I sincerely doubt at this point unless there is a protocol failure.
Saving is hoarding is saving.

Furthermore, I, as a "hoarder", don't think I'll be able to buy a Porsche (even though I actually could right now), I just want to protect my money from Ben Bernanke and the organized theft of my savings. I've bought Bitcoin all the way up. It's a store of value just as much as it's a transactional currency. People seemingly forget this every moment of every day.

I see his point though, I read it wrong. It was that last sentence that threw me off, which is %100 incorrect.
full member
Activity: 182
Merit: 106
April 08, 2013, 12:05:40 PM
#86
But that's what you have right now. You're making his point.
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