What is the endgame for BTC? | Bitcointalksearch.org

shields

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Quote from: TrevorS on August 20, 2014, 06:20:38 PM

Quote from: shields on August 20, 2014, 05:27:36 AM

Quote from: TrevorS on August 18, 2014, 10:30:09 PM

As mining becomes more and more difficult and expensive, fewer and fewer people will mine.
.....
Am I missing something? (Hopefully!)

Both of these things can't be true at the same time, if more mining power is leaving than joining then mining gets less difficult and less expensive.

So I've learned, as hash power is reduced, difficulty likewise reduces. On the other hand, the halving process continues doesn't it? Doesn't that have the same net effect as increasing difficulty?

It depends on what portion of the mining payout is block reward and fees. If fees are a very small part then yes the halfing has the same effect as difficulty doubling - miners will make half of what they did before. This already happened once, and yet mining hashrate continued to grow - why? because bitcoin is still growing, more users == higher price == more incentive to mine.

One of the common failures when analysing bitcoin is to consider future events but assume that the state of the ecosystem will be the same as today. If Bitcoin keeps growing, when future halvings occur the price per coin will be much higher, and the transaction fees will be a bigger part of the mining reward - some day they will exceed the block reward.

DrG

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Quote from: TrevorS on August 23, 2014, 07:57:21 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: xstr8guy on August 22, 2014, 02:20:49 AM

Quote from: seriouscoin on August 19, 2014, 07:17:34 AM

Quote from: xstr8guy on August 18, 2014, 11:08:50 PM

This is where I'm coming from...

Once I can no longer profit from mining, I'm done with BTC. I'm simply not an investment speculator. And I see no real advantages with buying BTC on an exchange and using it to make purchases. I'd rather just use a credit card and have consumer protection.

I'm not a libertarian and bank failures and politics scare me less than BTC potentially dropping to zero.

In my opinion, the extinction of home miners will ultimately cause the failure of BTC. Home miners actually use their BTC stash as it's intended, to make purchases. Although they just usually spend their saved BTC on new mining gear, lol. They also hoard their earnings while large-scale mining operations continually dump their BTC and exchange for fiat. Which will ultimately causes the price to crash once home miners are completely out of the picture.

This retard doesnt even know mining is also speculating. He thinks that because he didnt pay for those mined btc, its free!.

LOL

Why are you such a despicable, hateful twat?

Speculating and mining are entirely different. Just because there is also an element of risk in buying mining equipment doesn't make it the same as speculating on the price of bitcoin.

I think you're the retarded one.

Dumbfck, i'm not talking about the risk in buying mining rig. The whole mining expense and ROI are based on fiat. So you're hoping the price of btc doesnt fall.

Both mining difficulty and price of btc affect your mining business. But dumb fcks like you dont see it.

As the OP, I request you no longer respond to this thread. Your attitude and language is far too abusive to be tolerable. Well considered argument as in respectful debate/rebuttal/discussion is entirely welcome, but what you are providing is not. Please move on!

Thanks -- Trevor!

Yeah that's really uncalled for. I noticed he has been railing on xstr8guy in multiple threads. Remember that people have sold Bitcointalk accounts so it's possible his account was sold or hijacked.

TrevorS

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: xstr8guy on August 22, 2014, 02:20:49 AM

Quote from: seriouscoin on August 19, 2014, 07:17:34 AM

Quote from: xstr8guy on August 18, 2014, 11:08:50 PM

This is where I'm coming from...

Once I can no longer profit from mining, I'm done with BTC. I'm simply not an investment speculator. And I see no real advantages with buying BTC on an exchange and using it to make purchases. I'd rather just use a credit card and have consumer protection.

I'm not a libertarian and bank failures and politics scare me less than BTC potentially dropping to zero.

In my opinion, the extinction of home miners will ultimately cause the failure of BTC. Home miners actually use their BTC stash as it's intended, to make purchases. Although they just usually spend their saved BTC on new mining gear, lol. They also hoard their earnings while large-scale mining operations continually dump their BTC and exchange for fiat. Which will ultimately causes the price to crash once home miners are completely out of the picture.

This retard doesnt even know mining is also speculating. He thinks that because he didnt pay for those mined btc, its free!.

LOL

Why are you such a despicable, hateful twat?

Speculating and mining are entirely different. Just because there is also an element of risk in buying mining equipment doesn't make it the same as speculating on the price of bitcoin.

I think you're the retarded one.

Dumbfck, i'm not talking about the risk in buying mining rig. The whole mining expense and ROI are based on fiat. So you're hoping the price of btc doesnt fall.

Both mining difficulty and price of btc affect your mining business. But dumb fcks like you dont see it.

As the OP, I request you no longer respond to this thread. Your attitude and language is far too abusive to be tolerable. Well considered argument as in respectful debate/rebuttal/discussion is entirely welcome, but what you are providing is not. Please move on!

Thanks -- Trevor!

crocko

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'All that glitters is not gold'

Quote from: frankenmint on August 19, 2014, 06:44:06 AM

Quote from: RoadStress on August 19, 2014, 05:43:34 AM

Quote from: xstr8guy on August 18, 2014, 11:08:50 PM

In my opinion, the extinction of home miners will ultimately cause the failure of BTC.

I don't agree with this. BTC has nothing to do with the failure or success of home miners.

I'm going to side with roadstress here - just because I run an large mining operation that doesn't mean i'm cashing out to fiat right away - perhaps I DONT want to flash crash everything so I have an incentive to sell it slowly at an average pace - keeping a large chunk for later.

I think the end-game for BTC happens when we all aggressively leave BTC because a new system occurs that has higher monetary incentive than bitcoin, with current gen asic hardware. So far as I can tell, nothing on earth could disrupt BTC's place unless a country is willing to go so far as to actually back a new type of cryptocurrency that can use existing POW sha256 mining power and can back real world value like current fiat - that is unlikely to happen though as no practical national leader would take such a great risk on a new experimental technology. Could you imagine the countless deviants trying to 51% it?

I bet that will see such an experiment in Argentina.

cisahasa

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this is gamble..

xstr8guy

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Glow Stick Dance!

Quote from: seriouscoin on August 19, 2014, 07:17:34 AM

Quote from: xstr8guy on August 18, 2014, 11:08:50 PM

This is where I'm coming from...

Once I can no longer profit from mining, I'm done with BTC. I'm simply not an investment speculator. And I see no real advantages with buying BTC on an exchange and using it to make purchases. I'd rather just use a credit card and have consumer protection.

I'm not a libertarian and bank failures and politics scare me less than BTC potentially dropping to zero.

In my opinion, the extinction of home miners will ultimately cause the failure of BTC. Home miners actually use their BTC stash as it's intended, to make purchases. Although they just usually spend their saved BTC on new mining gear, lol. They also hoard their earnings while large-scale mining operations continually dump their BTC and exchange for fiat. Which will ultimately causes the price to crash once home miners are completely out of the picture.

This retard doesnt even know mining is also speculating. He thinks that because he didnt pay for those mined btc, its free!.

LOL

Why are you such a despicable, hateful twat?

Speculating and mining are entirely different. Just because there is also an element of risk in buying mining equipment doesn't make it the same as speculating on the price of bitcoin.

I think you're the retarded one.

pjviitas

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Once all mining becomes centralized...the gentrification of Bitcoin is inevitable.

TrevorS

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Quote from: seriouscoin on August 20, 2014, 07:10:30 PM

Quote from: TrevorS on August 20, 2014, 04:33:00 AM

Quote from: seriouscoin on August 20, 2014, 04:10:27 AM

Dumbass , look at 2011 and learn from there.

Use your brain once in a while can you?

You call me dumb ass, fine! I'd like to believe BTC is for long term real, but am having difficulty seeing how. Would you please explain? What are the holes in my argument? Many thanks

!

You want me to spoonfed you? I already told you where and what to look for.
Or you're just being a troll here? (worse than a dumbass)

Well, I guess I really must be a dumb ass (hopelessly mentally deficient) because I completely fail to see what BTC price behavior around a halving has to do with ROI of miners following the ending of block rewards. At that point, the only reward stems from BTC transaction fees, which could be significant enough to serve as a damper on transactions. Seems unlikely that any but large mining operations will be able to be profitable at that point, and they had better have near free electricity, warehousing, and maintenance. (Iceland?) So, I guess the ending of the smaller miner really is written into the program! Rebuttal? Do you really expect BTC to be just as highly valued as Gold (an industrially useful metal)? The sky's the limit?

seriouscoin

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Quote from: TrevorS on August 20, 2014, 04:33:00 AM

Quote from: seriouscoin on August 20, 2014, 04:10:27 AM

Quote from: TrevorS on August 19, 2014, 06:51:36 PM

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on August 19, 2014, 04:58:03 PM

If there is a net decrease in computing power on the network (because some people stop mining due to a lack of profit) then difficulty will decline. There will always be someone who is mining. The margin miner (those with lowest efficiency and highest operating costs) will quit first. When they do the difficulty will decrease and the profitability of the remaining miners will increase.

If difficulty is proportional to network hash capacity, then perhaps that solves that aspect (as long as the threshold is set so that sufficient mining population breadth is preserved), but what about the "halving" mechanism? It decreases profitability just as surely as increasing difficulty! Perhaps miner population breadth is a predetermined casualty? All that can survive are the very largest miners (and perhaps even then, only for awhile?) How free can how much electricity, warehousing and maintenance be?

Dumbass , look at 2011 and learn from there.

Use your brain once in a while can you?

You call me dumb ass, fine! I'd like to believe BTC is for long term real, but am having difficulty seeing how. Would you please explain? What are the holes in my argument? Many thanks

!

You want me to spoonfed you? I already told you where and what to look for.
Or you're just being a troll here? (worse than a dumbass)

TrevorS

sr. member

Activity: 1050

Merit: 377

Quote from: shields on August 20, 2014, 05:27:36 AM

Quote from: TrevorS on August 18, 2014, 10:30:09 PM

As mining becomes more and more difficult and expensive, fewer and fewer people will mine.
.....
Am I missing something? (Hopefully!)

Both of these things can't be true at the same time, if more mining power is leaving than joining then mining gets less difficult and less expensive.

So I've learned, as hash power is reduced, difficulty likewise reduces. On the other hand, the halving process continues doesn't it? Doesn't that have the same net effect as increasing difficulty?

shields

full member

Activity: 164

Merit: 100

Quote from: TrevorS on August 18, 2014, 10:30:09 PM

As mining becomes more and more difficult and expensive, fewer and fewer people will mine.
.....
Am I missing something? (Hopefully!)

Both of these things can't be true at the same time, if more mining power is leaving than joining then mining gets less difficult and less expensive.

TrevorS

sr. member

Activity: 1050

Merit: 377

Quote from: seriouscoin on August 20, 2014, 04:10:27 AM

Quote from: TrevorS on August 19, 2014, 06:51:36 PM

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on August 19, 2014, 04:58:03 PM

If there is a net decrease in computing power on the network (because some people stop mining due to a lack of profit) then difficulty will decline. There will always be someone who is mining. The margin miner (those with lowest efficiency and highest operating costs) will quit first. When they do the difficulty will decrease and the profitability of the remaining miners will increase.

If difficulty is proportional to network hash capacity, then perhaps that solves that aspect (as long as the threshold is set so that sufficient mining population breadth is preserved), but what about the "halving" mechanism? It decreases profitability just as surely as increasing difficulty! Perhaps miner population breadth is a predetermined casualty? All that can survive are the very largest miners (and perhaps even then, only for awhile?) How free can how much electricity, warehousing and maintenance be?

Dumbass , look at 2011 and learn from there.

Use your brain once in a while can you?

You call me dumb ass, fine! I'd like to believe BTC is for long term real, but am having difficulty seeing how. Would you please explain? What are the holes in my argument? Many thanks

!

seriouscoin

hero member

Activity: 658

Merit: 500

Quote from: TrevorS on August 19, 2014, 06:51:36 PM

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on August 19, 2014, 04:58:03 PM

If there is a net decrease in computing power on the network (because some people stop mining due to a lack of profit) then difficulty will decline. There will always be someone who is mining. The margin miner (those with lowest efficiency and highest operating costs) will quit first. When they do the difficulty will decrease and the profitability of the remaining miners will increase.

If difficulty is proportional to network hash capacity, then perhaps that solves that aspect (as long as the threshold is set so that sufficient mining population breadth is preserved), but what about the "halving" mechanism? It decreases profitability just as surely as increasing difficulty! Perhaps miner population breadth is a predetermined casualty? All that can survive are the very largest miners (and perhaps even then, only for awhile?) How free can how much electricity, warehousing and maintenance be?

Dumbass , look at 2011 and learn from there.

Use your brain once in a while can you?

TrevorS

sr. member

Activity: 1050

Merit: 377

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on August 19, 2014, 04:58:03 PM

If there is a net decrease in computing power on the network (because some people stop mining due to a lack of profit) then difficulty will decline. There will always be someone who is mining. The margin miner (those with lowest efficiency and highest operating costs) will quit first. When they do the difficulty will decrease and the profitability of the remaining miners will increase.

If difficulty is proportional to network hash capacity, then perhaps that solves that aspect (as long as the threshold is set so that sufficient mining population breadth is preserved), but what about the "halving" mechanism? It decreases profitability just as surely as increasing difficulty! Perhaps miner population breadth is a predetermined casualty? All that can survive are the very largest miners (and perhaps even then, only for awhile?) How free can how much electricity, warehousing and maintenance be?

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

If there is a net decrease in computing power on the network (because some people stop mining due to a lack of profit) then difficulty will decline. There will always be someone who is mining. The margin miner (those with lowest efficiency and highest operating costs) will quit first. When they do the difficulty will decrease and the profitability of the remaining miners will increase.

TrevorS

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Activity: 1050

Merit: 377

Quote from: TrevorS on August 18, 2014, 10:30:09 PM

As mining becomes more and more difficult and expensive, fewer and fewer people will mine. If the large scale miners (farms, clouds, hosts, etc) ultimately can't afford to keep mining, mining will grind to a halt. Long before that point is reached, the length of time required to validate block chain transactions will start increasing, the more trading/spending/buying transactions taking place only making that worse. Seems to me the only thing that makes BTC workable is the willingness of enough people to mine, preferably as broad a swath as practical to ensure no few individuals can significantly manipulate throughput. In absence of that, BTC transactions will not be able to be validated (or validation will become too slow) and the coin will collapse.

Am I missing something? (Hopefully!)

The responses largely focus on the second poster, but what is the rebuttal to the above scenario? Why would miner's mine if it's not profitable? Hobbyists wouldn't be enough to support the network. Without active block chain validation, how can BTC exist? It appears to me that the drive to grow efficiency and magnitude of mining operations (intention being profit) is having the effect of hurrying BTC to extinction!

PS. If BTC joins the international financial system, then doesn't it also lose the freedom from tax, tariff, and banking overhead/oversight that currently make it attractive as a medium for exchange/barter?

byronbb

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If bitcoin becomes part of the global financial system then there would be incentive to support the network even at break-even or even a small loss. Gold must be stored and guarded, fiat must be moved around by armoured truck and guards etc. no different.

seriouscoin

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Quote from: xstr8guy on August 18, 2014, 11:08:50 PM

This is where I'm coming from...

Once I can no longer profit from mining, I'm done with BTC. I'm simply not an investment speculator. And I see no real advantages with buying BTC on an exchange and using it to make purchases. I'd rather just use a credit card and have consumer protection.

I'm not a libertarian and bank failures and politics scare me less than BTC potentially dropping to zero.

In my opinion, the extinction of home miners will ultimately cause the failure of BTC. Home miners actually use their BTC stash as it's intended, to make purchases. Although they just usually spend their saved BTC on new mining gear, lol. They also hoard their earnings while large-scale mining operations continually dump their BTC and exchange for fiat. Which will ultimately causes the price to crash once home miners are completely out of the picture.

This retard doesnt even know mining is also speculating. He thinks that because he didnt pay for those mined btc, its free!.

LOL

TookDk

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One coin to rule them all

Quote from: xstr8guy on August 18, 2014, 11:08:50 PM

bank failures and politics scare me less than BTC potentially dropping to zero.

Bank failures and politics scare me more than BTC potentially dropping to zero...

frankenmint

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Quote from: RoadStress on August 19, 2014, 05:43:34 AM

Quote from: xstr8guy on August 18, 2014, 11:08:50 PM

In my opinion, the extinction of home miners will ultimately cause the failure of BTC.

I don't agree with this. BTC has nothing to do with the failure or success of home miners.

I'm going to side with roadstress here - just because I run an large mining operation that doesn't mean i'm cashing out to fiat right away - perhaps I DONT want to flash crash everything so I have an incentive to sell it slowly at an average pace - keeping a large chunk for later.

I think the end-game for BTC happens when we all aggressively leave BTC because a new system occurs that has higher monetary incentive than bitcoin, with current gen asic hardware. So far as I can tell, nothing on earth could disrupt BTC's place unless a country is willing to go so far as to actually back a new type of cryptocurrency that can use existing POW sha256 mining power and can back real world value like current fiat - that is unlikely to happen though as no practical national leader would take such a great risk on a new experimental technology. Could you imagine the countless deviants trying to 51% it?

Topic: What is the endgame for BTC? (Read 2604 times)