Topic: What is the most likely outcome on August 1st ? - page 4. (Read 3807 times)

I don't think so. We can just predict what will happen for tomorrow. Maybe the Bitcoin price in August 1st will increase and everyone who saves bitcoin in their own wallet earns a big profit. If you save 1BTC in your own wallet, it maybe doubles soon after August 1st. As long as the day lasts, the prices rise too. There are people who are rich in Bitcoin. They are the one who saves a big money in their wallet and patiently waiting to raise its price. Bitcoin price was fluctuating. You don't know its rising again. But it better for you to save than selling it.

I've absolutely no isea why you or anyone else keeps focusing on the 1st of August. Nothing is happening then. Ffs.

What is your reasoning behind thinking that bitcoin will go down in price if it is scaled to handle more transactions?  I'm curious because I am not quite sure why anyone wouldn't want bitcoin to be scaled to be able to handle the masses.

I get the libertarian point of view, but let's be honest, some people bought in as an experiment or to try and take the power away from big banks, but most people bought bitcoin as an investment to hopefully make money off of it.   

Some of the reports that I am reading have been suggesting that you move coins off of hot wallet sites like coinbase, etc, and into hardware wallets.  I am not sure if this is just because they may halt withdrawals until their systems can figure out how to accommodate the situation or what.

I have seen conflicting info regarding "older transactions being erased from the chain"  if we end up in a hard fork situation.  I'm happy this thread was started, as I was wondering other people's opinion on this matter as well.

Let's all be optimistic, everything will go fine and soon after august 1st we will be even richer.

UASF has almost no support but it seems the threat of it has got the community coming to a consensus, my prediction is that nothing major happens and the markets rejoice there will be no hardfork and hopefully even be a real scaling solution out of it all.

The majority Bitcoin users don't want the bitcoin will be ended like ETH with the forked one ETC. Say no to UASF and yes for Segwit. The UASF will be forked the chain and that makes another forked chain will have appeared.
UASF will never have happened and there is not something special at the first of August. 
Proud for SegWit.

Probably nothing is going to come out of it, I can personally see a ton of the miners just bowing out before something like this actually going through in fear of what the community is going to say and think and what the price is going to do because of it. Because the last thing these miners want is to lose out on potential profits as they trying to 'fix' all of this, while I do think they'll be looking out for the best interest I think they'd rather just try to squeeze out all of the money that they can out of Bitcoin, as that's usually all people care for these days.I don't think anything will come from it, sadly.

Everybody shall remember what happened a year ago.

I mean the halving. Most people said at the time that BTC would go to the roof, because of that new scarcity, but nothing happened. The price BTC remained flat for several months after the halving.

I am not sure how Litecoin and Bitcoin are connected, i guess they are not. But i believe that there will be scaling on 1st of August. Also i believe that it will be good for Bitcoin. But i also believe that price of Bitcoin will go down, which is not so good for me or for other people that are saving Bitcoins. I will sell all i have (which is not much) before 1st of August.

ye we can hope so that August 1st is going not to do anything with bitcoin. i am sure bitcoin price will not be effected so much with that decision, and will continue increase with it s previous tool . hope we will see more increase in the price of bitcoin very soon.

So in theory we will get the segwit without the 2x part down the line? (seems a lilttle bit fishy.. pardon the pun)
I just hope Bitcoin scales for the longterm. Its clear the world is ready for it.

I don't expect anything to happen on August 1.

Without more than 50% of the hash rate, I don't see how a UASF fork can succeed. The UASF fork will fall behind and miners will abandon it. The already low transaction capacity will drop further and users will abandon it. The lower the UASF hash rate is, the more quickly it will fall behind and the more quickly it will be abandoned.

On the other hand, if miners signal Segwit because they fear UASF, then the UASF goal will be achieved even if the fork itself fails.

Bitcoin will not crash, that is 100%, but it could stop raising so fast. Fork can do some negative work, but if we will look in future, than we will see bitcoin growing stable, without any problems.

...

Well it sure looks more optimistic than a few weeks ago when the two camps were close to going nuclear on each other.  If all goes well, I would go along with ebliever's probabilities.  Then, it's likely that with this BTC problem solved (for now), BTC price could move up nicely.

If they screw this up (Developers or Miners), then all bets are off, and BTC may crater.  But, I feel better about the likelihood that BTC's future outlook has improved over the past couple of weeks.

I hope that I am right...

+1

and a video : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rpeceXY1QBM

Assuming the software doesn't blow up (I'm not real confident, but with so much riding on it they might actually get it right this time), the Segwit2X folks should have SW enabled for signaling on July 21. With 86% miner support at the moment, IF some of the miners don't pull out at the last minute (i.e., Bitmain) then SW will be close to activation on August 1.

Note that this depends on a couple things. I'd put the chances of SW2X pulling it off at around 60%, IMO.

If something goes wrong or Bitmain reneges again, then BIP148 gets activated. It will be messy but it will win. Jimmy Song has a good article explaining why, and the case has only gotten stronger since he wrote it.  The majority of miners, having just spent a month publicly declaring their intention to support SW, are not going to universally turn against it on August 1. Even if some follow Bitmain's lead or get cold feet, enough will stick with it to make BIP148 viable. And if it is viable on August 1, victory is virtually assured.

Song's article:
https://medium.com/@jimmysong/uasf-bip148-scenarios-and-game-theory-9530336d953e

So my prediction at this point looks something like this:

60% of Segwit activating thru SW2X, no BIP148 activation.
35% of Segwit activating though BIP148 w. some turmoil. Bitmain may try to fight with their planned fork, or may abandon its bluff. Doesn't matter either way.
5% of something else...

Nothing will happen. We will get segwit through segwit2x. The ideal way to get segwit was BIP141, but we are getting segwit anyway. UASF won, because we are getting segwit, so UASF is no longer relevant, even tho people should still run it until segwit is locked in. Never trust miners, they are not your friends.

Once segwit is activated, there will be no hardfork, and whoever tries to hardfork will end up with a crashing altcoin.

On August 1st UASF will get activated, but literally nothing will happen because UASF is a joke.
The overwhelming majority of mining power supports Segwit2x, and we will get that first.

Yes segwit2x might get activated by august this year which is one of the scaling solution supported by large community. There is no relation between litecoin and bitcoin, but I am expecting a good pump on bitcoin price when segwit2x will be activated. Litecoin also got good rise after segwit activation on litecoin network few weeks before.