Topic: What is up with the hashrate? (Read 3143 times)

Yeah, it kinda missed them the other day + I was looking to deep in the research of CannabisCoin, that is abad combination. I realized that KGB is closed down, so they have a new name, but I think the same people is involved just a new brand.

It appears the estimated hashrate is coming back to earth. Bad luck last round + Good luck this round = Crazy spike.

Aliens attacking our currency 

but yeah there are alot of miners out there turning on and out their hw

Haha...  Good call!

Brian has obviously let his prescriptions lapse. 

NSA?  KGB?

If this is an attack, then the protocol has been under attack more or less for the entirety of its existence.

Still goes to show that the majority of traders are emotionally driven amateurs.

I am getting serious worried too    (but still convinst that it is some kind of new attack, that we do not know of yet, maybe NSA or KGB has build in a trojan or something)

Shit.... The hash rate may break 180MM GH/s. A 40 PH/S swing in a matter of 12 hours is some pretty serious variance. I doubt anyone is attacking the network, but something is going on.

The price is down due to all the news from the US Consumer Protection Agency and all the regulation talk.

+1

Bitcoin will go up

Expect increases to jump in blocks as each DC comes online. My guess is when the cost of mining on a world average across data centres equals about 85% of the mining profit ( around about a diff of 80⁹ give or take.... ), then these large jumps will be long over.

The coming year will be dominated by the war of the data centres.

Might not be an techinical expert, but it is an attack for sure! Look at the exhange rate it going down down down... its under attack! HODL!

You keep rambling on about an attack.  Show me one credible article discussing this attack.

It looks like a 0-day attack with multiple switch bypass, there is no doubt now, the network is under serious attack, take all the coins away from the blockchain and butin trevor or paper wallet else you cannot be sure and sleep bad there is little time. HODL!

Some hard numbers on variance in hash rates.

If you take the average hash rate over one day you can expect to see 10% swings from one day to the next.  Even swings of plus and minus 20% of the true value are reasonably likely.  For example if the real network hash rate is 200 Petahash it is statistically reasonably for the daily average to read 160 Petahash one day and 240 Petahash the next even if nothing changed.

If you take more samples (blocks) the variance (error) declines.  Over 2016 blocks (difficulty change) 2% errors in variation are possible even if the number of miners never changed.  If the real network growth over 2016 blocks is exactly 2% the calculated difficulty change could be anywhere between -2% and 6%.  

So expect to see negative difficulty changes in the future due to calculation error even if the network is still gradually growing.  

Mathematically there is a 10 minute block average solve time with a 10 minute variance (poisson distribution).  So the standard deviation percentage error in solve time is 100 / sqrt(number blocks).  This gives a standard deviation error of 8.3% for 144 blocks (1 day), 4.5% for 504 blocks, and 2.2% for 2016 blocks (difficulty change).  The variation will be within 2 Standard Deviations of the true value 95% of the time.  

Just where does a company get temporary access to a datacenter capable of testing dozens of PHs of equipment?

It would take weeks to setup, cost a fortune and all just to test a massive pile of equipment before shipping.

What we are seeing with the network hashrate is normal growth which includes home miners and massive, permanent datacenter all adding new equipment. And normal variance swings.

However, when the network was much, much smaller, it may have been possible to notice new waves of equipment being tested. But those days are long gone.

so there's plenty of ASIC companies making products; could be any one of em testing their fleet; right? (along with normal variance)

Please.  That professor's supercomputer would be green with envy sitting next to a KNC Neptune.  The swing is only about 15% from the midline.  That's been the norm since 2009.

Maybe it's that professor hacking a supercomputer to mine bitcoin again
http://banksworstfear.com/professor-banned-mining-bitcoin/

i doubt it is an attack, more likely just a variance.
Time will tell.