Topic: What is your outlook (price target) for bitcoin in the next 2 years ? (Read 3308 times)

Not saying this will always be the case. In distant future maybe bitcoin will become universally adopted, and some very powerful entities will stand to defend it. Mining for profit will no longer be the main motive. In this case, maybe only 1% of miners will be online consuming power, with 99% sitting in reserve ready to divert an attack. And a fleet of F-1515 tachionic interceptors ready to nuke malicious miners ...

Agree )

The Labor Theory of Value is still wrong.

If you wanted to do a 51% attack you'd have to have as much mining equipment as the rest of the network combined.

That would change your very tenuous equation to

Fair value of a bitcoin = (cost of all mining equipment) / (number of bitcoins in existence) ~= $20M/11M ~= $2

Fair value of a bitcoin = (cost of all mining equipment) * 0.51 / (number of bitcoins in existence) ~= $20M*0.51/11M ~= $1

Because this is what it costs to destroy the bitcoin. Would you risk investing $100 into something that could be destroyed for the cost of $1, without any risk of legal action or war, as with fiat currencies?

Satoshi argued that if anyone had the resources to launch a 51% attack, she will be better off just mining bitcoins and profiting from it. The fallacy here is that profit and double-spending are attacker's only motive. But there could be a lot of more powerful motives to destroy the bitcoin. A competing blockchain. VISA and PayPal. War on drugs. War on tax evasion and money laundering.

Sure, I went on a tangent here. But it was not me who started this off-topic argument. I stayed strictly on-topic until the idiots chirped-in with their [whatever you call that].

My apologies to the OP, I should not have called your tread meaningless, I apologise again.

Usually when you want to talk about something completely unrelated to the OP you start a new thread.  Instead, you seem to have called this thread pointless and are attempting to start a new topic in its place.

Having (being bored, I guess) participated in this poll, I found the irrational speculation about the price of Bitcoin in two years to be quite meaningless.

To challenge the "intellect" of the people in this tread who know how Bitcoin works, I propose we start speculating on when (month, year) the transactional fee will exceed the block reward.

In my humble view, at that time the average individual-mining-profitability will stop determining the price of the Bitcoin. Instead, the average pool-profitability (solo-miners included) will start determining the price of Bitcoin.

And of course, in time, the transaction fee will exceed the pitiful BTC 25 (or who knows, BTC 12.5? BTC 6.25?) one gets as a reward to solve a block, hopefully reaching the astronomical figures everyone dreams about.

How about 1% transaction fee, and how many transaction could be included into a 1MB block? Everyone should be able to calculate this simple problem. I am sure the people in the know will celebrate that moment like their is no tomorrow!

But hopefully, at that same moment, the Network would have gained good, solid substance and the market-maker traders will decide to join and start playing yo-yo with the (proper size this time) market.

Methinks, good for them.

Too bad for the pigs, though, they will get slaughtered again.

Nothing new under the sky.

True, but I don't think this January growth can really last for two years

If we extrapolate from the last few weeks to over the next two years... we'll be over 9000 in no time :p

Voted between 100 and 500 seeing the general trend of the last months...

Another competitor in securing the network.  All good in my book.

I'm not sure whether the fact that he'll continue making a profit without understanding how Bitcoin works is good or bad 

I am quite sure you don't understand what determines BTC prices, or how mining competition works, but good for you that you turned a nice profit.
May you continue to do so in the future while securing the network.

You really really dont understand how it works....
Im baffled.

OK, it has never been my intention to force my opinion to anyone - I was merely replying to the OP's poll and arguing my view. As I stated, that was my thumb suck, and nothing else.

I am comfortable with my knowledge, I started mining with a single CPU, then moved along with the technology, well, I always ensured to stay way ahead of it. Currently I am mining with FPGAs (very profitably, FYI) and soon I will have considerable hash-rates thanks to the AISCs I will deploy. I've planned that right, and as usual, I will enjoying the results of my plans.

But you people should not worry about me being right or wrong - it is quite easy to determine if I am wrong - you just have to wait a year or two.

Fortunately, most of the ones who called the raise of BTC to over [insert your favourite unreasonable value here] will be long gone by the year end, similar to the ones who "predicted" in June 2011 that the BTC will be worth over $100 before the year end, or the others who stated that the BTC will be worth $millions by the time of the decade and one could buy a house with a single Bitcoin.

Unlike me, back in the days, where I thought the market will tolerate reasonable value for the BTC of not more than 100% of the mining cost - so we ended up with BTC=$5 and I made quite a profit with that.

So I rest my case. 

No, but it will probably stop them from making a profit.

Here is a clue; as with almost anything,  price of bitcoin is determined by supply and demand. Supply is now 25 BTC per ~10 minutes, regardless if you are the only one mining on the planet using a $25 raspberry pi or if 10 million miners spent $100,000 each on asics. Supply is fixed by the algorithm, and demand doesnt come from miners, it comes from speculators, hoarders, gamblers, drug users and anyone else wanting to buy BTC. The notion that mining cost has anything to do with bitcoin price is ludicrous. The only thing that it has something to do with the mining cost, is mining profit, and if everyone is as clueless as you, that profit will vanish real quick.  I dont know what you are mining with today, but I do hope you understand your GPU's and FGPAs are about produce only ~10% of what they used to and potentially less than 1% in a year or so. They will still cost exactly as much to run though.


Nonsense. If almost everyone except you stopped mining tomorrow, it would barely affect the price. The only thing that would really change is that you would make a killer profit. The opposite is much more likely though.


Just realize that your chances of making a profit depend almost entirely on how many others will take their chances. You might get lucky, if you ordered asics early and get your asic before most others,  but my gut feeling is that people are and will continue to overbuy mining equipment creating a loss for everyone.


Since you dont seem to understand even the basics, thats only due to luck and the fact BTC has been going up almost consistently.  As long as you kept holding at least some BTC, it was pretty damn hard to make a loss.

This. I lol'ed so hard when I saw the original thread. $3.9 per btc of mining costs for 'the next few years'? More like till the next difficulty adjustment...

If you really know the mechanism of mining, you should know that your hyper-profiting would not last long: not because of dropping of BTC/USD rate, but a skyrocket of difficulty

No, he's just pointing out that the price of BTC has no discernable connection to the price of mining them. Those two statistics have never aligned in a meaningful way, nor should they, logically speaking. The comment about exiting mining was simply a dramatic way of saying "You're doing it wrong".
Again, the price of BTC has nothing to do with the number of people mining them, so no it would not. It would just mean that there were fewer people splitting the rewards.
By all means continue mining, my only advice is never to be comfortable with the knowledge you have.