Topic: What is your take on Mt. Gox refund ? - page 2. (Read 476 times)

Last time I heard that Gox was finally about to release the coins was last year and they were about to do it by the end of 2022.

Nothing like that happens without a reason and I believe there's a group of people and media outlets that actively suppress the price of bitcoin by scaring people away with news of incoming dumps, whale addresses waking up, FTX coins being prepared for sale and so on. Why are they doing it? The simplest explanation is that they want to keep the price low before the ETFs are approved.

Most people who were waiting for their coins for 10 years are used to waiting. Dumping it all before the halving wouldn't be the smartest thing to do and they know it. What's another 6 months for someone who held for 10 years? Most people are going to spend some and keep the rest. At least that's what I'd do.

Looking at the year’s gap, how do they intend on carrying out this refunds, considering the fact that not all of the victims will be able to get access to the refund information, many might be deceased, and some lost interest to the internet as I believe most of those victims might be old by now as they will be on the edge of testing any new thing back then.

On the aspect of the effect which this kind of news is going to cause on the price of bitcoin, base on the time of the news and the price of bitcoin today we can see that the price of Bitcoin has added some positive energy to how it was the past few days, which if it was as it use to be before, news like this in regard to the volume of bitcoin which is to be distributed over to some folks who might appears to be hungry sellers, we could have been seeing a price drop. But since it didn’t happen that way, which means we are stronger than ever, and even if those who will be lucky to reclaim their funds happens to sell off all that they will receive, the price of bitcoin will only be shake a little and with time which I believe won’t take long it will resurface up again, this is just my own little prediction.

This is not the first time that bitcoin price have been predicted to fall due to the consequences of the return of lost money on the Mt. GOX exchange after the crash. Promises to return this money to the previous owners were voiced repeatedly, but they have not yet been returned and each time they delayed this moment. I’m afraid, to the chagrin of those waiting, next month they will not get back what they lost and the price of bitcoin will not fall (at least for the reason described by OP). What about this news - https://decrypt.co/156498/ftx-gets-approval-to-sell-bitcoin-ethereum-solana? Maybe we should be wary of a collapse of bitcoin because of this?

To me it will definitely affect the market negatively. It's The demand and supply of coin in the crypto market that determine the price. The lesser the coin the higher the value. If this numbers of bit coin comes to the market, the victim of the hack Mt. GOX will start to sell. Because a long awaiting opportunity has come. So when they start selling the price of btc Will gradually start falling. And other investors that are waiting for Bitcoin to clinb $70-100k will also start selling ontil Bitcoin will reduce to a lesser price. People who sees it as an opportunity will start buying on dip and it will take time for the market to recover maybe few years later.

I've heard the Mt.Gox discussion with the refund but until now there is still no news, I suspect it will not be in the near future but wait a few more years.

Don't fully expect them to return it, it's like a lie even though there have been several other statements.

Are you worried about the potential price? It's not going to happen, for example FTX will be selling assets for weeks to come will there be an overreaction from the market? For me this is part of the FUD that is trying to weaken their mentality but the reality is that it will not happen in the near future.

It is a good and also a challenging news. It is good that people who lost their funds will be able to get it back. These refunds will be a big financial relief to some of them who are going through financial problems. It will also debunk the claim or fear that most people have that cryptocurrencies are unrecoverable. This might make people build confidence in the bitcoin space. I am also speculating that it is not all the victims that will dump their coin, some of them might keep hodling it.

The predicted resultant dump will also have a positive and negative effect. It will not favor investors who are projecting to sell their coins during the period of the drop in price due to the dump. But it will be an opportunity for long-term investors to buy more coins at a cheaper price. But as it has always been the case the price will recover but I can't predict when.

I never trust any centralized site because they're just giving fake promise, this refund plan might be an another bullshit.

I think someone which was a victim from Mt Gox should need to post in this forum if Mt Gox is really distribute the money, hearing a news or from untrusted source are nothing as the medias always want to report news as much as possible.

It's 5 billion and the size is irrelevant to the market cap.
For example, the 500 billion is made out of these coins too and at least 10% of it is made from easily mined coins that have never been moved, so it's not like people have poured till now 500 billion into Bitcoin. And more importantly, what matters is not the virtual value of those coins, but how much money is available right now for further investments. Do you think there are 5 billion waiting on line to gulp those coins at any moment?

Cause if there aren't and let's say just half of this awaits in buying orders then go to the largest pair and do a simulation what a 5000 not 100k BTC BTC dump would cause !



There is no longer a "them" or an "exchange" the funds are overseen by a trustee appointed by the court, and nobody from the former exchange hs any say in it anymore.

I think it's wonderful if the victims get some of their lost funds back, and we, as a community, should focus on being supportive of such a decision and hopeful that it'll promote similar steps in other exit scam crypto exchange situations. If victims get their money, there's no reason to believe that they'll all decide to sell their long-awaited BTC now, at the same time, on the same exchanges. Some will sell immediately, some will wait for some time, some will hodl. Some will use local exchanges, some will use international ones. I think that in the end there won't be a major dump to affect the global market.

It's not a huge dump, geesh. 500 million against a 500 billion market cap timed out over weeks.

Peoples reaction to the news I would suspect be greater than the actual event.

Buy

Many news sources will want to keep updating the victims about the funds that may end up not refund since all of these news is carrying different refund date, perhaps we will await the official announcement from the team itself to know if there is hope of refund.

I don’t know but I didn’t trust them and they might end up not repaying the victims since they know that their exchange has already lose its reputation in the cryptocurrency space.

I'm rather curious what makes you think the price will immediately bounce back after this?
The price is going down right now and has been doing so, another influx of coins to be sold on the market for sure it will make it go lower, so what would cause the pump again, and why was not happening prior to this, like a bump back to 30k or 35k?

Asking cause I've heard that at 40 at 35 at 30 and here we are still not bouncing and if this continues for sure almost everyone that is in profit over MtGox will dump, it's been 10 years, some of those that had coins at MtGox had been retired, look at the age of some of the early investors that were around that time, Gavin is 57! Andreas is 51, Saylor is 58, Tim Draper is 65!!!!! A lot will not wait for the "recovery" and if that is 4 years in the making do you think they will give a damn anymore?

From everything that could be read, not only will payments be possible in BTC and some shitcoin, but the victims could also opt for the payment option in fiat. In addition, it should be noted that not everyone will be paid at once, and considering the Japanese efficiency in this case, I would not be surprised if the whole thing takes years.

I think I could coin a saying that would read "God forbid that your CEX gets hacked, and even less if that CEX is in Japan".

As far as I know, Mt.gox will pay in many different coins, not just BTC, and it all depends on the victim's choice.  but if those who choose bitcoin and decide to sell their bitcoins immediately after receiving them, there is nothing to regret because if you compare bitcoin prices in 2014 and now they have actually made a very significant profit.  remember that taking profits is never wrong.  but if they don't need the money urgently, continuing to hold should really be considered because bitcoin's upside potential is still huge.

I think they will further delay the refunding process. Like they did before. According to my information, the last deadline for selection purposes was Jan 10, then it changed to March 10 then it increased to July 31, and then after the trustee increased the selection process dates to 30 September 2023. And who knows if they still increase the dates after Sep 30. If they do increase the dates then we might not see the distribution of funds in October.

Besides all that, we all know that only rumors have put bad impact on the market, then imagine what would happen if the distribution really took place, the market would definitely go for a dump. And even many big analysis are also saying the same thing. Because people are so frustrated right now, and after getting the funds back they might try to book some profit. I don't know why the following analyst said that:
If the victims are to get funds back in the form of BTC then the value must be the same of course. This means the value in dollars will be increased till now.

Maybe that's why people are saying that victims will sell off their BTC after receiving them. But I think those who are Ok (mostly people will be OK till now, as if they can live for 9 years, then they might be in at good state now.) but besides that most who have to stabilized their financial life might try to hold those BTC, but those who are under huge debt might want to lower it, or maybe if someone is in an emergency then they might also try to sell their BTC. Point is, market will make a big dump but it will be temporary so, holders won't mind it but traders will.

He has just said that he will refund. But his actions are still questionable. Price of those many Bitcoins were different at 2014 and now it’s different, if we see then it’s almost 20x the price. I don’t think he will be able to return these many at once. Moreover it’s not guranteed that the users who will get the Bitcoins as refund will sell it instantly. They might try their luck and hold it for the next bull run.

The users may likely sell their coins. Mt. Gox was hacked in 2014 and the price of bitcoin as at that time was significantly low. If bitcoin price after the hack was $37 and it plummeted 23%, that means the price before the hack was $45.51. If you compare that amount to the price of bitcoin today which is $26300, people will want to seel for profit. That is a huge profit. This can lead to a price drop but which might not be much.

Some holders, especially the short term holders and some traders will because of this sell some of their coins which will lead to more price fall. But what that will later happen is that some.people that are waiting for the price of bitcoin to fall, they will see it as an opportunity to buy. Some people that did not sell their coins may buy more, some people that DCA will see it as an opportunity to buy more and some holders and traders althat sell will buy. All these will result in the price of bitcoin to increase again.

I read that Cointelegraph article too, and I have to admit, it was about time Mt. Gox showed some responsibility. If you ask me, such massive refunds always have a catch. Remember, we're talking about 142,000 BTC, not just pocket change.

Now, lets entertain the thought of the potential dump youre fearing. If these victims, quite understandably irritated by the years of waiting, decide to sell their refunded Bitcoins, were looking at a potential price dip. But hey, its Bitcoin. It has been through worse and bounced back. The market is far more mature now. Still, for those victims, Id advise not to get too trigger-happy with the sell button. The essence of Bitcoin is its future potential, not a temporary price tag.

Every two months, news sites include this news. I don't know if it is FUD, or they cannot find new news, or there is an update to the news.

https://www.coindesk.com/business/2023/02/16/mt-goxs-2-largest-creditors-pick-payout-option-that-wont-force-bitcoin-selloff-sources/
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-mt-gox-repayment-date-looming-is-bitcoin-in-trouble
https://capital.com/mt-gox-refund-repayment-details-deadline
https://coingeek.com/mt-gox-repayments-to-start-in-march-2023-nine-years-after-collapse/

These are links to four news reports that gave four different timings and all of them were not correct. Google contains hundreds of such articles.
The only constant is that they may get their money, but the question remains when.

That wouldn't be possible for Mt. Gox to refund hacked user assets at the same time, of course they will refund in stages because their finances are also limited. In this period of time, most customers who get some of their assets back will probably sell their assets or they will hold them in their wallets. And because refunds are carried out in stages, when some users sell their bitcoins it won't have much of an impact on the crypto market in my opinion, in fact it will be like nothing has happened.