What % of the Total Market Cap of Gold should Bitcoin represent?

Biodom

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Quote from: Biodom on December 14, 2016, 03:47:51 PM

Maybe it should be simply proportional to the number of users. I have no way of measuring how many people are actively using gold as a store of value.
Let's assume, at least 700 mil (400-500 mil adult women in India plus everybody else a little).
There are probably less than 10 mil bitcoin users, judging by the number of active wallets.
Therefore, 10/700X7tril=$100bil fair market cap value, resulting in "fair" current price of btc=$5882.
As we can see, price is quite different from fair, which is reflecting much less history in being a store of value (7 years vs thousands).

Check it out...It took less than 10 mo to get to my 'fair price'.
Use the outlined formula to get to the fair value.
there are at least 20 mil bitcoin users now (since coinbase has 12 mil users and there are 18.5 mil blockchain.info wallets)
Plugging the numbers in my formula: (20/700)X7.7=220bil or $13333, which should be set within a year, but probably sooner.
I am curious if this would work. As far as gold %, it would be (20/700)x100=2.85% lower bound (assuming that bitcoins utility attraction and gold's value through history cancels each other for now, but not forever).

fabiorem

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200%.

amacar2

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Market cap of bitcoin can easily go over $1 trillion so I will say 10% marketcap of gold is easy to reach for bitcoin within 1-2 years from here and yes it can reach upto $100k per bitcoin or 30% marketcap of gold.

Bitcoin is considered as very lucrative store of value just like people used to think about gold on 70s-80s. Bitcoin is digital gold of 21st century.

erre

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Quote from: Meuh6879 on June 17, 2017, 07:51:08 PM

gold holders are already in 1% ... Grin

We are getting there really faster than anyone could imagine a couple of months ago

Gold market caps sucks, seems that we will pass it in 3 years or so...

freedomno1

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It depends on if Cryptocurrency is the new gold of the modern era, if people switch over and are convinced of it then it could well supplement then replace gold as the best way of storing value in the internet age especially if governments decide to create reserves based on a basket of both global currencies and cryptocurrencies.
But for now I'll go with 10% of the market cap of gold since we already have 1%

.

Meuh6879

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gold holders are already in 1% ... Grin

Sevvero

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Quote from: BitcoinBarrel on December 14, 2016, 10:51:18 AM

it is still waiting for billionaires and all VCs to invest into it, than price can grow exponentially.

Listen, laggard, you forgot that the Facebook twins and many billionaires have stashed up Bitcoin already.

Unlike you they are not laggards. This phase is already over. Don't be naive thinking top dogs will wait to buy your bags at top JUST LOL

pitham1

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Quote from: BitcoinBarrel on December 15, 2016, 11:24:17 AM

Quote from: Kprawn on December 15, 2016, 09:57:38 AM

How many of the Gold bugs have ever held their gold or even seen it? The supposed gold, held by the US government has not been audited by a
independent auditor for years. Who knows if it is even there anymore. Huh

I would rather buy physical gold and hide it somewhere, than buying a
piece of paper that reflects a portion of my gold in a digital ledger, that can be wiped in a instant. Roll Eyes

It's funny you mention that, because there are rumors that the Gold in Fort Knox is actually Gold-plated Tungsten.

Fort Knox could actually be empty for all you know.

We are talking about the total value of gold in circulation, while we should be taking about the value of all gold-related derivatives. If you look at the value of all e-gold, gold bonds, and multiple other derivatives of gold, the value will shoot up. So the value of all Bitcoin is minuscule in comparison.

oblomov

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Quote from: BitcoinBarrel on December 14, 2016, 10:51:18 AM

Estimates put the Total Market Cap of Gold at around $7 Trillion.

Right now the Total Market Cap of Bitcoin is around $12 Billion roughly 0.15% of Gold.

If there were 20,000,000 Bitcoins valued at $100,000 that would equal $2 Trillion almost 30% the Market Cap of Gold. What is realistic?

I can definitely see how a $10,000-$20,000 Bitcoin may be possible. But you never know, Bitcoin is a revolutionary and convenient store of value in this digital era compared to Gold which is heavy, easy to steal, and more difficult to store, sell/transfer.

I was talking with a professional money manager (AUM of ~USD 10B) last week. He is bullish on BTC as an asset class.

He says that an upper estimate for the ultimate value of BTC is that it could equal the nominal value of all assets (the sum of government, corporate, and personal debt), which is about $66T.

To me, this seems like lunacy- it would necessitate a price of $4.3M per BTC. But it is of course a speculative upper bound.

In the next 5-10 years, I think $10K BTC is possible, if not likely.

BitcoinBarrel

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Quote from: Kprawn on December 15, 2016, 09:57:38 AM

How many of the Gold bugs have ever held their gold or even seen it? The supposed gold, held by the US government has not been audited by a

independent auditor for years. Who knows if it is even there anymore. Huh

I would rather buy physical gold and hide it somewhere, than buying a

piece of paper that reflects a portion of my gold in a digital ledger, that can be wiped in a instant. Roll Eyes

It's funny you mention that, because there are rumors that the Gold in Fort Knox is actually Gold-plated Tungsten.

Kprawn

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How many of the Gold bugs have ever held their gold or even seen it? The supposed gold, held by the US government has not been audited by a

independent auditor for years. Who knows if it is even there anymore. Huh

I would rather buy physical gold and hide it somewhere, than buying a

piece of paper that reflects a portion of my gold in a digital ledger, that can be wiped in a instant. Roll Eyes

1Referee

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If you purely focus on the market cap of Gold, then I find it to be a tremendous achievement if we even manage to settle at the 1% mark. 1% is +$70,000,000,000 which will require a whole lot more fresh money to flow into the Bitcoin economy. If we somehow find a way to convince traditional investors and other serious minded (financial wise) to not only look at Gold as being a store of value tool, or a hedge against whatever economical situation, then it may not be that unrealistic after all. By that time we might even get to touch the $100,000,000,000 market cap. But at that point I think the government will stand up and force through certain sanctions to push Bitcoin back.

talkbitcoin

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All I know is that I know nothing.

comparing bitcoin and gold is never correct in my opinion because they actually have nothing in common. specially if you are comparing them in market cap!

there are 1.64e+11 gram gold available (approximately 181,881 ton)
1 gram gold costs 36.23 USD
gold has been around for hundreds of years.

there are 2.1e+7 bitcoin or better said 2.1e+15 satoshi available with the smallest amount 1 satoshi worth 0.000007 USD

if bitcoin is around as long as gold and it grows with the speed it is growing right now it will have a ridiculously large market cap and there are enough bitcoin units (satoshi) available to support that.

bitebits

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Quote from: European Central Bank on December 14, 2016, 05:08:27 PM

Quote from: ~Bitcoin~ on December 14, 2016, 01:03:47 PM

Sound realistic but to reach this point it may take few more decades, for this atleast 30% of gold investors need to shift towards bitcoin which i think is possible in future.

the real heavyweights in gold are surely governments. will they be switching to btc any time soon? i'm gonna go for a no.

That is a good point actually. How big is the market cap of gold with the amount of gold deducted being in the possession of governments?
I assume there are open statistics available somewhere.

European Central Bank

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Quote from: ~Bitcoin~ on December 14, 2016, 01:03:47 PM

Sound realistic but to reach this point it may take few more decades, for this atleast 30% of gold investors need to shift towards bitcoin which i think is possible in future.

the real heavyweights in gold are surely governments. will they be switching to btc any time soon? i'm gonna go for a no.

Biodom

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Maybe it should be simply proportional to the number of users. I have no way of measuring how many people are actively using gold as a store of value.
Let's assume, at least 700 mil (400-500 mil adult women in India plus everybody else a little).
There are probably less than 10 mil bitcoin users, judging by the number of active wallets.
Therefore, 10/700X7tril=$100bil fair market cap value, resulting in "fair" current price of btc=$5882.
As we can see, price is quite different from fair, which is reflecting much less history in being a store of value (7 years vs thousands).

~Bitcoin~

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Quote from: BitcoinBarrel on December 14, 2016, 10:51:18 AM

If there were 20,000,000 Bitcoins valued at $100,000 that would equal $2 Trillion almost 30% the Market Cap of Gold. What is realistic?

Sound realistic but to reach this point it may take few more decades, for this atleast 30% of gold investors need to shift towards bitcoin which i think is possible in future.

Quote from: BitcoinBarrel on December 14, 2016, 10:51:18 AM

I can definitely see how a $10,000-$20,000 Bitcoin may be possible. But you never know, Bitcoin is a revolutionary and convenient store of value in this digital era compared to Gold which is heavy, easy to steal, and more difficult to store, sell/transfer.

$10,000 can be realistic speculation for bitcoin price to be after next 10 years or before 10 years. Everything is possible bitcoin marketcap is so small and it is still waiting for billionaires and all VCs to invest into it, than price can grow exponentially.

cengsuwuei

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is compare market capt gold and bitcoin is diference
gold is real commodity and regulated all country, devisa capital country another dollar
all country need gold to devisa capital another dollar, and all people use gold too ring and more

bitcoin user only online not oflline, and only make money online know about bitcoin, and not maker money online use bitcoin
publisher adsense never use bitcoin

if bitcoin regulated and can use offline, ready physic , i think marketcap can equal or miniumum can get 25% from gold

Ayers

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1% imho, is more than enough to make bitcoin really successful, 1% of 7T, it's 70B, this is enough to have 6 x current value of bitcoin, so it would be 5k, if we increase to 10% for the future it might be better when demand will be very high and adoption on a larger scale, and 50k for a single bitcoin might be better at that point

JimboToronto

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Quote from: European Central Bank on December 14, 2016, 11:17:17 AM

the youth of today seem very happy to abandon old crock stuff like privacy and cash.

That is very scary. It's easy to understand the gullible being brainwashed by advertising into using credit and debit cards, even though it means putting your money at risk by keeping it in banks. Voluntarily sacrificing privacy is another story, yet people now seem perfectly OK with divulging their identity and personal details to any government or other corporations, even sleazy "services" like Facebook.

Aren't liberty and freedom the reasons for fighting the fascists and communists?

Privacy and anonymity are the cornerstones of freedom and liberty.

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