I have known Bitcoin for a while, and I think I understand the value and significance of Bitcoin. But from an economic point of view, I would like to know what role Bitcoin will play in the face of superpowers like China and the United States in the future.
El Salvador has adopted Bitcoin as its country's legal tender. Panama, Colombia and Uruguay also seem to be interested in Bitcoin. Indeed, for some countries that have been unable to control their own economic development through macro-control, Bitcoin gives them another choice. When the volatility of fiat currency in one's own country has far surpassed that of Bitcoin, the biggest shortcoming of Bitcoin as a fiat currency no longer exists. This is a success in the history of Bitcoin, but how about superpower?
Now, the United States regards Bitcoin as an investment asset. China allows Bitcoin to be held but prohibits mining and trading. The world's largest and second-largest economies have very different attitudes towards Bitcoin. But as we all know, Satoshi Nakamoto's definition of Bitcoin is "A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System", and now people seem to be more inclined to define it as a reserve asset or a price anchor. But for the superpower, neither of these two definitions seems impossible. If Bitcoin is used as a currency for daily use, it will undoubtedly destroy the status of the RMB or the US dollar. If Bitcoin is used as a store of value similar to gold, due to the decentralization of Bitcoin, it is difficult to hoard a large amount of Bitcoin together. I am not a student of economics, and Bitcoin seems to be of little use to the current economic system.
I guess that in the coming decades, more and more African or Latin American countries will tend to use Bitcoin as their legal currency, which can help them resist the erosion of the US dollar. However, the Super Congress insisted on issuing its own legal currency and controlling its exchange rate with Bitcoin. I guess that for China, the final result may be to ask the public to hand over its bitcoin to the country and give it the equivalent value of CNY.
Most likely, bitcoin will not affect either supercountries or others. Let me explain.
Bitcoin is not a replacement for the financial system or an alternative development option for the financial structure of the state.
By the way, this is a reason to consider the moves of Venezuela, Panama, Colombia ill-considered - how can the financial system of a state be based on a speculative, unstable asset, with dubious price formation. This is political "infantilism".
The United States and major countries are likely to choose one or more of three options:
- prohibition as a means of payment
- recognition as an investment instrument by analogy with shares
- prohibition of any use.
And any of the options, in fact, nullifies the ability to influence GLOBALLY on some processes. Tell me - will the appearance of the shares of the new company greatly affect the supercountries in the future? The correct answer is NO. As long as the state has centralized control, it is the state that will regulate the market, economy, financial stability, and assets such as cryptocurrency can in no way influence this process.