I'll admit that the last few months have turned me into a pessimist, at least short-term. I'm in it for the long haul but to see so little progress when you're accustomed to it coming so rapidly raises questions. So - regarding this year:
Ever since the big run last December, "good news" has been scarce in my eyes. The only "good news" that is certain to happen this year is Overstock accepting BTC on orders internationally - what affect, if any, that will have on the world market is yet to be known. Now, a lot of people recently have been claiming that "Wall Street Money" is going to start pouring in relatively soon, but I have no idea what they're basing that off of. Keep in mind that this is the same group that produced dozens of "OMG OMG TO THA M00N" threads yesterday when BTC went up 30 bucks.
My confidence wanes.
I don't know what I'm asking. I guess the point of this thread is to get people to post positive things that actually have merit.
"To tha m00n" doesn't mean much without a citation.
Anyone got a pick-me-up? And a source?
I will answer your question.
For Bitcoin to go parabolic once again, it is going to require some kind of capital flight. That is Bitcoins real practical advantage over conventional finance. A means of circumventing a nations fiscal controls. This could happen at anytime. It has happened before in that April 2013 was attributed to capital flight from Cyprus and Dec 2013 was attributed largely to Chinese investors piling into Bitcoin in order as a means of circumventing their own countries capital controls. This is why the PBOC has given Bitcoin a bit of a disapproving frown and we have been in a bear market ever since.
Without a surge in capital flight interest, Bitcoin will trend back to where it would have been had China never entered the market to begin with, give or take a few hundred K's worth of stolen, seized, or court appropriated BTC or so. However, it is not as simple as that. People outside of Bitcoin view it as monstrously overvalued and dangerously volatile at the moment. People within Bitcoin however have greatly inflated sense of price expectations that are not possible under present conditions, but these inflated expectations help facilitate some tremendously rapid pump n dump efforts. Vast sums of money gladly piled into Bitcoin at $750, $540, $400, and sub $400. Recent counter trend recovery's have shown a figure well short of $750, and then just around bang on $540 to now be sums where buying pressure in Bitcoin completely dries up. I am in no doubt that we will be able to add $400 to that list of important resistance points soon enough. Without some new and significant avenue of interest in Bitcoin, this patter of grinding bear market, dump, pump, dump and then yet more grinding bear market is set to continue until either Bitcoin gets so depressed that the pump n dump mechanics of the current market yields diminishing returns to the point of it just not being that worthwhile anymore; or until some X-Factor kicks in and the most likely X-Factor for me will be some kind of emergency capital flight out of a crisis stricken nation.
The increased adoption that people talk about for everyday legal purchases will take a very long time to gain traction, far longer than any Bitcoiner's patience can endure. This isn't like Facebook that entered onto the scene with practically no meaningful competition. The fiat currencies already have the 'medium of exchange' market well and truly tied up and are frankly much safer, easier, and more convenient to use for 99% of everyday purchases.
In summation, for Bitcoin to go on another bull-run, the demand has got to come-in and overturn the churning of the present manipulated pump n dump forces of the present overvalued and declining market. The only conceivable avenue of such interest at this point in time is capital flight. Therefore, if ya are all praying to get another Bitcoin bull-run anytime soon, then ya are all praying for economic collapse, misery, and suffering, in some non US hegemony compliant economy that is getting beaten with some geo-political stick.
(i'm not chinese)