More details at https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1270918 and also at http://organofcorti.blogspot.com
I think one of the reasons people are leaving Deepbit since is that other people are leaving. People just do what other people are doing. They mined at Deepbit because everyone else did. Now they're leaving it because everyone else is. Well, that and the recent DDoS.
Also increased variance. Deepbit's proportional variance used to be extremely low. As the network hash rate grew and Deepbit didn't, miners have been able to notice an increased variance with each difficulty increase. It's not that miners see other people leaving (directly), it's that Deepbit's speed remaining mostly stationary while the network has increased significantly is causing a large rise in how much their payouts under proportional vary.
That's quite a good point - I hadn't thought of that but of course that's exactly what prop miners at Deepbit will notice.
Well, I expected that too, but not this week for some reason.