It's not going to change at the halving. 3/4 of all bitcoin that will ever exist will be circulation by then, so 12.5 vs 25 btc a block means little. If the price of bitcoin is affected, it will be far in advance of the actual halving, because it is a well known event and everybody will have some speculation or theory of how it will affect price and think they are the smartest first player.
but the real supply will be affected after the halving.
All publicly available information (including next halving) is already factored in the current price.
btw
the comment above me says that halving never happen disprove your argument
Let me clarify how English works:
Question: "What the price of 1 btc to usd after the next halving? (topic subject)"
Answer: "It's not going to change at the halving."
The mining reward halves every 210000 blocks. The first time this happened was block 210000, 2012-11-28 15:24:38.
Here is a graph of the Bitcoin exchange price. It is an eight-month period centered around that date.
If you prefer to zoom out, here is a sixteen-month period:
Please identify the effect that Nov 28 had on the price....vs a hundred other factors. There were threads in 2011 just like this one wondering the effect of a halfing on price. If anything, the anticipation that price would go up caused people to buy, causing the price to go up.
