Topic: What type of reg would you build for 120k? - page 2. (Read 2646 times)

Actually, what is almost guaranteed to happen is either (1) Bitcoin fails completely and drops to $0, or (2) Bitcoin continues succeeds and naturally continues to appreciate in value to $100, $1000, and more. The chance that the exchange rate remains stagnant, say between $5-50, in the next decade (we are talking long term investment here) is almost zero. Mark my words, it will be either scenario (1) or (2).

It's basic math. If Bitcoin succeeds, and if its economy grows by 10x, 100x, etc, then its exchange rate should increase by 10x, 100x, etc, because there is a predetermined finite number of coins. (Except that we have mined only half the coins up to this day, but you get my point). The question is how quickly will Bitcoin succeeds? Will it significantly rise in value over 0.5 years, 1 year, 3 years, or more?

My personal advice, with $120k: at this very moment I would buy some BTC and keep the rest to either buy more BTC if its exchange rate drops (to average down), or to be first in line when ordering the next generation of ASICs (eg. when a vendor announces 28nm, or significantly cuts the prices of current devices). It is already too late to order the current generation of devices. Customers in front of you in the line will spike the difficulty up. One of the flaws in your math assuming a difficulty of 100M is that you assume it will stay constant at 100M for a straight 6 months while you are recouping your MiniRig investment. It will instead continue to rise during these 6 months because vendors will slash prices, offer better hardware, etc.

Buy FPGA mini-rigs (from someone who has them in-hand), and then buy the SC upgrades.

It all depends on how quickly you expect the network to grow. I'm personally looking at a difficulty of 100,000,000 sometime next summer, after BFL ships all their preorders, and all orders between now and then (aka they're all caught up). You could expect more than that, or you could expect less. It's all speculation.

I went to http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/ and entered in these variables:
Difficulty of 100,000,000
Speed of 6TH/s
Power usage of 6000W
Time frame of 6 months
Hardware cost of 120k
Estimated break even point: 152 days.
Net profit after 6 months: 21309.79 USD

Difficulty of 50,000,000
Hardware break even: 71 days

Difficulty of 150,000,000
Hardware break even: 245 days

You can worry about the profitability all you want. Please show me numbers where it doesn't make sense.

nothing in the world is guaranteed but it all depends on what your more comfortable with...trying to mine and hope you get your ROI back or buy in and hope price goes up...

He seems to forget the lead time on these BFL units.  By the time you get them, it would worry about the profitability.   

You can't guarantee that that will happen. In fact, you run a giant risk that the price will fall, and you would lose money. What would you do if the price dropped down to $20 or even $10 again?

My suggestion: buy 4 BFL MiniRigs. It's what I would do if I had that kind of cash.

That will give you ~6TH/s, and pull about 6kW of power. For comparison, 120k would buy ~80 Avalon units, which would give you ~5.3TH/s, and pull almost 50kW of power.

just buy 120k in btc...wait til the end of the year when it's at 100usd and sell = profit

I'll put that stuff in a design radio case for you for only 5k. "Box with fan" miner instead of Jalapeno is 1k cheaper but will be delivered earler. I can also talk to BFL, maybe they have one of the old asics with the thermal conduction problems so you can light a cigar.

Tough question. If I were contracted by a company with a 120 kUSD budget, I would either first look to acquire a company like Avalon or put the money in a bank account. Buying a rig now is pretty much a waste of money, as the ASICs will arrive far to late to be profitable.

lol

A 3G mobile hotspot, a Raspberry Pi running as host and a single BFL Jalapeno all operating from the cigarette lighter in an Italian made sportscar.
Now that I think about it the first three components are optional.

what type of rig would you guys build for 120k ?