Topic: What will be the condition of bitcoin in future? (Read 1330 times)

Bitcoin will be more stable than fiat currencies because they are not.Bitcoin will have healthy growth and adoption and will not collapse as it is still at early age and didn't reach at peak so it has to see peak.Mining will be profitable as it will become very valuable as it will be used as core/base currencies to set value of other digital currencies in future.

Our hopes are based on the mass adoption of Bitcoin to replace the block reward and generating more transaction fee's to make it still viable for people to continue mining.

This is why Bitcoin is seen as still being in it's experimental beta phase. We do not know, if that will happen and if the fee's will be enough to reward the miners or make it

economically fees-able for them to still profit from providing all that hashing power. I guess we will know more after the next halving, next year.   

There might be less miners mining, because of the removal of the block reward. Hopefully by that time the transaction volume will be scaled up enough that fees will make it worthwhile.

There will not be any new block reward as incentive for the miner except those coming from the transaction fee. Price of bitcoin will have to scale up accordingly. I think a lot of things can change especially with such a long time span of over a hundred years. So it's hard to imagine what it would be like by then.

Agree with you.Second scenario may happen even before 21 mln will be mined,technology doesnt sleep,will be new developments with new cost less supply

After the full 21 millions blocks will be mined Bitcoin will be more stable and will be used widely like fiat currency.Also it will be highly valued and as someone already mentioned miners will earn more at high profit to secure and stable the network.

i really dont have any idea with this 

I would not worry about that, we will be long dead before that will happen


This is full version, but this is just constantly growing and upgrading, bitcoin in 10 years could be completely different than it is now.


It depends on the market, mindset of poeple and many other factors, hard to tell

FIAT currencies are stable? Since when? Are you talking about volatility of bitcoin? It can be stopped by mass adoption.

i think  bitcoin will change status from "beta" to "full version"

that is the same as saying in 125 years there will still be cars, but they won't bear any technical resemblance to what's around today.

125 years ago we were almost still using horses.

Let's hope it evolves in a way that is good for us.

Although, I don't think it will be bitcoin that will be the leading coin by then. It will we replaced by something newer, more fancy, easier and more secure.

We are all bitcoiners here and we would all like that Bitcoin does succeed and that it stays as the first crypto option in the future. But let's not kid ourselves, this might not happen.

If Bitcoin doesn't improve and it doesn't serve it's purpose the best it will be replaced of something better comes around. I strongly believe that the blockchain technology is here to stay in this or that for, but will it be necessarily Bitcoin? I sure hope so!

In 125 years there might still be something named Bitcoin. I don't think it'll bear any technical resemblance to what's around today.

The idea of sending unforgeable money through the ether isn't going away any time soon. Bitcoin needs to reach a useful place in the coming years and then slowly develop with the times.

i will be dead.

When a solo miner (or mining pool) creates a new block of transactions to solve, they include a special transaction that pays the reward to themselves.  This special transaction doesn't spend any bitcoins, and only receives bitcoins.  Therefore they essentially come into existence out of nothing more than the miner (or pool) saying that they now exist in the block.  The protocol that ALL full nodes on the peer-to-peer network are all running requires that the reward transaction (frequently called a "coinbase transaction") be less than or equal to the current subsidy amount plus the sum of all transaction fees in the block.  If a miner attempts to create a transaction that pays themselves more than that amount, then every peer that they attempt to send the block to will recognize the block as being invalid and will refuse to accept it, refuse to relay it to other nodes, and refues to add it to their own block chain.  The protocol requires that software implements the calculation of the current block subsidy by:

• Determining the number of "halvings" by dividing the current block height by 210000 and truncating any decimal portion
• Starting with a binary representation of 5000000000 satoshis
• Perform a binary right shift on the 5000000000 satoshi value the number of times that the "halvings" indicates

The subsidy is not related with mining difficulty at all.

The subsidy starts at 5000000000 satoshis, and is cut in half (and any decimal portion thrown out) every 210000 blocks.

The difficulty is determined by calculating how much time it took to solve 2016 blocks:

• If it took more than 20160 minutes then the blocks are occurring too slowly.  The difficulty is reduced proportionally to increase the speed at which blocks are solved.
• If it took less than 20160 minutes then the blocks are occurring too quickly.  The difficulty is increased proportionally to decrease the speed at which blocks are solved.

In your scenario, there is less mining occurring.  The difficulty adjusts so that the same number of blocks are solved in any given amount of time.  Since there is less mining, each of the remaining mining participants is getting a larger portion of the bitcoins that are available.  If that still isn't enough profit, then even more miners will quit.  Eventually the system reaches an equilibrium where the percentage of the available bitcoins that each miner receives is enough for them to decide to continue mining.   


Certainly.

the future equivalent of the FED will convince everyone to do a hard fork to increase block rewards for a target inflation rate of 2%  

There is no possibility to secure the network without the miners? Perhaps there could be a system to reward people running nodes, and implement it as mining difficulty raises.

This is by far the most perfect explanation I ever received But I have few questions regarding your explanation:

1. How is this subsidy(newly generated coins) calculated and from where is this subsidy coming from? (I want to know the technical side of it)

2. Since the subsidy is somewhat related with mining difficulty, suppose in future, many pro-miners quit their mining operations due to very low or negative profit, so accordingly the difficulty should get lowered and will the subsidy rise due to that situation?

P.S. I know these are some noobish questions but please try to answer them!

i think in future the price increase to a very good level to help miners keep securing the network mentioning that fees have changes a couple of times in the past to be a reasonable price because of the price changes.

Well, considering Bitcoin will reach it's 21th million coin at about year 2140, im hoping that to reach full version (version 1.0) it takes a little bit less than that. I don't want to be a grandpa that is still waiting to use something out of the beta phase of Bitcoin, I hope the full version has arrived by then

It is clear that you haven't made any effort to understand how bitcoin works, or what the purpose of "mining" is.
The miners are creating blocks that set a permanent ordering of the transactions.  The proof-of-work that they supply makes any attempt to re-order any transactions that are more than a few blocks deep in the blockchain extremely expensive.

In exchange for providing this service to the network, they are rewarded with bitcoins.  Their reward consists of the sum of a block subsidy (newly created bitcoins) and all the transaction fees of all the transactions that they confirm in their block.

At the moment the block subsidy is 25 BTC, and the average fees are about 0.1736 BTC per block.

Every 210,000 blocks (approximately 4 years), the block subsidy is cut in half.  The next reduction will probably be in July of 2016 when the subsidy will be reduced to 12.5 BTC per block.  Then it will be reduced to 6.25 BTC per block about 4 years after that.

Meanwhile, as bitcoin becomes more popular, there will be more transactions, and those transaction may pay a higher value in fees.  Eventually the fees in the block will surpass the subsidy in the block. It is difficult to say exactly when this will happen, but it will probably happen sometime in the next 32 years.  Once that happens, perhaps we will stop calling them "miners" and instead use a name that describes what they are actually being paid to do.  Perhaps something like "transaction processors".

The block subsidy will continue to be cut in half every 4 years until somewhere around the year 2140 when the subsidy will be 0.00000001 BTC block.  Then with the next reduction, then subsidy will be reduced to 0 BTC.  Blocks will continue to be created, and the "miners" will continue to receive the sum of the transaction fees as their reward, there just won't be any subsidy added into the block any more.


As for your specific questions:

1.  No.  The "beta" vs. "full" designation has nothing to do with the block reward at all.

2. It may collapse long before the year 2140, or it may continue long after the year 2140.  That's essentiall impossible to predict at this time, and anyone that gives you any prediction is just making a random guess.  You could get just as accurate of an answer by flipping a coin.

3. It will either be stable long before the last subsidy is paid out, or it will never be stable.  There is nothing about reducing the subsidy from 0.00000001 BTC to 0 BTC that would suddenly stabilize anything.