Topic: What will be the next bubble's hook? (Read 794 times)

OR, what if the next "hook" is simply the allure of "making millions" by HODLING Bitcoin, like it was with us some years ago?

Be prepared to educate them before franky1 does. Hahaha.

I don't really know what will make the price to go up, maybe more hypes will do. But I do think that as long as the price keeps on going up, a lot of people will take interest and start to rush in (FOMO). I don't there as anyone that would like to miss out as the price reaches a high price, so they will start buying and that will be pushing the price upwards. Or maybe there will be a project that will cause the spark and make the price to boom. I have seen some people that are having doubts and some are saying that it is going to be in 2020 due to the hard fork

I haven't kept up with the STO phenomenon. With "utility token" ICOs the issuers were clearly trying to dodge securities laws so they could openly offer the tokens to anyone.

Since a STO is obviously a security offering, how do most of them approach US investors? Do they only allow accredited investors, or otherwise prohibit them? Accredited investor status is not easy to achieve for regular retail folks.

I think the adoption could be a cause for the correction. I mean it will have to be an insane price to even get to that point but after a certain number we would have to consider how much bitcoin is used daily and where you can use it and seeing it not that common in most of the world will make the price go down eventually.

People will come to a conclusion of "well I have this much bitcoin that I can't do anything with it, maybe I should sell it and actually buy something". In the end profiting is great but at a certain point people will say that they would rather spend some of that profit than actually keep it on their bank accounts, I would love to a billionaire one day but I am definitely going to buy great stuff until I became one as well. So, that adoption could cause some issues later down the road.

I believe ICOs, but in the form of IEOs which is showing signs that "they're not permanently toast", but a cyclical, or seasonal phenomenon in the market. If bubbles can happen, they will happen.

prolly you are right, there is a lot of buzz about STO in last months..

Yes that's true. We can implement smart contracts through various BIPs which can be introduced in the future. But the primary goal of bitcoin was to use them as a payment system rather than being a tool for developers to develop smart contracts. Ethereum was designed for developers and Solidity is much more easier to learn and master when comparing with C++. We can have BIPs to help bitcoin support smart contracts but I am not really sure how well it could be executed successfully over time. Ethereum moved from being a developer's tool to a scammers tool during the 2017 price pump.

This is like comparing other payment coins with bitcoin. Neo is good but they are backed by Chinese government and they are much more look like a distributed blockchain network rather than being decentralized. With ICOs rising at an enormous rate with Ethereum behind them, Neo and other smart contract blockchains are still being in the initial stages. We can never consider Ethereum as money or a wannabe money unless being used in ICOs to buy worthless tokens, they are designed for being a tool and probably like a research project. Ethereum has been popularized due to its use in scamming investors and churning out money from the newbies. 

What are you trying to say about the Great Depression exactly? Many economists theorize the gold standard greatly exacerbated the Depression.

What exactly do you think is going to happen in the next crash? You keep talking about unsustainable debt but what do believe is actually going to happen?


FYI, the Fed has been engaging in quantitative easing policies since the 1930s. Nothing here is really unprecedented.

https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/14110_-_bordo_-_exiting_from_low_interest_rates_to_normality_-_an_historical_perspective.pdf
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing#History

A collapse today would act nothing like the 1929 crash and depression of the 30s. The difference is back then we were on the gold standard, and today fiat has nothing backing it - that and there is an insurmountable national debt that grows at the astonishing rate of a trillion+ every year. The rest of the world isn't doing much better.
You sound intelligent, but clearly underestimate the severity of the current situation. Quantitative easing is the last desperate attempt to prolong the inevitable total economic crash. Anybody who sees it as any kind of a fix is really stupid or really in denial.

Bitcoin is still inflationary. Supply is currently inflating at 3-4% annual.

A limited supply commodity will be a better hedge than speculative assets, sure, but even gold crashed during the 2008 crisis. In an economic contraction, money flows out of everything.


I would draw a big distinction between a traditional stock market crash or recession and a fiat currency collapse. In the former scenario, cash is king and even commodity monies fall in value. In the latter scenario, we would see money flow into hard commodity money (like gold....and Bitcoin, if people have enough faith in it). But it's much harder to predict when the USD might collapse. I've been hearing goldbugs predict imminent collapse for multiple decades.

Bitcoin is a completely new and experimental asset class. It's only a decade old and it's still prone to horrible bugs (like the inflation bug patched last year). It has extremely strong theoretical properties as money but it's still fairly untested, especially at great scale. As such, people naturally view it as a speculative asset rather than a hedge asset.

We think that. However it doesn't matter what we think about it. We're all too far down the rabbit hole.

The rest of the world does not feel that way. We'll sure as shit know when it does. I reckon at the very least that significant and widespread a change in perception is a decade away at the absolute extreme minimum.

I say this because the stock market is pumped with fiat that is becoming more and more inflated as well as quantitative easing fiat (money created out of thin air then added to a deficit that will never be paid back). Bitcoin on the other hand is deflationairy - it's fixed supply makes it a great hedge. I'm not sure why you guys treat bitcoin like it's just another asset class - the properties of it make it the perfect hedge in a crashing economy.
I believe we are in the final stages of economic collapse - quantitative easing will only work for so long until the dollar value collapses, taking the stock market with it. Thanks alot Ronald Reagan, the devil himself took office and put our economy on a path to ruin by financing tax cuts and heavy military spending with future debt that has done nothing but grow out of control since. Fuck you Reagan, the worst GD excuse for a president we've ever had.

That's one day of price action. I'm talking about the last decade. Let's zoom out and compare the long term charts:





I see two raging bull markets. In other words, Bitcoin has never experienced a real stock market crash or recession. So I'm pretty hesitant to assume the long term correlation will turn negative if/when that actually happens.


I totally agree. Bitcoin is still considered extremely speculative compared to traditional investments and hedges. Speculative assets generally don't fare well during recessions because investors and businesses are unwinding speculative positions, not building them.

We'd require a proper recession type thing to get a feel. A day or two here and there means nothing.

If it happened ten years from now BTC has a chance of standing separately from it. If it's within the next couple of years I think it'll take a shit just like everything else. To most it's not a hedge yet. It's a toy. And they're the first thing to be sold.

I think you are wrong - yesterday the dow tanked 600 points and bitcoin went up nearly a grand. I absolutely stand by my assertion that when the stock market tanks money will flow into bitcoin.

altcoins generally offer nothing the real world cares about. however, that was true in 2013 before they bubbled. it was also true in 2017 before they bubbled. so i wouldn't get too hung up on this line of thinking. fundamentals simply don't matter in a bubble.

all that matters is hype, greed, the perception of supply scarcity, and a thin ask side. when i started trading in early 2013, i immediately opted for litecoin because it was so "cheap" and thus i assumed it had much more upside. do you have any idea how many newcomers have this mentality? they're not coming for bitcoin, they're coming for the next bitcoin.

Which means we all fully understand that the only cryptocurrency that has ever existed and would ever remain crypto is bitcoin, and if we know this, why are we still giving chances to some of these companies that has nothing to offer us other than to take people’s money and never work in line with what cryptocurrency was created for.

I think it will be the high time, we too, who are investors supports the vision for cryptocurrency by using it for what it was created for, we need to embrace bitcoin and not only invest in it, buts start using it for our transactions so that the vision of crypto can be clearly defined and seen.

Isn't it possible in future to implement smart contracts on bitcoin blockchain on second layer? Wouldn't that make bitcoin similar to etherum?

And neo, waves, eos, nem, BNB and hundreds more. ETH is not unique.

In my opinion we have thousands of blockchains (most of them very similar) while only 1 is needed. And this one (bitcoin) is hitting masses the most effective (although its not the fastest).

I was always in favor of Btc, Eth, Xmr and all the 3 are quite unique in terms of development and serving the public. They can be called as a "Trinity probably. LTC is more or less a fork of BTC and can be used as payment services.

Apart from being a payment system, Ethereum is like a Decetralized World Computer. Developers can help their company to create tokenized assets on top of the blockchain, store confidential records which cannot be destroyed over time, smart contracts for running a decentralized trustless gambling casino and a lot more. Though these can only be possible with Ether and its blockchain, there are quite few disadvantages due to the useless ERC20 tokens generated out of thin air which are more commonly used as a tool for scamming poor newbie investors.

Tanking of Ether occurs mainly due to these scam token companies dumping their Ether and converting them to USD and running away with money. ICOs are the primary reason for the dumping of Ether and they would continue unless the true use case of Ethereum blockchain is found.

If Bitcoin is a payment system, Ethereum is used for running decentralized applications. Both are unique and very much different in their idea and can never be compared. Ethereum is never considered to be a store of value nor it isn't created to serve the purpose. When the companies start shifting to the developement of decentralized applications, Ether would create a demand and so does the price will rise.

There was nothing like ICOs in 2013. Just shady security investments, mining rig pre-orders, and altcoins. All of which people bought in spades.

I assume some new get-rich-quick token schemes will be cooked up but it doesn't matter either way. The whole crypto market will pump regardless.