Topic: What will BTC be worth in 12 months - page 2. (Read 4039 times)

Also the more the banks only thinking about themselfs instead of there customers, Crisis in 2013 getting worst in most lands people feeling they get scammed by pensionfunds and bringging millions to waek countries, maybe the new weaponlaws in the US, al that will be in favor of the use and economie of BTC exactly what we need at the exact moment in time,
mark my words its not just the money making BTC,  it will get its use it,s made for...

The demand for Bitcoin will steadily grow during the next year. BTC will reach $18 at the end of 2013.

I agree with your first paragraph but moderately disagree with the second. BTC is unlikely (though obviously not impossibly unlikely) to fall in price by over 90 per cent again, in my humble opinion.

I believe it will break 20, but i also believe that this will invite alot of other similar currenceys to use that as a means to drive people to theres. like lite coin or whatever may come.

I just cant see the set amount of BTC after its all been mined will be enough world wide, given there are alot of horders so IMO. but then again im used to USD. and for me having 1/20th of a bitcoin being a dollar just doesnt sit right. kinda like 1000 pesos sounds like alot its not. (ive got 1000 mbtc!!!!!)  or i could be too stoned... i hope i make sence.

Id be surprised if it was still below $100 in 12 months.
Even though BTC is up almost 300% from its lows this year, $150m for market cap is peanuts when you consider that some WallStreet CEOs make more than that in a year. The real mania has yet to begin. 99% of the people out there have not even heard of Bitcoin, let alone buy some.

Unfortunately this also means that there will be a bigger crash than the previous bubble eventually in percentage terms.

I'm guessing around $17 American based on the current steady inflation of the price. Makes me wonder if vendors will start lowering the Bitcoin price or let it ride?

40-50 is a reliable guess imo

As long as people continue to use it, it should be around. Still I would not invest either...

Who can tell, but perhaps bitcoin may become something different, ie netdollar. This is all very new, so I'd be wary about buying for investment.

True however both of those factors would only materially matter IF they change significantly as Bitcoin tx volume rises.  One way to look at them is we are comparing tx volume to price and any excess or "unreported" tx are already baked into the current price.

However I should stress that was just a guestimate.  A back of the napkin SWAG.  It at least compares similar units as opposed to comparing tx volume (measurement over time) to money supply (a point measurement).

I just looked at it like a question of "how many windows are there in New York City?

Nice summary. It's difficult to compare it tho:
* Someone could move 100k a few times and drastically increase the transaction volume.
* A lot of BTC are moved on web services (e.g. exchanges) without a transaction.
* ...

There is aprox and there is mixing two unrelated numbers.  
It would be like saving a Prius gets 60mpg and a Porsche can go 240 mph so a Prius is worth 1/4th as much as a Porsche.

So even as guestimate we need to look at same units.

Today BTC has an annual estimated* tx volume of ~$1,227 million and the money supply is ~$140 million.  This means the Bitcoin economy has a velocity of ~9 (each coin is exchanged 9 times per year on average).

If Bitcoin had tx volume equal to PayPal that is ~$71B tx per year and ...  
If the velocity of 9 holds then the money supply would be valued at $71B /9 = $7.8B.  

If we assume this happens in 4 years when there are ~16M BTC minted that would put the exchange rate at ~$486 USD:BTC.  
If we assume this happens in 8 years when there are ~18M BTC that would put the exchange rate closer to ~$432 USD:BTC.  

Granted there is a lot of "guess" in that guesstimate (and it shouldn't be taken as more than a guess).  A large portion of the value of BTC is speculation and as Bitcoin gets larger and larger its growth will slow and the speculation premium will decline.  Also the velocity of 9 may not hold it could be much higher or lower in the future but it is a starting point.




* Blockchain.info looks at tx and attempts to estimate which output is the tx and which is the change.  It is a guesstimate only.

I know it's a strange comparison, that's why I wrote some approx. imagination

But how would you compare it to Paypal?

How many transactions will be done with all BTCs during one year?

ha ha ha well it is a fundamentally disruptive technology (which normally means BIG changes) that could well bring as much change as the internet for so many reasons. It is still in its infancy.

I dream at night of cryptocurrencies and us buying spacetrips with them in 20 years

He know's 

Imagine if they were ever to go that high and we were all the new generation of "dot-com" millionaires lol. One can dream!

That's a strange comparison. If all Bitcoins are moved 100 times per year the value only has to be ~$70.00 on average to get to 71 billion USD transaction volume per year.

You are underestimated the Russian (there is no paypal) China, Australia,Canada, South America, Europe, Middle East,Africa ect. ect.

The world isn,t JUST America and thats way i believe in BITCOIN ..when its taking over the world the price be way over $20,-

Even if only the use would be illegal stuff ect. still it will go up..then also the legal possibilities and the mainstream use of it the rocket just started to go up..just my 2 cents 
 

No, that is why we have millibitcoins, microbitcoins and satoshis. (Centi-whatever is for pimps).

This is an interesting point, if Bitcoins become too valuable they will become useless as a currency and will be just another finite commodity like oil, gold, diamonds etc.

The difference is although we like the whole Bitcoin philosophy and the way the system works what use do they actually have as a currency if they are worth $10,000 per coin. They'll just end up being part of wealthy peoples diversified investment portfolio's.

c4c

Lets hope your wish stay a wish. Because it will blow a bubble if it come true and bubbles tend to blow up. A currency should not grow to fast.