Topic: What will BTC 'Mean Reversion' be in 2019? My prediction is $1400 USD - page 2. (Read 304 times)

BITCOIN is a  synthetic asset traded on exchanges for US Dollars.

Its a trade-able asset, of course its trade-ability is very narrow, as only geeks will except BTC.

The money poured into BTC in 2017 came from easy FED QE, and credit-card's, both these feeds have been closed post Dec 2017.

Today there is no source for "GREATER FOOLS" to enter the BTC pigpen.

Most of the whales ( think winkelvoss ) want out, but those that didn't get out at $20k, are well they're screwed

Like all statistical 'time series' the BTC historical prices can be analyzed by "QUANT PROGRAMS", and the future prices can be predicted to statistical certainty's.

All great PONZI's in history, Madoff including, tulip mania, .... et-al the call of the day was always "HODL".

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The point is that BTC is not going away, its useful; It's now 10 years old, and in time the price will stabilize, and people can with certainty determine its 'risk', for now BUYING BTC is just burning good money.

We really can't 'value' bitcoin, but what we can do is let all the post January 2017 idiots wash-out, and that means bringing price back to $1,000 USD, and then let BTC find its 'sweet spot'

You can't make money by buying bitcoin.

You can't make money by mining bitcoin.

The only thing I can see is a perhaps a Mutual Fund in a place with cheap-hydro selling btc shares, based on cheap mining,

Last year ONE BTC was 20 barrels of oil, that might have been around at the $15k level, so say we're down to 5 barrels of oil now to mine one btc, that's still a lot of energy.

We can't talk about 'limited' because the clones dilute BTC, it's not like GOLD where people would actually BUY fools gold ( alts )

Maybe some new algo, or HW will come along to make BTC mining profitable again?? The thing is if mining ain't profitable, then why run a server or a miner? The entire premise of mining is to process transactions. If servers are only ran to collect a toll-tax, then in theory there goes the entire reason for BTC, e.g. free transfer of funds.

This is why I like the ZEN model, where people are paid in zen for running transaction servers, in time something like this will be needed for BTC.

Sure if the difficulty goes down, the price of energy goes down, but there are so many antminers out there, for now it appears that most bitcoin will only be mined in places with near to free electricity, of course 'true believers' can waste their money and pay a premium to mine, but again this is a fools game.

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At the end of the day, BTC has ONLY ONE utility, and that is to move money from A to B, in a time of War where you can't carry your wealth for fear of government theft, ...

Billionaires are funding their own separate chains, BCH & BSV
1.  They are selling any btc they still mine and using it to fund their forks.
2.  They also have huge amounts of btc to sell.

The BSV team plans to run this way for months to crush the other bitcoins.
So btc holders are going to be taking it on the chin for the foreseeable future.

No matter, what you think of Wright, his goal is to make Wu bleed money,
and constant selling of bitcoin to fund his operations in addition to making Wu spend more to support bch is a way to accomplish it.

Your $1400 prediction for btc is a definite and real possibility.

 


FYI:
Anyone buying btc above $2000 now is going to regret it within 3 months.  

$6000-$7000. We're in a desperation selloff right now that represents investor capitulation at the end of a bear market. This is when big players start BUYING.

bitcoin is not stock market.

wrong, it was because of a huge increase interest towards bitcoin in 2017 which led to money pouring in. and like always when the adoption/demand increases in a small market with thin orderbooks the price shoots up.

if we are coming up with random numbers i say price is going to be $200000 about the same as a Lamborghinis so that it can settle in parity with it.

then don't be a moron and start by selling yourself

In stock market the typical 'quant' method to make money is mean-reversion, you study all stocks and calculate their trending-average, then using lin-alg, you can get eigen-values and predict stocks that are out-of-whack, high(SELL) or low(BUY), and when (time-factor) they will revert to their mean.

Now of course artificially in 2017 BTC was to the moon because of the FED ( free fiat to infinity post 2007 ) & credit-card ( banks let morons go wild - 22% debt to lose 90% wealth )  purchase of BTC, both those windows are now closed. Thus BTC will now drift lower and find its mean.

My prediction calculation is $1400 USD, about the same as an ounce of GOLD. Which would be fine with me if BTC just settled in parity with GOLD.

What you say here? Have an opinion?

I see no possible 'moon shot' on the horizon, we're looking at a down market, people are cash-poor, deep in debt and shit is going down all over the world, thus there is no new source of funds to flow to BTC.

The whales are NOT done unloading, the whales are NOT idiots, HODL is for morons, billionaires ( whales ) didn't get rich by being morons.

Post Dec 2017, futures trading became possible with BTC, so whales could 'buy insurance' when they sold tons of BTC, so the question is are they done selling?? I don't think so, I think everybody is waiting to get past the new year.

BTC had settled to $6500 zone, now its on the $3500 zone, soon $1700 zone, I think it will bounce between $1000 & $1500 for a long time, all the post January 2017 gains will have gotten wiped out.

THis is no problem folks, had you owned gold in 1978-1982 you would have also 'lost' 90% of your money, but had you sold high, and bought back in low, you would have also 4X your gold holdings.