What will happen if there's no price rise for the halfing? - page 11.

Denker

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Quote from: disclaimer201 on February 07, 2016, 05:55:17 AM

I believe we will see a decline of the difficulty after halving day due to some big chinese companies shutting down and selling their equipment if the price rise doesn't at least compensate for loss of profitability. These super farms do not want to support the network but simply turn a profit. If the numbers are not rising, or are stagnating, let alone decreasing, some of them will liquidate their mining business.

Yepp that would be the logical consequence.But that is no drama as difficulty and hash rate is extremely high. Even if it would drop way more than one could expect the small private miners at home could see it as an opportunity to switch on their equipment again.

1Referee

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Quote from: disclaimer201 on February 07, 2016, 05:55:17 AM

I believe we will see a decline of the difficulty after halving day due to some big chinese companies shutting down and selling their equipment if the price rise doesn't at least compensate for loss of profitability. These super farms do not want to support the network but simply turn a profit. If the numbers are not rising, or are stagnating, let alone decreasing, some of them will liquidate their mining business.

Well, the difficulty has gone up to insanely high levels. Even if some larger miners shut down their mining operations, then the difficulty will still be very high. The difficulty almost doubled in the last 2 months and will continue to go up. Till now the largest mining farms have had enough time to earn back their invested hardware money. If the price doesn't go up as much as people are hoping for, then these farms can still make a profit.

Beside that, I really think the Chinese giant exchanges Huobi and OKCoin are up to something. If the price doesn't go up by itself, then they will offer a helping hand. Wink

disclaimer201

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I believe we will see a decline of the difficulty after halving day due to some big chinese companies shutting down and selling their equipment if the price rise doesn't at least compensate for loss of profitability. These super farms do not want to support the network but simply turn a profit. If the numbers are not rising, or are stagnating, let alone decreasing, some of them will liquidate their mining business.

Juhagic

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Quote from: ~Bitcoin~ on January 25, 2016, 07:49:44 AM

Difficulty will be lowered after some of the small miners left the mining bitcoin and shift towards mining alts. This is reason why we don't have to blindly believe that price will rise before halving this year.

If the price does not rise after the halving, some less efficient miners will be turned off. The difficulty might not drop due to the more efficient miners coming to the market.

~Bitcoin~

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Difficulty will be lowered after some of the small miners left the mining bitcoin and shift towards mining alts. This is reason why we don't have to blindly believe that price will rise before halving this year.

Juhagic

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Quote from: majorX on January 03, 2016, 02:23:01 PM

You wont see a price rise when the reward drops. It will already be priced in by then.

I believe the price has not reflected the halving. The halving is still 6 months away. The market will not react so early.

LMGTFY

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Quote from: Juhagic on January 12, 2016, 04:18:27 AM

Quote from: Arcteryx on January 02, 2016, 05:14:02 AM

A lot of angry people I would imagine as they were waiting a whole year or more for this to increase their stash of coins astronomically. Myself included the ones in cold storage that is Wink

Maybe they should realise that the price has already risen over 60% in the last year. But people are expecting a big rise in June.

^ This.

I think sometimes people think the date of the block reward reduction will roll around and suddenly the market will wake up to it. In reality, the relevance of the halfing increases as we approach it - but not in a sudden-spike way, but in a gradually-over-the-course-of-time way, as the poster above has pointed out. The market knows the halfing will happen.

I've also got coins sitting in cold storage, and an astronomical rise would, of course!, be very nice. But a 60% rise through 2015 is good, and with the 2016 block reward reduction out of the way we can look forward to the market pricing in - gradually! - the rise for the 2020 block reward reduction.

kpitti

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Bitcoin and Blockachain will continue to coexist for sure. Miners will be looking for more productive way how to work with less cost. Difficulty will adjust accordingly so no worry.

Juhagic

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Quote from: Arcteryx on January 02, 2016, 05:14:02 AM

A lot of angry people I would imagine as they were waiting a whole year or more for this to increase their stash of coins astronomically. Myself included the ones in cold storage that is Wink

Maybe they should realise that the price has already risen over 60% in the last year. But people are expecting a big rise in June.

Nameless Coin

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The price will remain the same (like last time)

But no harm will been done. By february/march we will see some new miners coming out which make it profitable.

praprata

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Quote from: chokesir on January 03, 2016, 02:19:22 PM

No rise means no miners (home miners) which means no decentralization.

This could be the end for bitcoin, since it is it's unique selling point.

This would be very bad for bitcoin. Even I would sell my coins since bitcoin needs to be and stay decentralized.

Let's hope some new cutting edge miner will come on the market by then.

majorX

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You wont see a price rise when the reward drops. It will already be priced in by then.

chokesir

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No rise means no miners (home miners) which means no decentralization.

This could be the end for bitcoin, since it is it's unique selling point.

2legit2

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the interest in bitcoin would definitely drop a lot and people wouldnt buy it anymore

tokeweed

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Bat what if the halfing arrive back at smaller price?

coinzat

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Young but I'm not that bold

the price nowadays is the double of the price in last September , so miners did not stop when the bitcoin price reached $200 So WHY will stop them when the halving happen with current price ? it will be the same as 25 btc in Sep 2015 = 12.5 btc now in price

So IMO price will not stop miners from mining

Arcteryx

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A lot of angry people I would imagine as they were waiting a whole year or more for this to increase their stash of coins astronomically. Myself included the ones in cold storage that is Wink

bitcoinboy12

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I think if it will happen and there is no price increase anymore mining cant be profitable
And it will reduce miners and users until bitcoin has no value.
But for me it will never happen because the price is stable and halving is nearly end.
So mining still be profitable on this year so keep your asic miner active and wait for halving ends..

Amph

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Quote from: killerjoegreece on January 01, 2016, 07:35:10 PM

once miners stop mining lthe difficulty drops and its profitable to mine again for others

yeah but it mean that the network will be less secure, because than the next halvign will cause another drop, and the next one another one, plus add new efficient miners

all this need the price to increase, there is no other way around, if this will not happen it will eventually lead to the died of bitcoin

tokeweed

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But what if Gandalf will arrive if there is no price increase for the halfling?

Topic: What will happen if there's no price rise for the halfing? - page 11. (Read 13571 times)