Topic: what will happen in 37 weeks when bitcoin halves again (Read 2871 times)
My simplistic prediction is that after the halving, the network will produce about 1800 Bitcoins per day......
According to the bitcoin clock bitcoin will drop to 12.5 btc per block in late July of 2016.
How will miners react to this?
What will it take to keep miners mining?
What if miners in large numbers decide not to mine?
All of my S7 works as usual. At least 8 hours a day and on weekends , because I have a great price for Night electricity.
More probably 24/7 mining continues , which means € 3,500 on electricity bills per month.
There are really too many unknowns and it's still way to early to tell. Normally price should increase and we should find ourselves at the equilibrium again as the mining reward will drop by half, from 50 to 25 BTCs per block. So this increase in price will make for the people that are going to drop out of the mining game because of the lower reward.
But we already see a big increase in price compared to $230 levels, which is good for the miners. Really many unknowns and we will have to wait and see how this will play out exactly!
But we already see a big increase in price compared to $230 levels, which is good for the miners. Really many unknowns and we will have to wait and see how this will play out exactly!
BTC to the moon on halving !
That's the way to go !
Hahaha
That's the way to go !
Hahaha
price is already 50% higher, now that we are still many months away, a 100% increase is more than possible by the time the halving kick in, this is good so the miners will not leave, and keep securing the network
The same thing that happened last halving, nothing special, business as usual...
Did mining profits decrease?
Yes, they went from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC per block.
Nope, that's the revenue, not profits.
The same thing that happened last halving, nothing special, business as usual...
Did mining profits decrease?
Yes, they went from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC per block.
LOL, that much I knew. I guess I should have asked the question differently.
How did miners compensate for the halving?
Well back when it happened there were no asic's and the price stumbled we had a - diff or two.
Then avalon came out with the first asic and we had 2 spikes in price.
The march april 2013 spike .. I made more money then I did from aug 2012 to feb 2013.
My guess is we ramp up in price to the 350-500 level vs the older 230 level.
Home mining will never die simply because of heating value during the winter.
I have a few winter locations that use electrical heaters like this
http://www.sylvane.com/delonghi-comfortemp-radiator.html?s_cid=cse_bingshopping
so how is this not a perfect place for an s-3 or two?
The same thing that happened last halving, nothing special, business as usual...
Did mining profits decrease?
Yes, they went from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC per block.
LOL, that much I knew. I guess I should have asked the question differently.
How did miners compensate for the halving?
BTC to the moon on halving !
That's the way to go !
Hahaha
That's the way to go !
Hahaha
The same thing that happened last halving, nothing special, business as usual...
Did mining profits decrease?
Yes, they went from 50 BTC per block to 25 BTC per block.
The same thing that happened last halving, nothing special, business as usual...
Did mining profits decrease?
The price will be safe @ 400 usd I expect, else a lot of ppl will have to turn their miners off..
The same thing that happened last halving, nothing special, business as usual...
The last halving happened in 2012. At that time, the demands wasn't big and the mining competition wasn't big either. But now, many still have to sell them for electrical fees. Some claimed to have kept a portion of it in Bitcoins from the mining profits. Since many would have ROIed by now, I can't say about how much the halving would impact prices but I doubt the prices would skyrocket.
Most likely, there will be a runup starting about a month before the halfing.
I'm guessing it will go up 60-70%, then drift back down a couple months after the halfing to about 50% more than 2 months before the halfing.
At that point, anything older than the "current generation" will have become unprofitable even with VERY CHEAP electric and a lot of hashpower will start dropping out - but I suspect there will be plenty of "current generation" hashpower on line by then, so the diff likely won't drop much if at all from the 2-months-before point to the 2-months-after point.
I DO expect to see a very short-term diff drop after the halfing, then close to stagnation for a while - kind of like the first half of this year but more so.
If the current price surge lasts longer than I think, and the runup gets BitCoin pricing above $600 or so, the halfing won't have much effect at all as older-gen units will still be profitable (barely). The diff probably WILL still flatten out though, and eventually folks with higher electric costs will go unprofitable and shut down older gear.
I'm guessing it will go up 60-70%, then drift back down a couple months after the halfing to about 50% more than 2 months before the halfing.
At that point, anything older than the "current generation" will have become unprofitable even with VERY CHEAP electric and a lot of hashpower will start dropping out - but I suspect there will be plenty of "current generation" hashpower on line by then, so the diff likely won't drop much if at all from the 2-months-before point to the 2-months-after point.
I DO expect to see a very short-term diff drop after the halfing, then close to stagnation for a while - kind of like the first half of this year but more so.
If the current price surge lasts longer than I think, and the runup gets BitCoin pricing above $600 or so, the halfing won't have much effect at all as older-gen units will still be profitable (barely). The diff probably WILL still flatten out though, and eventually folks with higher electric costs will go unprofitable and shut down older gear.
The same thing that happened last halving, nothing special, business as usual...
I believe bitcoin will survive the halving and long there after. I am going to stay invested. I think the ceo who said that bitcoin will be dead soon because no government will put up with it is a clown. More than likely bitcoin is a threat to his job.
I feel the current rise of the price has to do with the upcoming halving. Which will bring the new floor to USD 400-450.
Goodbye 230
Goodbye 230
This is pretty much my hope.
I think this could be the prequel to the 1/2 ing.
I feel the current rise of the price has to do with the upcoming halving. Which will bring the new floor to USD 400-450.
Goodbye 230
Goodbye 230
If miners stopped mining it would be great for everyone else.
Are you sure about that? I still have much to learn about bitcoin but wouldn't it fail since there would be no one securing the transactions?
I think he meant that, if the big miners stop mining with their crazy huge rigs, the difficulty would go down allowing people with lesser hardware to mine more Bitcoin.
My guess is that alot of miners will quickly run away, they've made the profit they wanted. But due to this, the transaction fees would rise to something like 0.0005-0.001 per transaction. But due to the low amount of miners (lower difficulty) and higher transaction fees, the miners will quickly flood back in. Probably not as much as before, but more than straight after the halving. But due to this, the tx fees will lower again, and miners will quit. again. Thus continues the circle of greed.
Or, maybe the miners will read this post, and no one will leave the mining game. One way or another, the thriving non-miner community will stay on top of the world.
But most of the home miners will quit.
Or, maybe the miners will read this post, and no one will leave the mining game. One way or another, the thriving non-miner community will stay on top of the world.
But most of the home miners will quit.
If miners stopped mining it would be great for everyone else.
then how can we get our transactions to be confirmed if no one is mining for the network? IMO all transactions will be forgotten by the network in few days if its not confirmed so bitcoin will eventually die if that happens
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