What will happen to BTC price if the US defaults?

pooya87

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Quote from: savetheFORUM on February 21, 2023, 07:10:09 AM

I think it is not going to be that much of a problem for USA but more towards nations that move towards Yuan or any other currency. Why? Because dollar is a global currency, even if it is issued by Americans, it is still a global currency, whereas Yuan is still just one nations currency and not yet that much global.

How many nations can you travel with dollars in your pocket, and can still live there, and how many you can do it with Yuan? When this switch hurts nations like Brazil more than it helps them, we are going to see them give up pretty quickly, and they will instead try to go back to dollar. This will take of course about 10 years or more, but it will happen.

There really isn't any difference between dollar and yuan. Both are centralized unlimited fiat currencies that are printed by a centralized government and are devalued over time. That means adopting Yuan by Brazil for their trades is not going to hurt them any more than adopting dollar did.

Quote from: AverageGlabella on February 21, 2023, 07:26:11 AM

War would make the dollar fall more wouldn't? As soon as you go to war and there is not enough money to go around the US would need to print more money off increasing inflation and the tax people pay. The dollar would feel the affect and drop further which will only convince other countries that they need to find an alternative to the dollar. I do not think a proxy war solves any thing for the US.

It both does and doesn't. We have to consider all the effects of this war.

On one hand What you said is correct and another negative impact is that high energy price and the global competition that's been happening is creating recession in US and the US economy is hurting badly. With non-stop money printing dollar is inevitably losing value.

On the other hand the US regime is heavily increasing its income through 4 major exports that would have never happened without this proxy war. They are oil, gas, food (eg. wheat, corn, etc.) and weapons.
For example without the proxy war with Russia the gas price would have never reached this high and US would have never had this much demand for their super expensive LNG. Russia needed to cut off gas export to Europe for Europe to be forced into buying US LNG.
Same with the other 3.

The real question is, how much longer this trend can continue before it all falls apart? What if the 70's is repeated and Europe dumps dollar again?

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Quote from: pooya87 on February 19, 2023, 11:53:53 PM

I don't know what will happen in the future but US dollar is already being abandoned as we speak. Dozens of countries have already started moving away from it, for example Brazil which has only slightly smaller exports to China compared to United States is the most recent country that switched to using Yuan instead of Dollar.
It is not always replaced by Yuan though. Other currencies are being used too between countries. There is even gold bars being used as currency these days.

Of course US is fighting this and will continue to fight (...Taiwan proxy war incoming...) but it will only slow down dedollarization, just like fighting bitcoin will only slow down its adoption.

The de-dollarization process is inevitable. Countries are slowly stepping away from the USD, especially when they are starting to lose trust in it. Rising geopolitical tensions should leads us towards a shift in the world's reserve currency within the not-so-distant future. Empires don't last forever, so I'd expect the US to fall as the world's leading superpower in the long run.

What currency will replace the USD as the world's reserve currency is a mystery. It could either be one of the leading Fiat currencies in the world, or in a shocking twist, Bitcoin itself. I'd prefer BTC to become the world's reserve currency, as that would be a game-changer. Having a decentralized and censorship-resistant cryptocurrency leading the global economy, does come with its benefits. The odds of this happening are very slim, but you'll never know what the future holds for all of us. If countries adopt BTC as legal tender like El Salvador, then BTC will become the next reserve currency of the world. No one can predict the future, so we can only hope for the best. Just my thoughts Grin

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Quote from: savetheFORUM on February 21, 2023, 07:10:09 AM

Quote from: pooya87 on February 19, 2023, 11:53:53 PM

I don't know what will happen in the future but US dollar is already being abandoned as we speak. Dozens of countries have already started moving away from it, for example Brazil which has only slightly smaller exports to China compared to United States is the most recent country that switched to using Yuan instead of Dollar.
It is not always replaced by Yuan though. Other currencies are being used too between countries. There is even gold bars being used as currency these days.

Of course US is fighting this and will continue to fight (...Taiwan proxy war incoming...) but it will only slow down dedollarization, just like fighting bitcoin will only slow down its adoption.

I think it is not going to be that much of a problem for USA but more towards nations that move towards Yuan or any other currency. Why? Because dollar is a global currency, even if it is issued by Americans, it is still a global currency, whereas Yuan is still just one nations currency and not yet that much global.

How many nations can you travel with dollars in your pocket, and can still live there, and how many you can do it with Yuan? When this switch hurts nations like Brazil more than it helps them, we are going to see them give up pretty quickly, and they will instead try to go back to dollar. This will take of course about 10 years or more, but it will happen.

The US dollar is still the global currency, still dominating the world currency, but it has weakened in recent years, and many countries have stopped using the US dollar in their commercial transactions. That has never happened before, and it shows that USD is weakening.
Of course, the renminbi will not replace the USD anytime soon, it will probably take a few decades for China to do that, and the US is doing everything to maintain its position. Anything is possible because, before the US, we also had Spain, France, and England, which once dominated the world.

AverageGlabella

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Quote from: pooya87 on February 19, 2023, 11:53:53 PM

Of course US is fighting this and will continue to fight (...Taiwan proxy war incoming...) but it will only slow down dedollarization, just like fighting bitcoin will only slow down its adoption.

War would make the dollar fall more wouldn't? As soon as you go to war and there is not enough money to go around the US would need to print more money off increasing inflation and the tax people pay. The dollar would feel the affect and drop further which will only convince other countries that they need to find an alternative to the dollar. I do not think a proxy war solves any thing for the US.

Quote from: savetheFORUM on February 21, 2023, 07:10:09 AM

How many nations can you travel with dollars in your pocket, and can still live there, and how many you can do it with Yuan? When this switch hurts nations like Brazil more than it helps them, we are going to see them give up pretty quickly, and they will instead try to go back to dollar. This will take of course about 10 years or more, but it will happen.

A lot of asian countries prefer the dollar to the euro and if you are traveling from Europe it would be better to exchange your euros into dollars before traveling because while it is not their official currency they prefer it over local sometimes because it is more stable.

savetheFORUM

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Quote from: pooya87 on February 19, 2023, 11:53:53 PM

I don't know what will happen in the future but US dollar is already being abandoned as we speak. Dozens of countries have already started moving away from it, for example Brazil which has only slightly smaller exports to China compared to United States is the most recent country that switched to using Yuan instead of Dollar.
It is not always replaced by Yuan though. Other currencies are being used too between countries. There is even gold bars being used as currency these days.

Of course US is fighting this and will continue to fight (...Taiwan proxy war incoming...) but it will only slow down dedollarization, just like fighting bitcoin will only slow down its adoption.

I think it is not going to be that much of a problem for USA but more towards nations that move towards Yuan or any other currency. Why? Because dollar is a global currency, even if it is issued by Americans, it is still a global currency, whereas Yuan is still just one nations currency and not yet that much global.

How many nations can you travel with dollars in your pocket, and can still live there, and how many you can do it with Yuan? When this switch hurts nations like Brazil more than it helps them, we are going to see them give up pretty quickly, and they will instead try to go back to dollar. This will take of course about 10 years or more, but it will happen.

pooya87

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Quote from: Abiky on February 19, 2023, 07:01:54 AM

I can't imagine the Chinese Yuan becoming the next reserve currency in the world. It will give unfantomable power to China beyond comprehension. If that happens, China will rule the world. I don't think the USD will get out of its current position without a fight. Nothing lasts forever, so it's likely the world will have another reserve currency in the future (hopefully it won't be the Yuan).

I don't know what will happen in the future but US dollar is already being abandoned as we speak. Dozens of countries have already started moving away from it, for example Brazil which has only slightly smaller exports to China compared to United States is the most recent country that switched to using Yuan instead of Dollar.
It is not always replaced by Yuan though. Other currencies are being used too between countries. There is even gold bars being used as currency these days.

Of course US is fighting this and will continue to fight (...Taiwan proxy war incoming...) but it will only slow down dedollarization, just like fighting bitcoin will only slow down its adoption.

Quote

What will that mean for Bitcoin, is an excellent question. The crypto market is tied to the USD (although many coins can be traded for other Fiat currencies), so a collapse of the USD might boost prices all the way to the moon. BTC would probably be in the "millions" if that happens. We're still early to the game, so why not keep buying and "holding" BTC to plan ahead for the future? Just my thoughts Grin

Exactly.

Abiky

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Quote from: pooya87 on February 18, 2023, 11:36:15 PM

There are a bunch of candidates as replacement and Euro is not among them. In fact in the future Europe's economy falls apart faster and worse than US economy as it is already evident from the inflation, recession and deindustrialization going on in the two continents.
Unfortunately one of the biggest replacement options seems to be Yuan! Then it would be China that abuses its power an ruins the world instead of US...

I can't imagine the Chinese Yuan becoming the next reserve currency in the world. It will give unfantomable power to China beyond comprehension. If that happens, China will rule the world. I don't think the USD will get out of its current position without a fight. Nothing lasts forever, so it's likely the world will have another reserve currency in the future (hopefully it won't be the Yuan).

What will that mean for Bitcoin, is an excellent question. The crypto market is tied to the USD (although many coins can be traded for other Fiat currencies), so a collapse of the USD might boost prices all the way to the moon. BTC would probably be in the "millions" if that happens. We're still early to the game, so why not keep buying and "holding" BTC to plan ahead for the future? Just my thoughts Grin

wxa7115

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Quote from: Abiky on February 13, 2023, 10:10:17 AM

There are rumors that the US will default on its national debt soon. If that happens, the global economy will plunge to new lows. After all, the US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world. While BTC and altcoins are a new kind of asset class, they rely on the mainstream economy to survive. People usually tie BTC's market price to existing Fiat currencies (mainly the USD).

The US Dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency after the US defaults, so I wonder what will hapoen with BTC's market price after that? Will it rise like skyrocket? Or will it fall for good? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

Can the US even default on their debt? They can print all the dollars they want, and while this will mean a very high inflation, especially if governments around the world decide to begin to use their reserves and buy whatever they can with it, this will not be technically a default as the US government will still pay what they owe, they will just use devalued dollars.

At that point I expect the value of bitcoin to drop at the beginning of this process as many holders begin to sell their coins to pay their own debts and other basic needs, but then I would expect bitcoin to perform really well as people try to find a currency that is not going through such a high inflation and only bitcoin and precious metals could fulfill that role.

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Quote from: pooya87 on February 18, 2023, 11:36:15 PM

Quote from: Abiky on February 16, 2023, 05:07:59 AM

But when this happens, the world would probably be using another currency (Euro, perhaps?) as its reserve currency.

There are a bunch of candidates as replacement and Euro is not among them. In fact in the future Europe's economy falls apart faster and worse than US economy as it is already evident from the inflation, recession and deindustrialization going on in the two continents.
Unfortunately one of the biggest replacement options seems to be Yuan! Then it would be China that abuses its power an ruins the world instead of US...

I agree with this thinking, the EU economy is not sustainable, the recent war shows that the EU is too dependent on the US, and there will be no solution if it completely cuts off ties with Russia, and in case the US stops supporting, they will collapse completely. Euro cannot become a world currency like USD. The only competitor so far for the USD is none other than the Chinese yuan. With the current rapid development rate, if the US does not have any solution to restrain China's development. In the future, they will soon replace the US as a superpower and the renminbi will replace the US dollar.

pooya87

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Quote from: Abiky on February 16, 2023, 05:07:59 AM

But when this happens, the world would probably be using another currency (Euro, perhaps?) as its reserve currency.

There are a bunch of candidates as replacement and Euro is not among them. In fact in the future Europe's economy falls apart faster and worse than US economy as it is already evident from the inflation, recession and deindustrialization going on in the two continents.
Unfortunately one of the biggest replacement options seems to be Yuan! Then it would be China that abuses its power an ruins the world instead of US...

adaseb

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It seems that this “US defaulting” is becoming more and more active in the headlines. Because I keep hearing this topic being discussed almost daily. It was originally some suggestion of some bank and now all the news stories are printing it. And since they are printing it, means they have no idea how slim of a chance this is of happening.

They won’t default. They will just keep doing what they have been doing for the past few decades. The debt ceiling will be raised as usual and life will go on. This is not a reason for them to pivot and cut rates. Inflation is still too high and the fed needs a soft landing.

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Quote from: Abiky on February 13, 2023, 10:10:17 AM

There are rumors that the US will default on its national debt soon. If that happens, the global economy will plunge to new lows. After all, the US Dollar is the reserve currency of the world.

People love to spread gossip and rumors that bring fear and uncertainty and i also think that the rumor about the US will default will stay as a rumor and will not happen. US is very influencial country and their currency USD is used by several country so it is less likey that uS will default.

Quote from: Abiky on February 13, 2023, 10:10:17 AM

While BTC and altcoins are a new kind of asset class, they rely on the mainstream economy to survive. People usually tie BTC's market price to existing Fiat currencies (mainly the USD).

Well, if US defaulted then many institution will possibly look at Bitcoin's way of creating an institutional investment explosion which can bring huge boost to the Bitcoin market.

Quote from: Abiky on February 13, 2023, 10:10:17 AM

The US Dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency after the US defaults, so I wonder what will hapoen with BTC's market price after that? Will it rise like skyrocket? Or will it fall for good? Your input will be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

We don't know if the USD will no longer be the worlds reserve currency after the uS defaulted, one thing I am somehow thinking and that the Bitcoin market as I stated will have a boost which can lead to price increase.

Abiky

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Quote from: adaseb on February 16, 2023, 11:53:05 AM

I remember 20 years ago, before I invested or was involved in anything market related, they posted some debt/per person in the USA and it was crazy high. That was 20 years ago. People were saying that they had no choice but to default, did they?

No and they won't default anytime soon. They will just keep raising the debt limit and keep printing money. I don't think anyone wants them to default. It'll create more suffering than we already have. Plus the bonds are not showing any proof of defaults yet.

The US can't keep raising the debt ceiling forever. There's a limit to everything. If they keep doing it, the American economy would be vulnerable to hyperinflation. That would mean a weaker USD within the not-so-distant future. It would be best for the US to pay its national debt first, before thinking of raising the debt ceiling.

Whatever happens, I think BTC will win in the long run thanks to the way it was designed. Deflation counteracts inflation, so technically, BTC price should go up in the long term. As more USD are added in circulation, its value will depreciate over time. That would be Bitcoin's opportunity to shine. Considering that Fiat currencies are a disaster right now, it's very likely Bitcoin will reach $1m as predicted. Who knows if we become the next Bitcoin millionaires? Just my opinion

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From my own perspective I do believe that it going to favour Bitcoin, because no one wants to be cut up in such event, so investors are gonna be running and be looking for a safe heaven assets and Bitcoin, Cryptos and Gold will benefit. We could even begin to see where more and more countries begin to adopt Bitcoin and either make it a legal tender like the El Salvador did.
The fall of the dollar will be the rise of Bitcoin Imo.

STT

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Soft default not hard default. Soft default is when you pay taxes for a national pension for 40 years then just before you retire they raise the age at which you can retire by 1 or 2 years, this is soft default. They will not return the value promised but it wont be a hard default. Reason we can so sure of the soft default is that it is just alot easier to allow to happen then the alternative which as mentioned above could lead to war and extreme consequences for government failure.
The stated aim of the FED is 2% inflation, we may see them overshoot that to average 10% at times but the main reason is the debt load is reduced by that inflation and neither dollar or government will exactly default or fail to pay however great value will lost to private citizens and bond holders.

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Quote from: pooya87 on February 14, 2023, 03:19:48 AM

They are not going to default, they will do what they have been doing all this time when the nation debt sets a new record, they just increase the debt ceiling and continue printing more dollars.

The only thing that is concerning is the world dumping US dollar which means all the trillions and trillions of dollars they have been printing without it being backed by anything is coming back to America and will become a tsunami hitting US economy.
In which case US will experience Venezuela like hyper inflation but on steroids and it would the time for every American to buy as much bitcoin as they can to flee the sinking ship. That means there is this possibility that bitcoin price could reach levels that we can not imagine now.

This is how I understand the US economy and US$ progressing ^{or regressing!}

The only safe haven for anyone's wealth is Bitcoin. We have been told many times
particularly by Michael Saylor that there is no other comparable store of wealth.

In the scenario above the demand for Bitcoin would explode.

adaseb

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I remember 20 years ago, before I invested or was involved in anything market related, they posted some debt/per person in the USA and it was crazy high. That was 20 years ago. People were saying that they had no choice but to default, did they?

No and they won't default anytime soon. They will just keep raising the debt limit and keep printing money. I don't think anyone wants them to default. It'll create more suffering than we already have. Plus the bonds are not showing any proof of defaults yet.

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Quote from: yhiaali3 on February 16, 2023, 05:28:07 AM

Quote from: adaseb on February 14, 2023, 12:24:47 AM

They are not going to default. You know what would happen if they defaulted? It would be chaos and Bitcoin would be the least of your concerns.

You know how many different countries are impacted by the US dollar. How many corps hold US treasuries? A default will never happen, especially to the US dollar. Nobody would want that to happen because it would cause a complete financial meltdown.

Why can't it happen? I know that its occurrence will lead to the collapse of the entire global economic system and that all affected countries will hasten to repay the debt, but what if it happened? Of course, no one likes it to happen, but is it enough to say that it won't happen to prevent it from happening?

In 2008, the mortgage crisis occurred in America and almost caused a catastrophe for the collapse of the entire global economy, so Satoshi thought of inventing Bitcoin at that time to decouple the global economy from the dollar and avoid such a disaster in the future.

Unless the global system is disengaged from the dollar, the threat of global economic collapse will remain.

Because they own the machine that prints USD, and they can print as much as they want and withdraw whenever they want, as they were doing in 2022. Print money to save the economy during the pandemic, and now it's time to export inflation and withdraw USD.

I still haven't thought of the prospect of them falling, as long as something threatens their position as a great power, they will find a way to destroy it. It can be said that it is very unlikely that the US government will default or the US dollar will collapse.

If the US falls, there will be another great power to take its place, and that will be another centralized currency, not bitcoin. The chance of bitcoin is almost zero.

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Quote from: adaseb on February 14, 2023, 12:24:47 AM

They are not going to default. You know what would happen if they defaulted? It would be chaos and Bitcoin would be the least of your concerns.

You know how many different countries are impacted by the US dollar. How many corps hold US treasuries? A default will never happen, especially to the US dollar. Nobody would want that to happen because it would cause a complete financial meltdown.

Why can't it happen? I know that its occurrence will lead to the collapse of the entire global economic system and that all affected countries will hasten to repay the debt, but what if it happened? Of course, no one likes it to happen, but is it enough to say that it won't happen to prevent it from happening?

In 2008, the mortgage crisis occurred in America and almost caused a catastrophe for the collapse of the entire global economy, so Satoshi thought of inventing Bitcoin at that time to decouple the global economy from the dollar and avoid such a disaster in the future.

Unless the global system is disengaged from the dollar, the threat of global economic collapse will remain.

Abiky

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Quote from: pooya87 on February 14, 2023, 03:19:48 AM

They are not going to default, they will do what they have been doing all this time when the nation debt sets a new record, they just increase the debt ceiling and continue printing more dollars.

The only thing that is concerning is the world dumping US dollar which means all the trillions and trillions of dollars they have been printing without it being backed by anything is coming back to America and will become a tsunami hitting US economy.
In which case US will experience Venezuela like hyper inflation but on steroids and it would the time for every American to buy as much bitcoin as they can to flee the sinking ship. That means there is this possibility that bitcoin price could reach levels that we can not imagine now.

I could imagine how easy it is to raise the debt ceiling when the whole world depends on the US Dollar as its reserve currency. This may be more of a drama than anything else. It's likely the US will never default during our lifetimes, especially when most countries depend on the US Dollar. The de-Dollarization process would be a slow and steady one to say the least. You can bet Bitcoin will rise astronomically in price if the USD weakens by a large margin. But when this happens, the world would probably be using another currency (Euro, perhaps?) as its reserve currency.

American decline is happening before our very eyes, so it should only be a matter of time before the US is no longer a superpower. Let's see how Bitcoin will hold off in the long run. Just my thoughts Grin

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