I've been wondering this for a while.... Tens of millions of dollars in equipment will lose money if run in roughly a year (assuming price doesn't skyrocket).
So what happens with it? Will organizations, perhaps the Bitcoin Foundation, buy these units and keep the hashpower on the network for added security, running them at a slight loss, perhaps? Will they be repurposed somehow? Will they simply be thrown away? Will the current owners just keep mining?
While on the topic -- is running obsolete equipment a disservice (long-term) to Bitcoin by making newer, more effective ASICs less attractive? People talk about running their GPUs, FPGAs, and ASICs (in the future) for the sake of the network, but isn't that actually just making it less likely for people to buy or design/develop/manufacture new ASICs since the profit projection would be lower?
You have different goups of people out there. Some will sell their equipment, some will discard it, some may try an alt coin (doubtful), the rest will keep mining. Since the ASIC is built for only 1 purpose, I really cannot see them being repurposed. I cannot see turning a Formula 1 car into a family sedan.
I do not see how running any type of equipment could be a disservice. I saw someone post that where they worked they had a server farm built and tested, but the customer would not be 'occupying' it for another month or so, and he decided to point them all at Primcoin to do some earning instead of sitting idle. The only downside of obsolete equipment as you call it is that you are spending more than you are earning. At that point it pretty much becomes a hobby.
If the manufacturers actually CAN make something that is better, I am sure they will. The question will become whether their ability to improve upon what they have now will be profitable when sold to the customer *and* if the customer thinks it is worth buying. The PS4 is coming out soon, yet I still have a PS2 and a PS3. Even though I plan on purchasing one, I plan on keeping them, others may or may not agree.
