Topic: What's causing the recent bitcoin price increase? - page 2. (Read 9832 times)

"The big news now is that the new Bitcoin rally will likely be even stronger than the first rally from April 2010 to June 2011"

Okay, sounds great.  How much will it go up by?

"This first rally led to a 10,630-fold increase from 0.003 $ to 31.89 $. In the hottest phase from March to June 2011, investors and traders entered a race to put funds into exchanges and buy Bitcoins."

So this rally will be even better, they claim?  Let's see.  $6.40 * 10630 as a minimum.  Wow, $68,032 per bitcoin.  I wonder what the site's author was thinking.  Maybe they were thinking in simple dollar terms, so they think we'll see at least $38/btc quite soon.  Still one heck of an ask.

The author also neglected to mention that although were was a race to put funds into exchange to buy bitcoins between March and June 2011, there was one heck of a stampede to take profits and limit losses on the way down too.


The current rally is a classic selling the sizzle, not the sausage rally.  Thousands of traders are expecting Greeks, Spaniards, and maybe others to seek shelter in bitcoin from currency controls.  Therefore, why not buy in now before desperate people pour millions of Euros into bitcoin?  Should that not happen however I'd expect we'll be trading in the mid to low $5 range quite soon.  There is also no evidence of the average Greek looking towards bitcoins as a safe haven.  I bet most have never even heard of bitcoin.  Try explaining how bitcoin works to the random worker on the street, and then get them to buy some.  Not a simple task.

The price has nothing to do with what miners want.

"Fake" walls are walls in the second row making the users bullish or bearish. I saw that 25k wall at first front and it was completely teared down by sales and not just removed by the trader.

If I have 25k*6.5$, why would I put that money in one order like the way he did? Does he like nice wall pictures?
If this was a fake wall it was an expensive fake as fake would mean it was the trader himself who sold his own 25k BTC to himself.

Maybe MtGox should provide a feature to buy slowly, like x BTC every y minutes.

I not sure if I understand what has being said in the forum correctly  but sometime in December the reward for mining will half (50 to 25 block and difficulty will stay the same)
So for a miner to make the same $ he will have to double his hashing power --  I would think miners would expect bitcoins to be around $10 in December – so  incomes stay about the same

if 10K was later removed (as hazek writes), and not placed at lower ask price, then the "maybe he just wants to buy bitcoins" reason will only accommodate for 15k that were sold into market and not the last 10k.

nothing really, just a fake wall, in a day or two it will be back where it was last week.

Probably a bit late, but if I was doing the BitInstant strategic marketing - I'd get my ass to Greece and take advantage of the rampant fear these guys have over reverting to the Drachma. Euro to Bitcoin, I'd shout it in the streets, spread flyers, etc..

We're talking about a country where there are no more safe-deposit boxes to be had, because people are stuffing them with euros and other things.

Anyway, I think it would be an opportunity for bitcoin to shine. If I had the ability I'd be over there in a second, networking and getting bitcoin adoption going.

I like both parts of this answer

But certainly, BitInstant's ongoing improvements to the ease of Bitcoin acquisition has been a huge part of it. With every solid improvement in Bitcoin infrastructure, with other factors held constant, we should expect the price to rise by X amount since the utility of the system is higher than the day prior.

That was written in January. Things like this are a good reason why I'm skeptical.

Not really. One person could buy as much as everyone combined sells and the effect on price would be the same. And buying and selling are always equal in terms of amount sold.

The price went up because people value it more (with respect to supply), that's how a free market works.

Well, there is evidence. I've checked from Bitcoincharts that EUR volume has been increasing significantly. The least amount of increase is from Gox but overall the volume is up at least 50% lately. And I checked these numbers before the recent rally, now we've had nice EUR volume of course.

I do agree that Bitcoin is marginal as a safe haven asset so in regards to that the articles were very overblown. But EUR volume has increased, that's a fact.

GLBSE is seeing a lot of action now. The price of btc in usd started to increase not long after bonds became so popular. It might be that this sudden popularity of bonds (especially pirate pass throughs and mining bonds) might be in part driving the demand for btc, but probably not the past day's spike.

The funny thing about that is that there wasn't really much evidence that Europeans were moving into bitcoin any more than before.  Those articles, if they did anything, created the movement on which they were attempting to report.

Or maybe he just wants to buy bitcoins, plain and simple. A direct buy would cause a spillage to $7 if he bought just now. One strategy is to simply wall in and hope someone sells.

You are right, look at
http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/
it's something about 25000 Coins

My bet on the biggest reason is the media blitz regarding the flow of money from EUR to BTC. In fact the articles themselves were of the "buy bitcoins" kind. Other reasons include easier ways to actually buy bitcoins, mostly because of BitInstant. They seem to be stepping it up with the BitcoinSpinner integration and hints at ways of withdrawing bitcoins to cash. Meanwhile we've had Bitcoin Magazine which just announced it's going to be at Barnes & Nobles. We have Bitcoincard, Ellet... there is dozens of big things going on.

There is no single thing that explains the price increase. My understanding of the situation is that Bitcoin is simply growing overall, on many different areas. There has been an evolving megatrend going on for months which is now starting to accelerate, which means that we have more and more positive news, less negative news and fundamentally there is all kinds of fascinating stuff going on.

The bigger picture for Bitcoin is simply bright right now and that is causing the rally. I don't believe that there is significant manipulation going on, it's simply time. In fact with everything going on I would be surprised as hell to not see the price rocket. With a scarce money supply it's simply not sustainable to stay at $5 forever if Bitcoin continues to grow. With the rate of new coins coming in staying at $5 is growth by itself but it seems Bitcoin is growing faster than that.

more people buying than selling
its sorta how a free market works

We see that someone is moving price up using 30'000BTC wall on MtGox Exchange.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wall-observer-mtgoxusd-wall-movement-tracker-85687

correct me if I'm wrong.

BitInstant has made it a lot easier for people to get Bitcoins now so they can play SatoshiDice.

Here is why:http://alturl.com/w9qt4