Topic: Whats going on with Bitcoin hashrate? (Read 2829 times)

We'll be on the 28nm technology for awhile. We will see dies a little bit larger, some more speed. I think 2014 after the 2nd quarter we should see a greater likelihood of "in stock, pay for it now, we ship it now" equipment due to this. 2013 saw I think 3 or 4 generation hops on the dies which is why nobody ever kept anything in stock.

I'm done acquiring equipment for now for this very reason, I'm holding out to see what 2014 holds. Well, unless a great deal comes along then I'll get it.. haha.

We will see, by then they might come out with even better ASICS...

After 2nd quarter of 2014 maybe, not right now though. It's still on the rise. We haven't even seen all of the KNC units, much less Cointerra, BFL and other hardware which will be coming online.

Here comes the difficulty hike again, I though people said it ganna slow down soon.....

My thinking exactly.  Just kinda leveled off at around 4.5Ph, sometimes jumping up to 5.  Following the normal trajectory, it should be at about 6Ph now.

It may be variance enhanced but a 0.5 PH/s difference over 504 blocks can't be variance alone.  It could be one or more company testing a new batch of miners.  KNC is suppose to start shipping "mid nov" whatever day that means.

Looks like more than variance to me.

Not everyone researches deep enough to understand what they're getting into, they just see the hype and buy into it. Literally.

What about all the stuff selling on ebay? There most be at least 4-500 devices for sale there at any time. I guess when there's a drop in value, nervous people sell their mining equipment. That would lead to a drop when everything is disconnected and sent around the world? Btw, i saw a jupiter sell for 13000$ on ebay yesterday... Are people crazy? How will they ever get an ROI on that. Or is it like i suspect, someone putting miners on ebay and then bidding on it them self with another account?

30% increases? Haha.. Triple that and you'll be closer to what's going to hit.

Its not the 16th yet.

Monday Byteminr's 2nd contracts come online, so we should get a 5-10% increase, then another 5-10%. After that miners will start jumping off bridges and out of buildings. There is going to be some big tears for the people that are only getting there rigs on the 3rd orders.

One of my friends has cancelled his contract for a KNC miner after he worked out the potential risks vs gains. The only card worth getting and that can make some money will be the HashFast Sierra 1200GH/s
at $7088


However with overall expected 30% str increase jumps from end of Decem through to April, this miner becomes an expensive coffee table just over a year but at least you would of doubled your income if it remains on permanently and no delays for repairs or late shipments.

Both the KnC Saturn and Jupiter is likely never to see returns unless the price of bitcoin ends up being $375 which means you will break even. The Saturn will become a coffee table in 7-8 months

OFC if bitcoins are worth $1000 this time next year then it will be worth it. The price is where the true risk comes in, if it loses values then you lose out big time.

Or maybe the major pools found/identified and blocked a suspected selfish miner. 

Does anyone think it's possible that some of the miners who are suddenly finding blocks slower than usual are trying selfish mining?

I still think it was that super typhoon.

This is true. Eliguis block times are rather long right now.  Maybe diff will go DOWN this time.

Currently I think we're experiencing bad luck.  Eligius has only found 6 blocks last 24h and should find atleast 20 regularly.  Ghash.io and btcguild.com are also short on what they should be mining on a daily basis.

Just a lull, the waves are building out in the oceans they just haven't haven't reached the shore but they will in time.

KNC starts shipping Nov batch on or around 11/15.  The prior batch was >2 PH/s so no reason to think this one will be smaller.  I would say probably 2.5 PH/s.
KNC hasn't opened a Dec/Jan batch yet but I have no doubt they probably will.  I wouldn't expect anything less than 2 PH/s.  If units don't sell they can cut prices a lot to make sure they do.
HashFast is delayed but indicating they will ship Batch 1 on or around 12/15.  That will be ~0.5 PH/s (including IceDrill project).
HashFast batch 2 and upgrade timeline is unknown, but say worst case scenario it goes a month after the first batch, that will be another ~2 PH/s.
HashFast MPP window (which is likely to be max) closes end of Jan.  So expect another ~1 PH/s in Feb for that and probably another 1 PH/s (or more) in regular sales.
Cointerra is sticking with "end of Dec" but given they taped out a month late I think it is going to be more like Jan.  Still Dec or Jan it is another ~2 PH/s.

BFL ?  Well no friggin idea I doubt Monarch will be on time but it will happen eventually but probably too far out (late Feb?, early Aug?) to start considering.

Bitfury, ASICMiner, Avalon have been real quiet so it is hard to know what to expect but I am sure it isn't zero.

So I think we will have one maybe two quiet difficulty adjustments and then expect a solid climb with multiple waves shipping one after another.  
The only "good" news is that at one time a Petahash meant the difficulty would increase 100% now it means 25% and in the future it will mean less.  The % will have to eventually decline simply because doubling every month will start requiring an increasingly insane number of new units.

Been thinking the same thing. The only thing that throws me off is the wild swings from over 4 ph down to 3.x. Did a bunch of asics break just like that?!?

See:  https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/is-the-network-hash-dropping-325604