Topic: Whats your exit strategy? (Read 975 times)

I never think of exiting or quitting my post no matter how bad the situation may be. Since i started doing crypto for about 7 months now, my faith was tested when the bitcoins i bought at 13K USD went down to 5K USD and the alternate coins that i have plunges almost 30% of their market value too but i managed to HODL strong until the crisis ends. So i don't have an exit strategy for now because what i only have is fighting strategy.

My first dream was having 100k euros.
That i just invest somewhere secure -> basic all world ETF stock market the next 30 years.
Just so i have the 'save for old age' covered.
Then i would stop saving 25% of my monthly income and have 25% more income to spend monthly.

Then my idea was that i want to sell when my bitcoin worth = my total wealth reaches 400k euros in total.
This would mean with 6% interest (and 1% inflation) i would get the same amount of money per year as i do now from working + saving.
(or you could also say: this yearly amount is bigger than my yearly expenses)

I like to live on a small foot, and this would give me something i value more: freedom from ever 'having' to work again.
I never plan to stop working, but it would be nice never 'having' to work.

Then i thought better wait for a wealth of 500k,
like the idea before + 100k to 'spend more freely' on stuff.

Then i thought 600 or 800k,
just 'to be sure'.

Then i thought 1 million, so i can call myself a millionaire.

Then i thought 1.1 million, so i can still call myself a millionaire after i blew 100k.

Then i thought 1.3 million is also ok, perhaps i want to own a little place for living and work in the city.

Now, i basically want to wait for the next bubble to sell. And slowly start selling when i think there is exuberance.
And slowly keep selling till i have no crypto left. And hopefully ultimately i somehow sold around the top with this strategy.
And then after it crashes set buy orders. But in this process also cash out.

I was thinking buying stocks after the next stock market crash, thinking owning shares of companies is more secure than owning crypto.
On the other hand, cryptos get more and more secure. Bitcoin gets more and more secure. More % chance of it staying.

Perhaps i just leave it in there and just try to sell some at every bubble.
And give myself a certain kind of 'allowance' of money that i can spend.

--

I want to have no kids, and i want to spend all the money in my lifetime.
Hard to calculate of course, but that shall be the basis of my calculations.

Eg if i would be 40 years old, and i have 400k total worth,
and i estimate i will be 100 years old.
Let's say 400k for the last 20 years, that is 1666 euros per month (400k divided through 20years) + interest.
And interest in the years before (6% interest - 1% inflation = 5%) also amounts to 1666euros per month.


ps whoever says exit strategy is dumb -
it's just that hoarding money and never spending it is dumb - then life would be the same like you never had any money - i guess we can agree on that

So, i guess a better name for this whole thread is 'retirement strategy'

My thinking now is to put all my money into crypto - it being the asset class that i think gives the most return -
until i am at my magic retirement number and then move into starting spending instead of saving.

I wouldn't get into thinking about it too much or you just might end up like those guys over in the Wall Observer thread in Speculation. For those to much invested into bitcoin are posting about the price every 10 minutes and fretting about their holdings in crypto.

It is just enough thinking about it for 5 minutes to make you go completely bonkers.

Some of them didn't bother and just baghold it for quite while but majority of the players has been panicking and starting to play the dump schemes that's why we can see that one contributes the fall happening for this past weeks of bitcoins. But for now it's slowly recovering and might we can see some good tops coming and better to have some extra cash to load up some bits and earn with it.

Me either and long term holders didn't bother when bitcoin goes through some dips because he knew that eventually after some years bitcoin will be less affordable to everybody. Yeah maybe converting some when we need extra money when we ran out some but not definitely to exit for good. If I do that, I must be totally insane.

currently the world is still arguing related to bitcoin .. there is a legal or otherwise, I know that fiat is still dominant, but to get around this we still need to hold both the fiat currency and crypto currency ,, because most likely we can have all we want through bitcoin

My exit strategy is to only sell Bitcoin when I absolutely must, such as in the case of an emergency or for an important purchase (i.e. my new dental implants).

Maybe some day after Bitcoin has finished the vertical phase of the adoption curve and has leveled off, I'll find something that would be a better place to keep my wealth, but that's still years away.

For now, I'll continue to hold and spend only as required... and watch my wealth grow.

100k can be reachable in the next 5 to 10 years but 500k are very far away, the most important thing is to get more bitcoin, so the price bitcoin needs to reach so it changes our life is lower, with the current price of bitcoin I will get some benefits out of my holdings with 20k the benefits will increase greatly but if bitcoin reached something like 75k then my life will improve tremendously.

Lets see..

I HODL my BTC as a wildcard..
The way I look at it, what it's value is worth to me right now is not worth taking the chance of missing something huge..

I want to retire and travel low budget style via RV and/or possibly sail.. Boondock, island hop..

Right now I figure my crypto would fund me for 1 year.. Not enough..
If it got to 5-10 years I might consider leaving..
If it got to 10-20 years I'd probably be gone and see what I can't do to make ends meet for longer along the way..

If it goes to 50 years I'm set by by thank you satoshi!

So BTC 10-50 X from here I might start living off of it a little on my way traveling but I don't think I would just cash it all out to $ and go on that.. I would probably just cash out what I needed for expenses every month or so..

So $100,000 to $500,000 I would probably start using it for my life..

If I don't really need it by then or convince myself I need it by then.. Who knows how much will make it that far..

Thank you all for the thoughtful replies. I had not expected so many to respond to my musings of that afternoon. I wish I had the merits to give you all but did my best to sprinkle some over the last page.

After reading thru your replies and reflecting for awhile upon this strange and disturbing notion. I can say it had the desired effect...solidifying my thought process and validating my need to have a more detailed plan. What I hope also happened, is that some of you were also able to formulate a strategy that is suitable to your and your aspirations.

If you are a long term investor than holding do make lot of sense because this market being very volatile so we cannot predict easily the small ups and down and thus selling could be a loss making event.  If you are a small term investor or day trader than definitely you need to have a stop loss in place and make the decision accordingly.

I have mentioned this in other threads Crypto is like venture capital, very volatile snd some of the coin can be expected to produce geometric returns and others can be expected to fall to zero. In between there will be massive volatility.

Given the high volatility and possibility of unforeseen events like exchange hacks or exchange bankruptcies, it feel its important to diversify across the number of coins (>30 if possible), number of exchanges, number of wallets (some at exchanges, some hardware wallets) and allocation to different consensus methodologies (e.g. not invest all the capital in PoW coins). This is particularly important if the investor has a large portfolio either in absolute dollar terms or as a percentage of his or her net worth.    

In terms of when to exit, i think the time frame should be dictated by required spending. If you need the capital to purchase a house or pay for retirement expenses then so be it. But other words I feel buy and hold is a good strategy and this will tend to be tax efficient.  

Like always the best strategy is to diversify, do not send all your coins to a single exchange, send your coins to several exchanges, that way if one of those decides to do something fishy you only lose a small part of your bitcoins and not everything, however I think that in the future that is not going to be a problem since we will be able to use bitcoin directly without having to sell for fiat first.

I have some figured in mind, they are not however figures for bitcoin price but figures for my worth in usd. I will cash out a portion on reaching 150k and then if one day I can ever reach $1m+ I will cash out probably 70-80% of it and almost start again with the rest. That money at that point can set me up for life. This is all subject to change depending on how long it takes and how bullish I am about the markets however.

Same here! I really don't have an exit strategy as I believe that bitcoin would be here for a long time and even if I am not here anymore bitcoin would still be here so no use of having an exit strategy. I am just cashing out from time to time though with some of my profits because I need to pay some bills in addition to my fiat earnings cause I am short with it. For as long as cryptocurrency would be allowed in our country then I would not stop earning and trading it.

A true bitcoin believer will not get appointments as bitcoin prices are known for quick bounce back and when bitcoin prices will be testing $20,000 price levels then we can see all the investors turning into profits regardless of their different buying price levels. This is how, so far bitcoin prices are doing and we can expect these to be continued in this year also.

When we are expecting bitcoin prices to continue its rally then there will be no meaning of having any exit strategy. Just holding and spending some portions of bitcoins for life's need alone more than enough for all the true bitcoin believers. 

you are talking about the devaluation of Fiat every day, is it already possible to say about the fluctuation in the price of Bitcoin? I just imagine the disappointment of those users who bought Bitcoin at $ 15,000 after it dropped from $ 20,000.

Honestly, I don't even have an exit strategy and that isn't because I haven't thought of it. It is because I literally don't plan to exit my holdings of BTC and this change only happened recently when I delved further into everything. Why would I want to get into fiat which is getting devalued everyday when I can stay in an asset that appreciates on a yoy basis? It makes perfect sense to me to stay, granted you can pay your bills and whatnot.

HOLD your bitcoin for the long term. You can invest half or quarter of your bitcoin holdings into altcoins that have a good team and community and also that have clear goals and objectives. And then let the profits run! Book partial profits when you find good projects to invest or when you need cash for emergencies.

You're a factor 20 off.  That is because bitcoin has nothing to do with money.  So the broad money supply M2, we don't care.  Bitcoin is a highly speculative asset, that has its place in the financial circus of the derivatives, where big players bet against one another in a zero-sum game.  It doesn't play in the money market, but the derivatives market.  Well, that game is about $1.6 quadrillion.  If bitcoin eats it all (it won't, because it wouldn't make sense: you need a market, so the whole crypto market), that would bring a single bitcoin to $80 million.  Not $4 million.