In percentage terms, it's not outrageous at all. Using Bitstamp prices:
2015 low: $152
2017 high: $19,666
That's a 12,838% rise. Apply that to the 2018 low of $3,122 and we're looking at $400K+. That's just one bull market cycle.
Everyone also looks at 2011 and 2013 and assumes the next cycle must be smaller, but I'm keeping an open mind about that. For example, if we apply 2011's gains bottom to top, the next cycle target would be $1.8 million.
Am I expecting that in the next bull market? No, but I'm not ruling it out either. With Bitcoin, the potential upside is endless.
I can be open minded about gold too and pull out its lows and highs and assume the same will happen again. The thing is that it doesn't have to happen just because it happened before.
You sound just like I did in 2015. I lost a lot of BTC being bearish in the early stages of that bull market. Anything is possible but betting the trend (2011, 2013, 2017) is a lot safer than assuming "this time will be different." It usually isn't.
Bitcoin isn't always going to be a hot low priced asset class. I consider its long term up side to realistically be $50-$100k, but after that the risk of buying it doesn't outweigh the risk of seeing it go back to current levels or even lower.
You and everybody else on this forum, apparently. Everybody thinking $100K is the maximum upside (if they can imagine it at all!) makes me confident we're going much, much higher.
I just don't see the demand reach that far because most people in developed countries don't need Bitcoin.
Most people don't need gold or stocks either. So what? They want to park their money in something that isn't cash. I also don't think small retail investors will be the predominant driver of Bitcoin price in the coming decades.