Topic: When does adoption begin to push up BTC price? - page 2. (Read 2148 times)
Threads like this remind me why it's fine that I don't know what the price will be tomorrow or an hour from now. The price is whatever the total market dictates it to be, whatever the current majority motivation. I don't worry about it. Mostly because it doesn't much matter but also because it is pointless without a way to get solid numbers.
Yes and other articles that state if BTC were to take over the market currently serviced by Western Union and Amazon.com alone, the price would be forced upwards to $40,000 per BTC.
This is what I am referring to.
That isn't "speculation". That is a value moved by demand/supply/commerce.
As I said there may always be a "buffer" of speculation on top of the 'real' value ... but at some point the 'real' supply/demand/commerce is going to start pushing the price upwards without stopping. Even if it only pushes it slowly.
Im wondering when that will begin.
-B-
This is what I am referring to.
That isn't "speculation". That is a value moved by demand/supply/commerce.
As I said there may always be a "buffer" of speculation on top of the 'real' value ... but at some point the 'real' supply/demand/commerce is going to start pushing the price upwards without stopping. Even if it only pushes it slowly.
Im wondering when that will begin.
-B-
I remember reading somewhere that if bitcoin currently was merely used as a payment system and not an investment vehicle the price would be about $60. I think it was Marc Andreessen who recently said this.
You know what I am getting at.
There is absolutely a speculation price, and a more realistic price moved by adoption/commerce demand.
There have been countless threads on the topic, usually titled with: "Whats the real value of Bitcoin".
Countless articles. you know what I mean.
It is not all the same thing.
This is sort of taking the conversation off track.
There is absolutely a speculation price, and a more realistic price moved by adoption/commerce demand.
There have been countless threads on the topic, usually titled with: "Whats the real value of Bitcoin".
Countless articles. you know what I mean.
It is not all the same thing.
This is sort of taking the conversation off track.
The real value is always whatever the immediate going rate is. Which is also pure speculation. You can't separate the two, they are the same.
There are still two sets of numbers.
1) The real value of bitcoin based on adoption and supply/demand for commerce
2) The value of bitcoin motivated by speculation.
I don't believe its all speculation. I believe there are two levels that make up the current price.
At some point, adoption/supply/demand for commerce will begin to push up the market price. There may always be a buffer of speculation on top of it, but we should see a continually increasing value overall once this starts to happen. Right now all we see are high values that "dont crash as far". That tells me the "real value" is slowly increasing ... as a subset of the current market value.
-B-
1) The real value of bitcoin based on adoption and supply/demand for commerce
2) The value of bitcoin motivated by speculation.
I don't believe its all speculation. I believe there are two levels that make up the current price.
At some point, adoption/supply/demand for commerce will begin to push up the market price. There may always be a buffer of speculation on top of it, but we should see a continually increasing value overall once this starts to happen. Right now all we see are high values that "dont crash as far". That tells me the "real value" is slowly increasing ... as a subset of the current market value.
-B-
It's all speculation. When you buy bitcoin with the purpose of immediately selling them again for a product or service you are speculating that the money you pay for them will turn out to be worth the desired product or service. There is no such thing as not speculating in finances. Not even if you are not aware that that is what you are doing.
Ok.
I still feel like there's a bubbling "number" for the real value of Bitcoin, which is "bubbling" around at ... say .... $320 .... and everything above that is speculation value. So next month that number bubbles to $340 .... then $410 in a few months ....
Eventually at some point, that "real value" matches the "current market value" .... and from that point the numbers start to rise ... being dragged upwards by actual adoption and supply/demand.
Versus speculation.
-B-
I still feel like there's a bubbling "number" for the real value of Bitcoin, which is "bubbling" around at ... say .... $320 .... and everything above that is speculation value. So next month that number bubbles to $340 .... then $410 in a few months ....
Eventually at some point, that "real value" matches the "current market value" .... and from that point the numbers start to rise ... being dragged upwards by actual adoption and supply/demand.
Versus speculation.
-B-
overstock isn't selling to the market.
Actually I think the current dynamic is actually one of coins moving from the hands of very early adopters to overstock and tigerdirect for example, who then sell for fiat.
The recent adoption has been priced-in already. Question is when will regular Joes notice it and start pouring money in?
We all saw China frantically purchasing all at once, thereby shoving the price from $300 to $1200 practically overnight.
Now all that nonsense is gone, Gox failed, etc.
I just read an article today stating:
"The number of business accepting Bitcoin as a currency has grown sharply in the last year. They now number in the thousands."
At some point adoption levels need to start "latching into" the market price, and begin "dragging it upwards". At some point, speculation value will be replaced by demand, right? Its just strange to me that we aren't seeing that yet. I often wonder what the "true value" of a Bitcoin is, if you were to eliminate speculation.
By true value, I mean its value supported 100% by adoption, commerce, and demand for more. We must still be in the lower hundreds. Because despite thousands of new merchants, the price doesn't seem to have begun nudging upwards permanently.
-B-
Now all that nonsense is gone, Gox failed, etc.
I just read an article today stating:
"The number of business accepting Bitcoin as a currency has grown sharply in the last year. They now number in the thousands."
At some point adoption levels need to start "latching into" the market price, and begin "dragging it upwards". At some point, speculation value will be replaced by demand, right? Its just strange to me that we aren't seeing that yet. I often wonder what the "true value" of a Bitcoin is, if you were to eliminate speculation.
By true value, I mean its value supported 100% by adoption, commerce, and demand for more. We must still be in the lower hundreds. Because despite thousands of new merchants, the price doesn't seem to have begun nudging upwards permanently.
-B-
Permanently is a hard word. Stable is also a hard word in the bitcoin world so dont expect too much reasonable things to happen
We all saw China frantically purchasing all at once, thereby shoving the price from $300 to $1200 practically overnight.
Now all that nonsense is gone, Gox failed, etc.
I just read an article today stating:
"The number of business accepting Bitcoin as a currency has grown sharply in the last year. They now number in the thousands."
At some point adoption levels need to start "latching into" the market price, and begin "dragging it upwards". At some point, speculation value will be replaced by demand, right? Its just strange to me that we aren't seeing that yet. I often wonder what the "true value" of a Bitcoin is, if you were to eliminate speculation.
By true value, I mean its value supported 100% by adoption, commerce, and demand for more. We must still be in the lower hundreds. Because despite thousands of new merchants, the price doesn't seem to have begun nudging upwards permanently.
-B-
Now all that nonsense is gone, Gox failed, etc.
I just read an article today stating:
"The number of business accepting Bitcoin as a currency has grown sharply in the last year. They now number in the thousands."
At some point adoption levels need to start "latching into" the market price, and begin "dragging it upwards". At some point, speculation value will be replaced by demand, right? Its just strange to me that we aren't seeing that yet. I often wonder what the "true value" of a Bitcoin is, if you were to eliminate speculation.
By true value, I mean its value supported 100% by adoption, commerce, and demand for more. We must still be in the lower hundreds. Because despite thousands of new merchants, the price doesn't seem to have begun nudging upwards permanently.
-B-
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