When The Inevitable Happens With The Dump - What Will Bitcoin Be Worth?

JollyGood

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It will be a big hit for many to that if they lose 70-85% of the value of Bitcoin when the eventual crash happens. The image by qwizzie was a great visual take on how things can take a turn and the time it takes to reach all time highs.

Quote from: abel1337 on January 19, 2021, 05:23:26 PM

Quote from: JollyGood on January 19, 2021, 02:42:09 PM

Quote from: qwizzie on January 19, 2021, 10:12:54 AM

Going by what is in the image, things are going to be big when the collapse happens.

For those that purchased Bitcoin at $40,000, if an 80% hit was to be taken then it means losing $32,000 and being left with just $8,000

I wonder how many people will end up destitute and how many will end up struggling. Buying and selling at the right time is what makes a successful trader, unfortunately too many people buy when the wave is high then discover during the crash they lost almost everything.

History repeats itself and dropping more than 80% is very possible. This is why we should know how the market moves and find the right time to buy and to sell our assets. I remember those who are new to crypto in the year 2017 who get caught by the crash, I hope that if they are still into crypto right now they know what to do when the correction comes.

wxa7115

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Quote from: FireBallex on January 26, 2021, 01:58:19 AM

If bitcoin dominance decrease alot and altcoins are given the chance to pump hard what do you think will happen? There are millions waiting to sell off their altcoin bags through altcoin season, if this happens we are going to a long bear market once again, there will surely be massive sell off

That is the biggest problem, there are many people looking to sell their bags, but to begin with many of those that are holding those coins hold coins that are several years old and they invested out of hype and nothing more, those people will never recover their money as people are not going to invest in coins that old and prefer newer coins.

So only those that held reasonable good coins have a chance to sell in the case of an altcoin market, which lead us to the second problem, even if there was a lot of buying pressure it will be nullified by the selling pressure of those bag holders diminishing the chances of an altcoin season significantly.

Globb0

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Quote from: FireBallex on January 26, 2021, 01:58:19 AM

If bitcoin dominance decrease alot and altcoins are given the chance to pump hard what do you think will happen? There are millions waiting to sell off their altcoin bags through altcoin season, if this happens we are going to a long bear market once again, there will surely be massive sell off

I think you described the bitcoin pump that will be the result.

A tsunami of money running back to bitcon, potentially.

FireBallex

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If bitcoin dominance decrease alot and altcoins are given the chance to pump hard what do you think will happen? There are millions waiting to sell off their altcoin bags through altcoin season, if this happens we are going to a long bear market once again, there will surely be massive sell off

Kelvinid

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If we compute an 80% decrease from its ATH, it plays below $10k. And yet, we are still far from it and that seems a long wait to go or we remain at the high level rejected the next bearish season for the first time. If we are buying at $5k before, even the dump will come we are still profiting.

That to say that history repeats itself, I don't think it was happening for this time. TBH, that was not what I saw in the market trend but to see a different situation in which the pandemic is a big factor that causes it changes and making another great history.

wxa7115

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Quote from: JollyGood on January 19, 2021, 02:42:09 PM

Quote from: qwizzie on January 19, 2021, 10:12:54 AM

Going by what is in the image, things are going to be big when the collapse happens.

For those that purchased Bitcoin at $40,000, if an 80% hit was to be taken then it means losing $32,000 and being left with just $8,000

I wonder how many people will end up destitute and how many will end up struggling. Buying and selling at the right time is what makes a successful trader, unfortunately too many people buy when the wave is high then discover during the crash they lost almost everything.

For that to happen bitcoin will have to go lower than its previous ATH which is something that has not happened, this is why many are speculating that this bull run needs to reach at least 100k, that way if it crashes 80% we go back to 20k, however it is also possible that the next cash is not going to be as big and bitcoin only losses 50% of its value and we reach 20k as well.

At this point everything is speculation but personally I do not see bitcoin going below 10k level as institutional investors will buy the hell out of bitcoin if the price was anywhere near it.

UnDerDoG81

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6K really?? Lol... Would be the first time in Bitcoin history we go below the ATH of the previous cycle.

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Quote from: abel1337 on January 19, 2021, 05:23:26 PM

History repeats itself and dropping more than 80% is very possible. This is why we should know how the market moves and find the right time to buy and to sell our assets. I remember those who are new to crypto in the year 2017 who get caught by the crash, I hope that if they are still into crypto right now they know what to do when the correction comes.

Theoretically, all people know what to do on a correction (although it is quite difficult to distinguish between a correction and a trend change), the only question is the availability of free money. Life is such that most people do not have free money, and using credit money in the crypto market is super unreliable.

Mahanton

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Quote from: Gozie51 on January 21, 2021, 04:08:18 PM

Quote from: Stedsm on January 19, 2021, 02:24:33 PM

I smell a massive dump to be happening in a few weeks if not days, but for that to happen, I believe BTC needs to get under $29k for a confirmation that the bullish trend is changing and then the trend will be biased until BTC goes either way. I firmly believe it should get down some day when that so-called institution decides to bring out their loaded guns (BTC which were accumulated between $6k to $20k) and suck the hell outta investors when they start tumbling the markets. But it won't be as quick as we saw in 2018, this time it'll be a slow death.

Your speculation of $29k seem to be coming closer if the real fall is going to happen actually. The price has dropped from the ATH now at $31k and that is a huge fall within few days. Maybe is trying to rest at a good spot for another major direction which is either up or down but I don't think is going down back to $6k.

We cant tell until it would happen even though we are bit away but it could really crash back into that price.Inevitable? possibly yes and no because no one can ever predict on what
would happen next. Just like now where we do see some issue or sentiment in the market where price had dipped down for a significant percentage but to know that there are
days where its price do corrrects without having any news or sentiments in the market.For now we have seen one and this might be a trigger for a bear market once again.

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Quote from: Stedsm on January 19, 2021, 02:24:33 PM

I smell a massive dump to be happening in a few weeks if not days, but for that to happen, I believe BTC needs to get under $29k for a confirmation that the bullish trend is changing and then the trend will be biased until BTC goes either way. I firmly believe it should get down some day when that so-called institution decides to bring out their loaded guns (BTC which were accumulated between $6k to $20k) and suck the hell outta investors when they start tumbling the markets. But it won't be as quick as we saw in 2018, this time it'll be a slow death.

Your speculation of $29k seem to be coming closer if the real fall is going to happen actually. The price has dropped from the ATH now at $31k and that is a huge fall within few days. Maybe is trying to rest at a good spot for another major direction which is either up or down but I don't think is going down back to $6k.

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Quote from: JollyGood on January 19, 2021, 02:42:09 PM

Quote from: qwizzie on January 19, 2021, 10:12:54 AM

Going by what is in the image, things are going to be big when the collapse happens.

For those that purchased Bitcoin at $40,000, if an 80% hit was to be taken then it means losing $32,000 and being left with just $8,000

I wonder how many people will end up destitute and how many will end up struggling. Buying and selling at the right time is what makes a successful trader, unfortunately too many people buy when the wave is high then discover during the crash they lost almost everything.

History repeats itself and dropping more than 80% is very possible. This is why we should know how the market moves and find the right time to buy and to sell our assets. I remember those who are new to crypto in the year 2017 who get caught by the crash, I hope that if they are still into crypto right now they know what to do when the correction comes.

JollyGood

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Quote from: qwizzie on January 19, 2021, 10:12:54 AM

Going by what is in the image, things are going to be big when the collapse happens.

For those that purchased Bitcoin at $40,000, if an 80% hit was to be taken then it means losing $32,000 and being left with just $8,000

I wonder how many people will end up destitute and how many will end up struggling. Buying and selling at the right time is what makes a successful trader, unfortunately too many people buy when the wave is high then discover during the crash they lost almost everything.

Stedsm

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I smell a massive dump to be happening in a few weeks if not days, but for that to happen, I believe BTC needs to get under $29k for a confirmation that the bullish trend is changing and then the trend will be biased until BTC goes either way. I firmly believe it should get down some day when that so-called institution decides to bring out their loaded guns (BTC which were accumulated between $6k to $20k) and suck the hell outta investors when they start tumbling the markets. But it won't be as quick as we saw in 2018, this time it'll be a slow death.

wxa7115

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Quote from: JimboToronto on January 15, 2021, 09:14:00 AM

We had the dump. It went all the way down to $30k.

Next big correction probably won't occur until after we hit 6 digits. Then it might go as low as $40k-$50k rock bottom.

Institutional investors don't panic sell. Past large crashes were the result of weak-handed retail speculators. They are no longer the majority.

I think that this is the main factor that those that are speculating with the price are ignoring, the landscape and the composition of this market has changed dramatically, institutional investors have changed the game forever, they are in for the long haul and they are not going to get scared in the same way that retail investors did back in the day.

If they have come to this market is because they are completely convinced that bitcoin is the future and it is the right way to protect the value of their money, and if the price of bitcoin has grown so much with only a few institutional investors it is fair to wonder what will happen when a significant number of them begin to see bitcoin as a store of value when the US dollar begins to crash, I really think that at that point even our wildest predictions will come up short.

qwizzie

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Source : https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/a4yrux/bitcoin_is_a_game_of_accumulation/

I have put that set of data into a bar chart and extended the data set :

How low will the Bitcoin price go this time ? An open question for now. I would not be surprised if another of those heavy (-80%) corrections occur.
Time intervals between these Bitcoin ATH's :

ATH 2011 ($35)
11-JUN-2011

NEW ATH 2013 ($260)
NEW ATH DATE : 10-APRIL-2013

# of months to new ATH : 22 Months

ATH 2013 ($260)
10-APRIL-2013

NEW ATH 2013 ($1,140)
NEW ATH DATE : 29-NOV-2013

# of months to new ATH : 7 Months

ATH 2013 (1,140)
29-NOV-2013

NEW ATH 2017 ($19,900)
NEW ATH DATE : 17-DEC-2017

# of months to new ATH : 49 Months

ATH 2017 (19,900)
17-DEC-2017

NEW ATH 2021 ($42,000)
NEW ATH DATE : 08-JAN-2021

# of months to new ATH : 37 Months

ATH 2021 ($42,000)
08-JAN-2021

NEW ATH ??
NEW ATH DATE : ??

# of months to new ATH : ??

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Quote from: JollyGood on January 19, 2021, 08:59:07 AM

I agree with you it does seem highly unlikely that the price of Bitcoin will go back down to 4 digits but there has to be some sort of correction at some stage and we have not seen a massive dump and sell-off just yet so until that happens we will not know.

Quote from: LogitechMouse on January 15, 2021, 02:59:00 AM

~$20,000 or near that will be the price of Bitcoin if the dump will happen anytime soon.

Many are already expecting for Bitcoin to make a big correction after its movement this past month. Many are just waiting for it to happen so that they can enter at a lower price. Right now, Bitcoin is doing a sideways pattern at the $30,000-$40,000 price but I'm expecting for a correction to the supports will happen soon.

One thing is for sure though, I don't see Bitcoin's price going back to 4 digits again or at the $10,000 price again. Congrats to those who bought at these prices

.

a drop from 41k to 31k is not big enough?

it is close to 30%

You need to look at it from other levels.

In Dec 2017 when coins touched 20k
In July 2019 when coins got over 13k

In Jan 2021 when coins are 36 to 41k

Which was the best month for a miner?

Dec 2017

the second best month

Was July 2019

and Jan 2021 is the third best month but very soon to become better than July of 2019

So if and when we get to 45-50k with current difficulty we are better off than July 2019 as a miner

To match Dec 2017 as a miner we need to be in the 70-80k price at the current difficulty.

so correction is not needed from the mining viewpoint just yet.

I would also argue every country is printing money so on that alone tack on 25% boost to BTC
and of course Norway is investing in BTC for each and every citizen. 1 or 2 bucks each but it is a start.
Miami wants to put $$ into BTC for its pension plans.
Other institutions are looking to drop money into BTC

We could have along way to go to top out and then correct.

JollyGood

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I agree with you it does seem highly unlikely that the price of Bitcoin will go back down to 4 digits but there has to be some sort of correction at some stage and we have not seen a massive dump and sell-off just yet so until that happens we will not know.

Quote from: LogitechMouse on January 15, 2021, 02:59:00 AM

~$20,000 or near that will be the price of Bitcoin if the dump will happen anytime soon.

Many are already expecting for Bitcoin to make a big correction after its movement this past month. Many are just waiting for it to happen so that they can enter at a lower price. Right now, Bitcoin is doing a sideways pattern at the $30,000-$40,000 price but I'm expecting for a correction to the supports will happen soon.

One thing is for sure though, I don't see Bitcoin's price going back to 4 digits again or at the $10,000 price again. Congrats to those who bought at these prices

.

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Quote from: philipma1957 on January 18, 2021, 10:53:55 PM

Quote from: JollyGood on January 07, 2021, 07:44:43 PM

I think it is going to happen very soon, the dump will be happening but what will happen when everything on CMC shows red? How far will Bitcoin fall?

After the crash I think it might settle around the $12,000-$13,000 mark before finding a way to work upwards again over a period of time.

The all time high was set just hours ago of $40,180.37 according to CMC

So we dumped to 30k and are headed sideways which means 60 is on target 🎯.

My guess is 60 and down to 35k

I agree with you, we probably won’t see it under 20k anytime soon if at all, those who were here when bitcoin went from a few hundred to a thousand they know what I’m talking about. Moreover, when big players like grayscale and MicroStrategy joined the party, bitcoin is no longer a junkey money for people to buy join on the dark web. Now it’s an investment instrument and people a buying more than it’s mined then the demand is insane… until there are more regulations…

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Quote from: JollyGood on January 07, 2021, 07:44:43 PM

I think it is going to happen very soon, the dump will be happening but what will happen when everything on CMC shows red? How far will Bitcoin fall?

After the crash I think it might settle around the $12,000-$13,000 mark before finding a way to work upwards again over a period of time.

The all time high was set just hours ago of $40,180.37 according to CMC

So we dumped to 30k and are headed sideways which means 60 is on target 🎯.

My guess is 60 and down to 35k

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Quote from: JollyGood on January 07, 2021, 07:44:43 PM

I think it is going to happen very soon, the dump will be happening but what will happen when everything on CMC shows red? How far will Bitcoin fall?

After the crash I think it might settle around the $12,000-$13,000 mark before finding a way to work upwards again over a period of time.

The all time high was set just hours ago of $40,180.37 according to CMC

I think it is completely plausible that BTC may fall to $20k and test the support there.

But I do expect that level to hold up. The market is still FOMOing hard and there is a very good narrative for bulls to build upon this time around with a ton of institutional investment heading into the market.

I see some people expecting a bear market to hit, which imo is completely unlikely at this stage. Don't forget that we are still waiting on several pieces of potentially very bullish news, including a possible ETF approval on the horizon.

Topic: When The Inevitable Happens With The Dump - What Will Bitcoin Be Worth? (Read 949 times)