Topic: When to buy one time off bitcoin. - page 4. (Read 806 times)

Actually bitcoin doesn't have any specific time someone can invest in Bitcoin, we can only purchase anytime we have the money to purchase Bitcoin, because you may have in mind that Bitcoin price is going up and  that's opportunity for you to buy Bitcoin, and after purchasing the price began to fall instead of rising, and same thing is applicable to when the price is on falling situation, many people emphasis that the perfect time to invest in Bitcoin is when is falling, when you rush and invest and it happened to experience bearish, so from my analysis of Bitcoin theirs no perfect time someone can invest in Bitcoin, the scenario is that anytime you have funds you can invest in Bitcoin.

I feel like the chart should be showing what happens near it but the reality is that after a year or so from the halving, each time it happens, the price goes up, it went up before and it could happen again. I understand that it may not be a near the halving level and it looks like maybe it has nothing to do with it when you look at that, like 2-3 months before and 2-3 months after could be calm and not really a huge deal.

But, I suggest you to look at 1 year before and 1 year after and see the changes in the price. One of the biggest examples will be this year, look at the price average this year in 2023, then look at it at 2024 and compare that to 2025. I bet you that in 2023 we will do fine, in 2024 we will do good and in 2025 we will do great, and obviously in 2026 we will do terrible again just like 2018 or in 2022 as well.

The bitcoin halving can happen at any moment, that's why it remains unpredictable and most bitcoin enthusiasts in this industry know this too. Now if you don't do the dca that is your choice and maybe you have the ability to buy bitcoin in bulk.

      But among the others who do dca, maybe most of them don't buy bitcoin in large amounts, so they apply it for that anyway they have accumulated bitcoin before the halving itself comes.

Well, I am pretty sure that a strong bull run will  be achieved after 4-5 months from the next halving probably in September or October 2024. In fact, in previous Bitcoin halving that’s what exactly happened , the price increased significantly  after 150 days from the event. For example in 2012 , the value of BTC went from $12 to $1000 , and in 2016 it went from $670 to  $ 2550. In conclusion the more you HODL and invest during this year, the larger returns in next 1-2 years However, nobody knows what the future will bring for Bitcoin and generally cryptocurrencies so it is pretty difficult to predict accurate prices especially in middle and long term.

Well, it's a good thing no one said that then.


Care to share what information do you use to make investment decisions and what's your decision-making process? Don't be shy.


Good luck OP, but remember to set yourself realistic profit targets, decide at what point do you intend to sell and stick to it. Don't get too greedy, hitting the exact top is close to impossible, so as long as you end up with a profit - you can be happy with yourself.

You surprise and confuse me if you haven't bought any bitcoins yet. Because the perfect time to buy bitcoin has passed, and if you are still greedy and waiting for a new bottom, you will regret it even more. In my opinion, buy now and no DCA. I believe bitcoin will still be correct, but dumping again is unlikely. We have no more black swan events to do that.

It actually depends on how significant a halving would be. This will determine the popularity of the halving itself which could somehow impact the price of Bitcoin weeks prior and after the halving. The duration of the price movement upwards or downwards may also continue depending on various factors like economic or crypto related events. Anyway, I think it would be best to buy little by little when possible rather than wait till a few weeks before or after the halving. This isn't a financial advice though, just sharing what I myself would prefer to do after I figure out what the possible bottom may be in the coming weeks since it's quite hard to make decisions right now seeing how the market is currently moving.

OP asked question about how previous halvings impacted the BTC price. I have delivered the answer in a form of a chart found on google. However, in the last sentence of my post i wrote that halving is not a major force that moves prices, and I even get into discussion with other bitcointalk members describing how irrelevant 4th halving is from a fundamental point of view. But you certainly know that, because you sure didn't do it so that you read only the first post, and after seeing the first picture, you started writing anything just to make another post to meet signature requirements? "you are not so naive [...], right?"

I can't say about bull run, but I have seen that Bitcoin's high gets priced in every time before the halving takes place. However, it was all in the past as we saw it happening, so there is no guarantee that it'll happen again in the near future. So don't rely on the halving part and buy BTC now and sell it just before halving takes place. Then buy back again once it is oversold.

In fact, many people will still be looking for the best time to make a lump sum invest rather than DCA each new dip. Whereas DCA is the most recommended strategy when an investor doubts that the price is still too expensive to invest, in fact DCA has helped many people to buy at least a few percent of bitcoins from the total budget if the price goes increase.

But if the OP is confident of holding onto his bitcoin long term, then surely buying a lump sum now isn't such a bad thing instead of waiting for a bigger drop. So buying now is a good choice, even if you don't want to do it with lump sum. Don't get your hopes up for deeper declines when the bear market is over, meaning a new cycle is about to start.

In my personal opinion, if you want to use the one time buy Bitcoin method and hold it for a long time I might say this time you can do it, because considering the market is experiencing a price correction with a decent and relatively high percentage you can take advantage of it, now the price is at below $30k, some long term Investors I think they have done it, maybe in a few months Bitcoin will be in the $30k-$45k range.

The increase on the price caused by the halving is not an instantaneous process, the reason behind the price increase is that as the miners are obtaining less bitcoin for each block they mine, they become more reluctant to sell for such a low price as if they did then they will be doing so at a loss, so they increase the price at which they sell and the market reacts to this, however I will suggest that you change your attitude, as it seems as if you are trying to buy at the very bottom of the market and this is something only a fortune few are able to do.

There is no perfect time to buy Bitcoin, only good/bad times in the immediate term, but otherwise historically anytime is a good time to buy Bitcoin. Even buying the highs at $20K in 2017 wasn't the worst idea some years later. Truth is no-one knows for sure if Bitcoin will ever return to $20K, or even $15K, however generally buying Bitcoin when it's at a discount of 50%+ is usually a good time.


Given you referenced Bitcoin's 4 year cycle, then there are two straight forward ways to trade/invest if this is what you're interested in:

1. Buy the 4 year moving average in order to get the average price over the past 4 years, without having to DCA every week for 4 years. This was around $22K in June last year and now is around $25K this month. Arguably buying at $25K this year could be more comfortable than $22K last year, as price remained below this level for over 6 months, where now it seems less downside is more likely than last year.

2. Buy after the halving, or even 6-months prior to it for example (so around end of year) if you don't want to risk missing out on a pre-havling pump*. This has also historically been a good time to invest in Bitcoin, although at the same time price could be overvalued at the end of the year compared to current prices, so there is always risk involved, but time-wise there shouldn't be too much downside.

That's just a couple of strategies that investors have used in the past, so not guarantied to be successful in the future, and otherwise shouldn't be considered financial advise 

*It's worth noting that in the last cycle many anticipated there to be a pre-halving pump, as opposed to only post-halving, because the halving would be priced in in advance after successfully increasing price after the 2016 halving. The covid crash that is largely considered a black swan event put an end to this pre-halving pump possibility, but it doesn't mean it won't happen this time around.

I've seen and heard conversations of investors or crypto experts about speculation and halving of Bitcoin from time to time.

There are two speculations that are often used by current Bitcoin investors/buyers to target Bitcoin halving in the future.
1. If they want to buy Bitcoin, they don't rely on speculation, they start to focus on buying Bitcoin one year after the halving happened, they don't care about Bitcoin today $ 20k tomorrow $ 25k, their main goal is to buy and target the next halving.
they believe, after one year the price of Bitcoin has been at its lowest point.
2. Those who want to buy Bitcoin are always guided by data, statistics, crypto markets from various sources to start buying Bitcoin.
This second method, they think there is a time to buy Bitcoin at the right time and at the wrong time, but they are only guided by speculators.

Of the two things that I told you, of course you can think now, the first way you can buy Bitcoin for the halving is coming and the second way maybe now you have to research speculation in depth again, maybe now Bitcoin is already in a bear market orwant to go to the bull market.

The choice is yours, sure the first path buy now and not sure choose the second path, remember we never know what will happen to the crypto or Bitcoin market in the future, belief in yourself that leads someone to success.

We all on this forum want answers to your questions.

The problem is that NOBODY knows in what scenario events will develop after the halving. If someone says they know, don't believe them.

Maybe stop asking questions, the answers to which, in principle, can not be obtained?

BTC charts you will get, but absolutely it doesn't mean anything. There are no guarantees that the real chart will be just like that. You are not so naive as to believe the charts from Google, right? Even more so, to use this information for investment.

Bitcoin is having a correction at the moment, it went above $30k, and even hit $31k once but couldn't hold it there and is already back to $27k by now and still declining. So basically, we can't be sure if the price will get back to $20k or not, but it's guaranteed that there will be better prices for those who are waiting to buy more.

Halving might give a boost to the price but it's not actually the reason why Bitcoin will get into a bull cycle. We might be in the bull run even before the halving and when the halving reaches, the price might get a bit of a boost from that point.

This is my first time of hearing this version of story. It sounds interesting and practical. It looks like what has happened before or what came out of experience. I think I will go with this in one aspect. But since I cannot actually wait till 2025, I would follow the advice of people here even when they said it is not an investment advice.
I will continue to be active here, I believe as the market continues to hover, it will be getting clearer on what actually will happen during or after the halving.

Look at history of the price, usually the hype will start a few months before the halving and will start go sideways during the halving period, you should be more concern after the halving because that is the time where momentum get’s more active. There might be changes though as the market becomes more volatile, if I were you start buying some now while the price is still cheap, there is no need to wait for the halving before you prepare, start doing it now the early the better.

Bitcoin price will increase as people won't what to miss out thinking the price will pump high immediately the halving is over. After the halving, a correction in price will happen and people will get disappointed as Bitcoin wouldn't pump as they expected and also the corrections happens as a result of traders taking profits, if you want to buy, buy now and hold bitcoin since bull trend run is near infact we are in bull run, because I don't think the price will go to low as $20k. Next year will make it 4th halving, So don't wait till getting to the next bitcoin halving before holding some reasonable amount of bitcoin.

According to the flow of the price this quarter, we will likely see a bull run before this year ends but it will continue till next year so if you don't have a Bitcoin with you, you better buy one now or a portion of it, if you are poor. I don't think we can fall below $20k so don't hope about it as you will only get disappointed.

The lowest that we can get for now is 25 to 26k dollars but you can start buying today as the price is already at $27k. The first two prices that I mentioned are only my estimation and still not guarantee to happen. May I know why you don't want to use the DCA system when everyone is using it? It's a good system dude and it's twice better than waiting for a dip or bottom price.