Topic: When will Bitcoin catch up with Gold in capitalization? - page 4. (Read 1259 times)

uhh Bitcoin will be worth hundreds of thousands this decade and next decade, and almost certainly leave that range for the millions in the 2040s, not in a century or two.

In a hundred or two hundred years from now, assuming something doesn't happen to make bitcoin stop its growth and reverse course, Bitcoin will definitely be worth tens of millions of dollars. There is no doubt about that.


Some math for you:

100 years of let's say 3% inflation, with no actual real value growth for Bitcoin's value, from $50k would take Bitcoin to $960k. That's just inflation, 2024 $50k = $960k in 2124 with 3% annual inflation. With just 11x real price growth (which is likely in the next 15 years, not 100 years) Bitcoin would be worth $10.5 million. Definitely Bitcoin will be worth in the tens of millions of dollars in 2124, and the hundreds of millions of dollars in 2224. The thing is that the Dollar will be nearly worthless compared to today.

If anyone could do that there would be tons of quadrillion dollar companies and cryptocurrencies. Instead of anyone being able to do these things, nobody has ever done these things.

There's only 1 trillion dollar cryptocurrency, only 7 trillion dollar companies, the highest being 3 trillion, a mere 0.003 of a quadrillion that according to you anyone could do.

Market caps represent the total value of an asset's supply. It's important to know for what it is. It's why we know that Bitcoin is more valuable than a random altcoin. People who don't understand what a market cap is would think that BCH is worth more than SOL because the price is higher, or they are the type of people who think its better to buy some random altcoin than Bitcoin because the altcoin is priced at a fraction of a cent while Bitcoin "costs too much" in the tens of thousands of dollars, and they don't realize nobody cares about the tiny market cap altcoin while Bitcoin is a major trillion dollar asset.

No doubt that Bitcoin can reach the capital amount of gold on this timeline, and even Bitcoin has a chance to win over the gold in this capitalization race. I'm quite curious when it can reach this level most people may predict in this cycle which may sound unrealistic for the rest let's leave it to the time.

For Bitcoin now, I think it's losing its worth as a payment mode due to time to time network cost issues, on the same time people are also now considering Bitcoin as a Liquid gold which gives an indication that people just want Bitcoin to be an asset class not a pehyment mode.

The people will soon realized the difference between a centralized asset and a decentralized one, this is one of the advantage one that can get with Bitcoin adoption, you don't need permission or access from any central authority to be able to invest and hold bitcoin as you can have with gold, the reason that gold is being centralized alone will convince people not to make an investment in gold as the stand to understand the difference privacy, rate, interest and security measures required for gold and which is nothing to bother with bitcoin investment.

Bitcoin could potentially outshine gold in market value because of its limited supply and increasing popularity. When this might happen is anyone's guess, depending on things like regulations, technology improvements and overall economic vibes. Whether it's good for Bitcoin is a mixed bag because some see it as a cool validation while others worry about more rules and market ups and downs. It's a wild ride with no clear answers

Its not only "can Bitcoin surpass gold" [/i]but "should it?". Compared to gold, Bitcoin is like lightning to a lantern's steady illumination. Both contribute to the economy. Bitcoin, 7.1% of gold's market worth, faces a steep climb.

I doubt yet hope for the future. If Bitcoin caught up by 2040, it would require a massive market change and a global reevaluation of "worth".

Will Bitcoin benefit if that happens? A double-edged sword. Obtaining such a status would demonstrate Bitcoin's robustness and acceptance. It might change Bitcoin's status in the economy from currency to reserve asset. This transition may challenge its original function yet leave a digital legacy.

My bet would be around 2030, in a couple cycles, but we will see

And I don't know why we really need to surpassed gold by the way? It is for bragging rights? What significant it can bring to the market anyways? Both are different, only comparison is that both assets are scarce, but after that? I don't know. I don't think that it will be beneficial to surpassed big companies. For sure, we have broken already in the top 10 as we are in bullish momentum specially in the next 2 years.


https://coinmarketcap.com/largest-companies/

But after that when we go back to bear market, market capitalization will obviously go down. So for me, let the market go on it's own course, and no need to compare it to other assets of market value. It will be different as our market is very volatile.

1. I don't see any valid reason why Bitcoin can't surpass Gold?

2. No one can know about that, but it will takes a lot time, at least a decade.

3. Nope, even though Bitcoin isn't yet become the best investment for Average Joe, but government already try to regulate Bitcoin and tightening the laws about Bitcoin. There was a proposal issued by FinCEN to declare any form of privacy methods are illegal, this will force people to lose their privacy.

Some people invest in Bitcoin because the value keep increasing and they can protect their privacy, this could make people to convert their Bitcoin to Monero.

I got data if the gold reserves but for 2021, I am trying to find the latest data has not found. At the end of 2021, it is estimated that 208,874 metric tons of gold already exist. Excluding the unprocessed (in the ground). It is estimated that the current Gold Market Capitalization is around $13,464 T. This capitalization will continue to change as gold mining in the world continues. ^[1]

Other data I got in USD

If you look at this graph, of course, the current capitalization of Bitcoin is very far from gold. But if you look at the increase in capitalization of Gold they rose from increased from about 8k trillion to about 14k trillion US dollars. Whereas Bitcoin was about 1 billion US dollars in 2013 to 1.15 trillion US dollars in November 2021 and the decline for now is around 865 billion.^[2]  There is a difference of about 10 times. If calculated in ATH speculation in 4 years calculated with the supply in circulation it is confusing. LOL. I don't think so in the near future, maybe I'll estimate when I retire from work. CMIIW

1] https://companiesmarketcap.com/gold/marketcap/
2] https://ingoldwetrust.report/chart-gold-bitcoin-marketcap/?lang=en

Yes, but that's like when people wonder if the price will get to $1M, it will get there, but it will take time. On the specific case of overtaking gold I estimate it will take about 3 cycles.


I find the question too simple to be honest. "Good" or "bad" are words that children use because they are not capable of using more complex expressions. If I have to choose between those two so simple, well obviously it will be good, especially for those of us who have Bitcoin, because the purchasing power will have increased a lot.

1. Knowing that Bitcoin is superior to gold in literally all ways besides the bling-bling factor of looking rich in public, of course. If anything, since bitcoin will be far more accessible to people and the fact that it's far easier to store, then I'd argue far higher than gold's marketcap.

2. 5 years:   30% chance
    10 years: 70% chance
    20 years: 90% chance

    ^in my opinion.

3. Of course it is lol.

I'm not pessimistic but it might not happen within anybody's lifetime here. Gold has already established its value for thousands of years. Even after gold has vacated its throne as a currency, central banks are still keeping hoards of gold in their vaults. Gold will always have value. Even outside the realm of money, economics, and finance, gold will remain to be valuable as technologies are using it. Outside technologies, gold is also sought after by jewelers.

But if it happens a hundred years or two from now, it must of course be good for Bitcoin. Bitcoin must already be worth hundreds of thousands of dollars by then.

Bitcoin has not been priced the way Gold is, so I do not always look at them as competitors the way people do. They also do not have the same importance if not for the people's money that makes them assets. Going forward, a tight race between them is possible, especially this time when Bitcoin is now advancing with the ETF arrangements. If it works it may attract more investors and that will surely increase the market capitalization. But Gold is not growing so much and not reducing so much too, this means that it is somewhat stable. It is slowly increasing and reducing in the market capitalization, and at times, it would have a higher cap that will still be significant. I have loved the sustaining part for so long, nevertheless, it is still holding it above $13T in most cases.

But for Bitcoin, I do not have so much to say about it other than it has a bullish and bearish season, it is highly volatile when it comes to market capitalization and so unstable. Unlike Gold, it can drop multiples of its price and liquidity within 2 years, and it can gain it back pretty fast too, even within just a year. Such an asset is highly unpredictable. Coupled with the age, one can only guess the market capitalization but it may not be able to be consistent about it unlike Gold has maintained it on the high side for long.

1B(1btc=$50k)x2=2B(1btc=$100k)
2Bx2=4B
4Bx2=8B
8Bx2=16B

4 halvings
2024 2028 2032 2036

..
now lets use the 4 ATH of
2025 2029 2033 2037
2.8b(1btc of $140k) in 2025
2.8bx2=5.6b in 2029
5.6bbx2=11.2b in 2033
11.2bx2=22.4b in 2037

https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/

Total market cap of gold is more than 13 times higher than Bitcoin market cap. If Bitcoin can have x2 for each halving, it will need about 6 to 7 more halvings to catch gold market cap in 2024.

With this humble expectation (x2 for each halving), it will be achieve in a year of 2064.

If you increase this price expectation from x2 to like x3 in average for future halvings, a target year will be sooner than 2064.

gold went from $1.1k range 13 years ago to $2.2k so in next 13 years might be $3.6k-$4.4k at best.. but bitcoin will in 13 years get 4 more halvings ('24, '28, '32, '36) so bitcoins deflation will outpace fiat..

also gold only went high due to fuel going from $3/gal to $6/gal. fuel to mine gold is coming back down to the $3/gal range so gold can correct down below $2k, so dont expect $4.4k/oz of gold to be a low min.. but a max if inflation continued to 2x over the next 13 years

gold only 2x in 13 year. bitcoin since 2011 has gone $0.30->$50,000(166,666x)

im not suggesting bitcoin is ever going to 166,666x ever again as each halving cycle has seen less and less increments. but bitcoin will healthily outpace inflation

even if each bitcoin cycles ATH only peaks at 2x of last
EG 2025 ATH=$140k
2029 ATH=$280k
2033 ATH=$560k
2037 ATH=$1.12m

the feel of $1.12m will feel like $560k of todays fiat purchasing power(if gold/inflation was to 2x again in next 13 years)

Nothing will change if Bitcoin exceeds gold in terms of market capacity. Some markets are worth more than gold. However, gold will exist, Bitcoin will exist, and the stock market will exist. Bitcoin and gold are two assets that are not related to each other, which means that it is good to invest in Bitcoin and gold to diversify your investment portfolio and Bitcoin will not be a competitor to gold, or if Bitcoin surpasses gold, everyone will abandon gold and invest in Bitcoin.

The assumption that Bitcoin will overtake gold at a price of ~$650k is not correct. With current inflation, the year 2037 will be completely different from 2024, and the value of ~$650k will be completely different from its value in 2037.

not sure why anyone cares about market caps

market caps are not a measure of any real money stored as reserve to then pay out every holder at that $amount
market cap is just a measure of a small/decimal amount of an asset multiplied by asset total count
its never been about money held to reciprocate/fulfil all sells at that price.

there is not $13T of money held to fulfillguarantee all gold
there is not $900b of money held to fulfil/guarantee all btc
there is not $3T of money held to fulfil/guarantee all microsoft shares

market caps are just a unit price * total units
where the price and thus cap can change based on buying or selling just one unit.

anyone can right now create an altcoin with a 1trillion token pre-mine..
sell 0.001 token for $0.10
and at a real world cost of $0.10. create a market cap of $1quadrillion

anyone can right now create company with a 1trillion shares. (metaphorically, though securities commission will have rules)
sell 0.001 shares for $0.10
and at a real world cost of $0.10. create a market cap of $1quadrillion

in the first place, why are we chasing the market performance of gold? why not be grateful that this btc or crypto market 8s already gaining mainstream audience? do remember gold has been with humanity since the beginning of time.
so there's no rush in chasing after the gold market. be grateful that crypto market is getting the adoption of the public and more and more stakeholders are joining in this market. i guess a lot of people already changed their stance towards this market from being labeled as used by fraudsters to being used as legal tender by several governments. you can already see the difference how it evolves thru time.