Topic: When will bitcoin hit the lowest? 1)before 21july 2) 21july-1au 3)after 1 august (Read 1628 times)

My order of events is something like this:

1) Lowest point between now and activation of segwit by whatever means
2) After segwit is activated, we go back to $2500 and stay there
3) As hardfork scenario is near, price crashes again
4) When hardforkers get destroyed, we will hit all time high, $3000+
5) Once the market understands bitcoin will not hardfork, we will hit $10000+

Yes, no one can tell that when is the right time to start buying. But I think currently already a lot of correction happen and it can go some more down but if your long term players then shouldn't wait anymore start buying in small quantities. No need to wait for any specific date and time because we may not be able to catch those big movements.

There is no such thing as Bitcoin insurance but it may be worth considering entering into positions slowly now.
It could go down a bit more but the question is how much risk do you want to take aiming for the bottom when it could just as quickly go up to the next level, prices are already down 50% from last high so it's a balanced bet now.

the drop has slowed down significantly and as history proves these things always happen like this when price changes a lot but a long time before the dates people are waiting for. in this case Aug 1. and then they stop.

for now i say we are nearing the stop point and there will probably be some small rise (bull trap probably) and then back to around $1900 again.

if the signalling that is going to start soon reaches the high support promised, there is a very good chance of the start of a price rise with a big bear trap in the start of it and a good leg up above $2200 for starters.

So if within the pre-defined signalling period an amount less than 269 blocks signals readiness, the whole signalling process must start over? Can you make up time or "blocks" by increasing signalling say to 90%-95%? I foresee miners playing some games to generate a final massive panic shakeout.

I love it reading this possible scenario and I am really hoping that 21 July can be the day when the bloodbath can stop and the fall can be reversed. Although I am confident that soon Bitcoin can be able to recover big, still it can be an uphill battle by then and we know that time of the essence here...time is money so the more time needed for the recovery then we are all losing money.

Now, there is no guarantee that this can happen in July 21 so we must all be prepared for the worst...as we are all dealing here with realities. Miners are people who might not be acting with rationality and can just be pursuing their own profit-focused business interest...sometimes to the detriment of us ordinary and small Bitcoin holders.

lol, no one can answer u this.... u just gotta wait till that day

My thought ;
A lot of panic happened because of Segwit,Segwit2x or whatever they called it.worst case it will only down deeper from now on right ? And then recover again just like before (even if it's fail,we will see another Segwit in th future).a lot of people panicked because they don't know what will happen,activated or not ? But based on current market likely many people try to go out from bitcoin,right?

how about we see this from other point ? Something like 'an issue created to triger a down trend before Segwit' ? Doesn't that mean someone or group trying to maximize this opportunity ? If we looked back to 2014ish,we can see the different between that time and this time.

(Of course, from my view as a trader)

There's basically no chance that "UAHF" will have any effect on Aug 1. It has no economic support and very little miner support.

IMO there are two factors in play:

I've long been thinking that $2000-3000 feels unnaturally high, and may well be a bubble. The 1-year low is like $400 or something, keep in mind. There have been a lot of upward changes in fundamentals, especially the subsidy halving, but a repeat of the 2013-2014 pattern (scaled up) wouldn't surprise me too much.

But the recent drop is almost certainly due to fork panic, and that's way overblown. Let's run through the scenarios:

 - Segwit2x fails to activate SegWit in time, BIP148 fails (my prediction): the status quo continues for 6-12 months, everything is more-or-less fine. I don't think that the market would mind continuing the status quo.
 - Segwit2x activates segwit in time, BIP148 therefore doesn't go off: We get SegWit, which I think would be a minor upward force. The market probably doesn't care that much, but it makes for a good headline at least. Segwit2x could cause further messiness in 3 months, but that's forever away in BTC terms.
 - Segwit2x fails to activate Segwit in time, BIP148 gets miners to activate SegWit quickly: Same as above.
 - Segwit2x fails to activate Segwit in time, BIP148 has significant economic force, but miners don't join it until days later (or never): This is the main eventuality motivating the various warnings, but it's really unlikely IMO, less than a 1% chance. It'll cause a couple days of "downtime" and a massive amount of confusion, but at the end Bitcoin will still be working. And you can keep your coins safe by following the instructions posted on bitcoin.org or in my forum post.
 
If I knew for sure it was all the latter factor, then I would be very inclined to buy right now. But the fork panic may have just kicked off a long-lasting bubble correction; I don't know.

This says 87.7 percent supports segwit and approve which is higher than %85.
https://coin.dance/blocks

Can you elaborate what do you mean? When is the best time to buy bitcoin?

I was thinking in buying an entire BTC at $1000.

What is the best date to do it? Or will it not be possible?

Yea I think that too. I don't thing august 1st will be the doomsday everyone thinks it will be. By then the prices will have gone up quite a bit I believe. For now I'm going to sit tight with some popcorn and watch what will happen in the next couple of days.

I expect a lot of volatility, but don't think the price will fall much more than it already has.  I think that post 21.July the price will start to rise as the future situation of Bitcoin starts to become clearer.

I personally wouldn't be holding any coins on exchanges, if we fork, I want to know that I have my coins under control, not that someone gives me me my coins from 1 fork back.  They can also block withdrawals, which I would not be happy with.

If you don't hold it, you don't own it is what the PM guys say, well something similar is true for Bitcoin too.

Probably over half the people with coins on exchanges won't move them before the 1st of August. In fact they probably haven't even noticed all the commotion about a fork and won't buy or sell either. I think we will run out of panic sellers before 21 july and Bitcoin's price will begin to rise before then. There's a limited number of coin holders that take an interest in the latest developments, and plenty of other coin holders who don't read  the news.

The lowest price $700 is gone, if Bitcoin not have issue as 2014, the price can't crash under $1000, around $1500-$1200 is best base for buy and long. In my opinion, before deathline Bitcoin will make a big pump and a huge number people will take profit and create a panic selling after that happens

What is lowest for you? for me the lowest is $700 and I don't think we could ever hit that low, but going down as $1500 is not far from happening by the next week, each day nearing the deadline more people dump, lucky those people buying so many cheap coins.

Most of the people are always too late. If they wanted to make a real difference, and a worthwile action, they should have taken profits at +$2500 levels. Everyone doing it right now not only shows how greedy people are, but also how uninformed people are. If you invest in something, and especially in something with a very important event upcoming, you should know how and when to take the necessary actions to reduce your overall risk exposure. I seriously wonder how many people will end up withdrawing their coins from any sort of service before the 1st of August. After all the 'hack' incidents, people are still too lazy to take care of storing their coins themselves.

I think the real drop will come before 31 July. People tend to put off important things like withdrawing from exchanges and a few days before August 1 is when panic will set in. Until then we will see small drops in price.

if by 21 July the SegWit2x team delivers as they have promised and the SegWit signalling starts with the 85%-95% of the current hashrate that is signalling NYA then that is going to be enough reason for the price to rise.

i will expect a LOT of FUD by that date saying miners will back out and stuff like that, even after the signalling started (like what they did with LTC and caused the crash) but in the end if things go as they are planned 21 July may be the reversal date.