Topic: When will BTC reach $50,000? - page 6. (Read 9519 times)

It's not only a matter of adoption (by users)
the formula should include a relation of speculators vs users.
iow how many users need to adopt bitcoin for x amount of speculators to keep bitcoin from rising out of control (bubble pop).
with a 12K% profit in 30 months (if you hodl) the speculation part is covered.
whale speculators could drive it up to that price range today, but they can't profit of that, because we lack the actual user base.
If the prices rise the userbase expands, but only to a certain level. the other side is that if the userbase expands so does the influx of speculators that pump the prices
The s-curve nature of bitcoin ensures both at a high rate. It will gain momentum with every leg up.
only one major retailer is needed to get things going.

20k is small step upwards from where we are now when dealing with exponential growth. it could be here a lot quicker than most think

I think we won't reach prices above 20000 before 2016, the adoption is increasing but not so fast!

A better question would be the average duration a user stays on the forum and from that interpolate the real adoption rate
That said I think it's difficult to determine from the stats that data.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=stats

We can assume the percentage of new bitcoin users who register stay roughly the same. Whether or not this is a reasonable assumption, I'm not sure.

Well this is an interesting way of putting users and value into perspective so at minimum props for sharing this

That said I think Bitcoin is trailing along an S Shaped adoption curve and the rate of growth is exponential and not a linear trendline
However the price estimate makes sense based on your lines so maybe it is a log of some function.

Ah and in 2030?
I think it makes more sense to compare it with other technologies and the rate of adoption (compare to supply of money - M0 or M1 of the world).

M1 is worldwide about 35 trill. USD. If every transaction has one part in Bitcoin, and there would be a 100% reserve (coinbase has all coins it should have), we would get 1 750 000$.
More realistic would be, that every 20th transaction is in Bitcoin (5%) with a 50% fractional reserve which makes it 40 000$.
To that the value of Bitcoin decrease if it is volatile and not the legal tender and you can't pay taxes with it. The value would be higher if it has other values like small transaction fees or good store of value.

The growth of the internet:
1995 there were 16mio. users. This was 0.4% of the world population. Is Bitcoin already in that stage? I don't think so. There are less.
Until 2000 this number doubled every year.
Until 2005 it was 25% every year.
Until 2012 about 10% every year.
http://www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm

So, but we need to get to the 5% adoption rate. This was around the early 2000. So let's say in 5 years every 20th transaction in the world is with Bitcoin with 50% reserve.

On the other hand the price of the internet related firms was not the same like the real adoption. Remember that dotcom bubble. It is highly possible, that there will be a big hype about Bitcoin and it could be worth a million USD - for a very short time.

In 10 years with a likelihood of 1%. 

Don't wait just create!
Make your own killer application. Has multiple benefits; you not only cross the chasm you will have the opportunity to seriously increase your btc holdings

agreed but who says people that buy/use btc will even register here? we don't know the ratio of (btc) users that do.

That's not even the only flaw. Clearly a factor 5 increase in new member does not equal a factor 5 increase in price.

Value rises quicker than price. The correct formula may be a bit tricky to calculate though. Especially with hose rough approximations instead of more exact numbers.

I am waiting for a killer application for Bitcoin to really take off (a Trezor device or something else that will make Bitcoin cross the chasm).

How about food from the supermarket down the road or the house for sale in the next street. All the important stuff still requires fiat. Ofcourse i can make an offer in btc and maybe the'll even take the offer (if they do, it will likely be a bitpay transaction which converts it to....fiat)

The flaw is the linear scale
Bitcoin does not do that apply log10 and you wil see

You should not look into the future but listen to Churchill:


“The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.”

― Winston Churchill

Many linear predictions, here is another based on forum data:

2010 new members : 1 to 700 -> 1$
2011 new members : 800 to 14000 -> 25$
2012 new members : 2000 to 3000 -> 7$
2013 new members : 2000 to 30.000 -> 121$
2014 new members : 17.000 to 46.000 (so far) -> 650$

simplified:
2010 new members : to 1000 -> 1$
2011 new members : to 10.000 -> 25$
2012 new members : to 3000 -> 7$
2013 new members : to 30.000 -> 121$
2014 new members : to 50.000 (so far) -> 650$

1000 to 50.000 in 5 years. 1 to 650
50.000 to 2.500.000 in next 5 year. 5 times as many members -> 16.250$ per coin in 2019
Assuming linear scale 10.000$ in ~3.5 years. around 2016-2018

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/dec/12/local/la-me-ln-lamborghini-bitcoin-20131212
what else do you need? 

No it isn't but since btc will appreciate at a quicker rate dan fiat will decline, it is a handy tool to measure what a coin will/can buy you.

At this point in time even if btc will hit 10k tomorrow it still will not buy you everything you need or want unless you convert it to fiat first. I can buy anything with fiat and a few things in btc.
so for the time being we measure up to fiat

people keep forgetting that piles of fiat is not the goal, buying stuff is the goal.
by the pace of fiat printing 50,000$ could happen within 2-3 years the only problem is it won't buy you anything.
a better question would be when will 1 bitcoin get you 1kg of gold.

2009: 0
2010: .1
2011: 1
2012: 10
2013: 100
2014: 1,000
2015: 10,000
2016: 100,000
2017: 1,000,000

Either Spring 2015 or Winter 2015: