When will BTC's dominance of crypto market cap drop below 50%?

CoinClarity

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Quote from: Pursuer on January 11, 2018, 03:04:09 AM

the fees in coins that are similar to bitcoin are based on supply and demand. the supply is the block space and the demand is the number of transactions that want to get that space.
in Doge for example the blocks are empty which means there is no competition to get in that block space average transaction per block is 10!

Dogecoin rarely has empty blocks, if ever!

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/dogecoin-transactions.html

Let's say we use 7k transactions per day - its lowest level ever, achieved in Jan 2017 - and given that there are a maximum of 1,440 blocks a day (its closer to 1400), that's still an average of 4.86 transactions per block. And as we all know the dogetrain has been rolling recently, and there are currently an average of 23.9 transactions per block, or between 2-3 transactions every second.

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactions-median_transaction_fee-doge.html

The transaction fee has accelerated in terms of $$ along with the price of DOGE, but its still incredibly affordable compared to BTC or even ETH.

Quote from: Pursuer on January 11, 2018, 03:04:09 AM

and if this changes in the future and it gains more usage, the competition will start and fees will go up. as it has gone up in ethereum which you think has superior technology!

It is superior technology. Not saying its not without its own flaws and bugs (the DAO obviously), but it has over 1,000,000 lines of code, compared to bitcoin's 100,000. And I'm not saying this makes it 10x more superior, but there's just far more you can do with it ala its API and the EVM, including exploit flaws in wallet code designs, as we are all aware of.

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Quote from: CoinClarity on January 11, 2018, 02:18:43 AM

Except Dogecoin, RaiBlocks and several other coins that have very small or no fees. The average Dogecoin transaction fee is 1.1 DOGE.

the fees in coins that are similar to bitcoin are based on supply and demand. the supply is the block space and the demand is the number of transactions that want to get that space.
in Doge for example the blocks are empty which means there is no competition to get in that block space average transaction per block is 10!

and if this changes in the future and it gains more usage, the competition will start and fees will go up. as it has gone up in ethereum which you think has superior technology!

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Quote from: bryant.coleman on January 07, 2018, 12:23:46 AM

This doesn't make any sense. A completely scam coin (XRP) is now the no.2 crypto-currency. I am sure that some big fish (may be from the Wall Street) is trying to manipulate the crypto-market. How can you explain the XRP prices rising by so much? If it was BCH or ETH, or even XMR, then it was still explainable. But XRP? It is a ponzi scheme.

That's easy: it was designed to be a banking coin, and its had some success being adopted already.

https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/902309/Ripple-bitcoin-challenge-Price-surge-of-6-80-steal-crypto-crown

CoinClarity

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Quote from: hatshepsut93 on January 06, 2018, 08:29:50 PM

Quote from: CoinClarity on January 06, 2018, 07:52:29 PM

But the truth is, its no longer usable as a practical currency; its being rebranded as "digital gold."
This may effect the price negatively as more of "wall street's finest" catch on to this fact.

Meanwhile you have a flood of new alts like RaiBlocks rushing to take its place...

Its going to be an interesting year.

This is misguiding, no one is redefining Bitcoin

Actually quite a few people are redefining it:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/keiser-envisions-100000-bitcoin-high
https://cointelegraph.com/news/segwit2xs-failure-confirms-bitcoins-status-as-digital-gold
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7jjxh7/why_bitcoin_could_turn_into_digital_gold/
https://www.reddit.com/r/btc/comments/7d8arb/bitcoin_as_digital_gold_is_bad_for_crypto_adoption/

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on January 06, 2018, 08:29:50 PM

it is simply a reality that on-chain fees of any cryptocurrency are getting expensive when it is hitting its limits

Except Dogecoin, RaiBlocks and several other coins that have very small or no fees. The average Dogecoin transaction fee is 1.1 DOGE.

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on January 06, 2018, 08:29:50 PM

The fact that heavily centralized coins like Ripple and Iota are skyrocketing only proves that crypto market is irrational and speculative, people don't really care about technology, they are grabbing quick money.

Hasn't it always been this way in the cryptospace? There's people genuinely interested in advancement of the technology and then there's people looking to make a quick buck. As far as I can tell, money entering the space has always been dominated by the latter.

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on January 06, 2018, 08:29:50 PM

In this scenario it's normal to see BTC dominance going down, I won't even be surprised if some coin will flip Bitcoin, but technologically Bitcoin is far superior to any altcoin out there

I have to disagree with this as well. Ethereum is far more advanced, so is NEM, NXT and more recently, RaiBlocks and Cardano. They just had far more people working on them while it seems like bitcoin was originally developed by a handful of individuals at most.

Quote from: hatshepsut93 on January 06, 2018, 08:29:50 PM

while most altcoins have snake oil salesmen.

Can't disagree with that.

bryant.coleman

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This doesn't make any sense. A completely scam coin (XRP) is now the no.2 crypto-currency. I am sure that some big fish (may be from the Wall Street) is trying to manipulate the crypto-market. How can you explain the XRP prices rising by so much? If it was BCH or ETH, or even XMR, then it was still explainable. But XRP? It is a ponzi scheme.

amaydel

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Talking about dominance means there something to do with the demand of people on bitcoin. At the end of the day, it's always the demand that dictates the dominance of a crypto currency, IMO. So as the demand is there, then bitcoin will always dominate in the cryptoworld.

hatshepsut93

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Quote from: CoinClarity on January 06, 2018, 07:52:29 PM

But the truth is, its no longer usable as a practical currency; its being rebranded as "digital gold."
This may effect the price negatively as more of "wall street's finest" catch on to this fact.

Meanwhile you have a flood of new alts like RaiBlocks rushing to take its place...

Its going to be an interesting year.

This is misguiding, no one is redefining Bitcoin, it is simply a reality that on-chain fees of any cryptocurrency are getting expensive when it is hitting its limits, and on-chain capacity can only be increased with trade-offs between decentralization, which defeats the whole purpose of cryptocurrency in the first place. The fact that heavily centralized coins like Ripple and Iota are skyrocketing only proves that crypto market is irrational and speculative, people don't really care about technology, they are grabbing quick money. In this scenario it's normal to see BTC dominance going down, I won't even be surprised if some coin will flip Bitcoin, but technologically Bitcoin is far superior to any altcoin out there, and it also has the biggest and the most talented team of developers, while most altcoins have snake oil salesmen.

CoinClarity

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What's interesting is that BTC did come back up -- its at $17k right now.

_AND_ its market cap dominance fell to a measly 35% over the last three weeks!

It actually dropped below 50% on Dec. 18th, or three days after my last post in this thread.

I also believe BTC will continue to reign supreme in market cap size for quite some time.

But the truth is, its no longer usable as a practical currency; its being rebranded as "digital gold."
This may effect the price negatively as more of "wall street's finest" catch on to this fact.

Meanwhile you have a flood of new alts like RaiBlocks rushing to take its place...

Its going to be an interesting year.

Silberman

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Quote from: CoinClarity on December 16, 2017, 08:00:52 PM

Quote from: gentlemand on December 16, 2017, 07:54:08 PM

Altcoins had 2015 and 2016 and 2017 too. In case you hadn't noticed ETH and XMR was in the cents in 2015.

They all went mental while Bitcoin sat there like a lonely turd at sunset.

Such poetic imagery... love it.

You can't deny that bitcoin went mental this year, though. I mean, c'mon, up an additional $1500 in the last 24 hours?

Now that Wall Street has their fat sausage fingers on it, I expect it to drop like a rock once there are bitcoin ETFs and futures markets that allow people to "short" or otherwise bet against bitcoin. I don't foresee a DASH or ZEC ETF in the near future, however.

While the ETF may affect negatively the price of bitcoin the question is how long that is going to last, what I mean is they are trying to limit a small market like bitcoin, but what happens if it keeps growing as it seems it is going to be the case, how much money they will need to put in those short trades to keep the price of bitcoin suppressed and for how long they can do that with the economies of the world as weak as they are.

giveen

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This won't happen anytime soon. I do agree with you that btc being the main in purchasing of alts indirectly the price is surely having a negative effect but this helps the overall market in the long run.
Currently alts are being purchased because of the bullish trend in most situations in end the money used to buy alts ends up with btc. This is pumping of alt so victim is btc when btc get's pumped alts suffer. Every action has a reaction simple.

CoinClarity

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on December 19, 2017, 01:45:02 AM

OP, If you are biting your nails in anxiety, I suggest you relax and wait for the "long over due" correction, or some of you would call it a "crash"? You should then wait for our signal giver, kwukduck. If he says something like "Bitcoin is now in a reversal, a bear market is coming!", that is really a good time to buy.

But if he does not say anything, then that is the time to bite your nails and be anxious. Hahaha. I will be buying the dip either way.

I'm not too heavily invested in any one coin -- not more than I can afford to lose. So I would say I'm not anxious about that. And I bite my nails anyway. Bad habit never kicked since 3rd grade.

I agree with you about buying in the dips, of which I think this is one. I suspect BTC will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

Wind_FURY

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OP, If you are biting your nails in anxiety, I suggest you relax and wait for the "long over due" correction, or some of you would call it a "crash"? You should then wait for our signal giver, kwukduck. If he says something like "Bitcoin is now in a reversal, a bear market is coming!", that is really a good time to buy.

But if he does not say anything, then that is the time to bite your nails and be anxious. Hahaha. I will be buying the dip either way.

JimboToronto

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You're never too old to think young.

2017 could very well come to be remembered as the year of the altcoin fad, the year of "ICO"s and token-mania, the year leading to fortunes lost on dreams of rival cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin will live on.

magneto

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Quote from: CoinClarity on December 15, 2017, 08:22:02 PM

Its currently sitting at about 53%. Its simply mind-blowing that even at record prices for BTC, all the altcoins are rising at break-neck speeds, which I assume is largely due to the dark hand of Wall Street. And as BTC is simply long overdue for a correction, I suspect BTC's dominance could fall within a matter of weeks, if not days..

"To HODL or not to HODL, that is the question." - Shakeyhandspeare

Altcoins are getting pumped as a whole today, i thought i actually saw bitcoin dominance decrease to nearly under 50% today and now it's recovered back up to nearly 51%. So we're basically hanging around that half BTC/half altcoin region.

Eventually i think we will see bitcoin dominance crash just like back in March. Altcoins are increasing in price fast and bitcoin will too, probably to $25k soon but i just don't think it's going to match alt's growth.

In the end though, this is a good time to buy bitcoin and dump alts since the ratio is so low. It will recover eventually to 90%.

timerland

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Quote from: CoinClarity on December 15, 2017, 08:22:02 PM

Its currently sitting at about 53%. Its simply mind-blowing that even at record prices for BTC, all the altcoins are rising at break-neck speeds, which I assume is largely due to the dark hand of Wall Street. And as BTC is simply long overdue for a correction, I suspect BTC's dominance could fall within a matter of weeks, if not days..

"To HODL or not to HODL, that is the question." - Shakeyhandspeare

Bitcoin has already dropped below 50% in terms of dominance before. So it's really not a surprise if it does again. No idea when it will happen though, it's really entirely up to the movements of altcoins and bitcoin and that case change really fast.

Personally though, i believe that bitcoin dominance is actually going to go up a lot in the future. I don't see a reason why it can't be above 80% regularly as it has for many years, until the huge alt bubble came and basically every altcoin was going up.

Since bitcoin is bullish, and when bitcoin goes up alts usually go down, i expect the dominance level to stay the same level or even increase in the next few weeks.

jtipt

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Even if BTC's market cap dominance drops below 50%, no other one altcoin is going to surpass BTC's market cap. The collective market cap of altcoins means nothing, the next altcoin in market cap after bitcoin is ETH which has 4 times less market cap than btc. So even if the market cap dominance drops below 50% BTC will still remain the king of cryptos it won't change until some single coin surpass its marketcap.

jimbo2000

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Quote from: CoinClarity on December 15, 2017, 08:22:02 PM

Its currently sitting at about 53%. Its simply mind-blowing that even at record prices for BTC, all the altcoins are rising at break-neck speeds, which I assume is largely due to the dark hand of Wall Street. And as BTC is simply long overdue for a correction, I suspect BTC's dominance could fall within a matter of weeks, if not days..

"To HODL or not to HODL, that is the question." - Shakeyhandspeare

I think it will either be within a few days or if not it will be a few months time, alts may make it above 50% during this pump that they're enjoying but bitcoin is readying itself to pump above 20k and then alts will have a period where they suffer. So if not before then then when bitcoin pauses again at whatever price that may be and alts enjoy their day.

CoinClarity

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Quote from: Herbert2020 on December 18, 2017, 02:32:12 AM

you see, based on my experience and from what i have seen so far, every time bitcoin drops, altcoins also drop. so i guess the real question is "why do you think this will be different than other previous ones?"

Really? In my experience I've witnessed the opposite: when bitcoin goes up, altcoins go down because people are cashing out their alts for btc, then their btc for fiat. Then when bitcoin goes down, suddenly it becomes easier to buy alts and they go up. When the bubble does burst, people will be looking for other investment alternatives. And as the top alts becomes less tied to the price of BTC, they tend to go up either way... Its easy to purchase ETH and BCH with fiat now, so you can largely skip the intermediary step of having to buy BTC to get alts.

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Quote from: CoinClarity on December 18, 2017, 01:48:33 AM

When the bubble does burst (and I'm strongly of the opinion that it someday will -- don't ask me when), a bunch of money will flow into altcoins. That's why I'm furthering my proclamation of 2018 as Year of the Altcoin.

if we assume you are correct and there in fact is a bitcoin bubble and also we assume it is going to burst soon-ish then why do you think altcoins are going to rise?

you see, based on my experience and from what i have seen so far, every time bitcoin drops, altcoins also drop. so i guess the real question is "why do you think this will be different than other previous ones?"

CoinClarity

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When the bubble does burst (and I'm strongly of the opinion that it someday will -- don't ask me when), a bunch of money will flow into altcoins. That's why I'm furthering my proclamation of 2018 as Year of the Altcoin.

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