Topic: When will fiat money lasts? Can anyone predict it? (Read 835 times)

In the material "The Next Financial Crisis," Deutsche Bank analysts suggested that China's rather sudden integration into the world economy in the late 1970s. and a very favorable shift in the demographic situation since the 1980s. could contribute to the creation of a modern situation that has further exacerbated financial crises in recent decades.

The argument is based on the fact that the positive shock in the labor market from China and the demographic data of developed countries between 1980-2015. allowed to control inflation from the outside, as the surge in global supply of labor in the period of rapid globalization reduced wages.

As inflation is controlled from the outside, it has given governments and central banks the luxury of responding to every crisis and shock with increasing leverage, an increasingly lenient monetary policy and the ability to print more and more money. This shock of disinflation, perhaps, "saved" the currency of the currency after the rampant inflation of the 1970s. immediately after the collapse of the Bretton Woods Gold Standard from 1971

If this theory is correct, then any changes in the demographic supercycle can create problems for the monetary system. According to this scenario, inflation will grow from outside on the background of the fact that the working-age population no longer increases.

Central banks and governments that "sought help on the side" with a 35-year structural decline in inflation can not prevent this growth, since raising interest rates to the required levels could lead to a serious economic contraction, given the huge debt burden the economy has to face .

Therefore, they are forced to give priority to low interest rates and nominal growth compared to inflation control, which may mark the beginning of the end of the world phyat currency system that began with the abandonment of the Bretton Woods system back in 1971.

Fiat Currencies and Inflation

Almost throughout the financial history until the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in 1971, most currencies were provided by precious metals in the overwhelming majority of cases.

In the previous century or so, these systems periodically collapsed in many countries against the backdrop of wars, and especially during the Great Depression of the 1930s. Nevertheless, countries, as a rule, returned to a certain likeness of the peg to precious metals after high inflation. Figure 1 depicts the global average inflation rate for 800 years, and then stands out after 1900, when inflation rose relative to the long-term period in history.


In Figure 2, this is reflected on an annual basis, and, as can be seen, 700 years before the 20th century, inflation and deflation were roughly on par with the gradual upward trend in inflation.


We live in times of extremely low inflation, whereas history suggests that now is the time of high inflation. Indeed, looking at the graph on the right in Figure 2 shows that since 1933 we have not had a single year of negative (median) global inflation. However, the 35-year disinflationary period began in 1980, which led to a drop in inflation from the maximum levels at the beginning of this decade to what could be the minimum in the middle of this decade.

Inflation since 1971 - loss of control and a positive disinflation shock.

In the first decade of the world's fiat currency systems, after 1971, one of the biggest increases in global inflation in history was noted. Although some of the blame for this was the shocks in the oil market, the fact that the shackles of the Bretton Woods system were lifted and the countries were able to borrow more freely and find ways to liberalize finance and credit undoubtedly contributed to higher inflation. Nominal income from gold was 32.2% per annum in the 1970s. compared with a long-term income of 1.97% per annum since 1800.

However, after 1980, a miracle happened, which many attributed to the Fed under the leadership of Volcker, who tamed the inflationary dragon. Obviously, their tougher policies helped, but was there a global structural history that provided phenomenal disinflation, a fair wind from now on and does it change direction now?

China and the demographic data of developed countries

An effective global labor force began to grow around 1980, thanks to natural global demography and China, which opened its economy to the outside world in the late 1970s. Figure 3 shows the situation of working-age citizens aged 15-64 in the more developed regions and in China, where the second column shows the situation with China before 1980 to reflect its practically closed economy up to this point and an effective surge in the global labor offers thereafter. The impact of this was first reflected in 1990, and this is reflected in the graph.


Obviously, this is a very simplified picture, and considering the world as a whole, it is worth taking into account more countries, not just China, since countries with lower salaries have evolved from relatively closed low-income countries

I think fiats will continue to exist parallal to the btcs or other digital currencies because it will neither outrun btcs nor even overta

I support that the fiats never run out because I don't have faith on these btcs and cant accept them as global currency

I don't know because I am a newbie too and want to know about it

let's be clear, even crypto won't replace fiat

As long as people don't want to go back to barter, we will always have fiat.

Sooner or later, people will realize that the governments are exploiting them with the help of the banks and corporations, and fiat money is one of their major tools to commit this exploitation. Once this becomes clear, people will start using currencies which can't be controlled by the government, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

I think fiats are going to last forever and without any sole prediction of its price course

In my own opinion I think fiat money will not lasts because it is more easy to use and anyone can use it.No one can predict what will happen to the Fiat money.

As long as institutions/governments exist there will be FIAT. But you're using the word 'FIAT'. There have been some interpretations suggesting that cryptocurrencies are a subset of FIAT category - Visit these links
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/are-cryptocurrencies-just-more-fiat-money_us_5a385087e4b0c12e6337b014
https://www.quora.com/Is-Bitcoin-a-fiat-currency-I-want-to-know-whether-there-is-anything-backing-Bitcoin-not-if-there-is-any-projection-of-its-future-movement-in-terms-of-USD-What-is-the-process-when-a-new-Bitcoin-is-mined-Austrian-economics-perspectives-appreciated/answer/Wellington-W.-Sculley?share=6afeff36&srid=zZb2

Difficult to predict because fiat currency is a means of exchange used by a country for the transactions of its citizens. Although currently there is a cryptocurrency that uses blockchain technology, will not replace the use of fiat currency. Because not all countries in the world can apply it, because it is collided with policies, rules and infrastructure of technology such as the availability of internet network covering all regions in a country

There are times when money is really worthless, even gold. That is, if the world is already very difficult to produce food. Prolonged famine. then the money will be abandoned and re-use the barter system as when money hasn't been found.
But I don't know when that happens, just describe some things that are likely to be the cause of the money will run out because it is worthless.

Fiat is still the only payment method in the developing countries where you can't use a card to pay for products. It will last as long as third world economies will - that is literally forever. There are still tribes and peoples that are 50 years past the average income countries, not to mention the golden million

Is there an article that dollar is going down right now? I think fiat will not going to lasts. It is important because it is already what we use to it for a long time. It is hard to replace fiat right now. Digital currency is different from fiat and they are different from each other, each of them has its own uses.

I don't think it will happen in this generation. It would be difficult if the fiat money will be gone. And if ever it would be replaced by cryptocurrency, it will be hard, for example, China banned cryptocurrency since they can't control it. Also the government won't approve it. Crypto and fiat will just co-exist.

Currencies go up and down all the time. Its the same with bitcoin and crypto. Even if the dollar goes down, that doesn't mean that fiat is in trouble of vanishing. These things are intermittent and volatile. And fiat will probably last until the entire current system crashes

A long time because it will always be manipulated.

When will fiat last? Today. In my opinion. Lol.

I agree with you. Money can not disappear in a short time, it will take more than a decade.

Currency prediction is one of the many difficult prediction, but I think we'll still need fiat for some other long time. though crypto will reign in the few years ahead, governments won't allow crypto to take over fiat.

I think that money won't disappear...even if the cryptocurrency is established, money will remain in constant use